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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, to say I have my doubts about that GFS 12z is an understatement. 

If it even remotely comes off. Every Professional long range forecast and every seasonal model would be wrong. 

Pretty much like last year!! Much to my disappointment then but joy now 🙂   

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Great run. Shame it’s snowless for most of England (south of Leeds) but we would have to be incredibly unlucky to miss at least 1 decent snow fall. Lines up a frigid lead up to Christmas!

8D1EA147-AB51-4E03-AB54-4C8DB289D9BD.png

BA90BF6C-3C72-4B9F-81DA-C6826E682F8C.png

You jest? h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png:oldgrin:

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16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hope it ends  on a bang. England is about the only country in Europe without snow cover 😤 

FC633D1D-BDB5-4CBC-9575-DA3298E3F138.png

Get the cold in first 😂

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8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That was an amazing run . I’m buzzing 😎
The beast now incoming at the end of the run . 

915566A7-F918-4B00-A988-C7774B063322.png

1D35D755-A737-4859-A3A3-79D37310664B.png

C73C2ACE-C7B5-416A-8909-8432DED213A7.png

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Crazy run.........

If only. Anyway, still look at the NH profile at the end. Anywhere remotely near this and the pros will be hiding under the salt.

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It's quite epic via gfs 12z..which comes 2nd in verification in sister runs..

And let's face it we've been saying minimal wedge placement..and cell exactions mean possible major uturn in forecast perplexion..

So it's possibly as right as it is WRONG.

Great evolution...and why not indeed... not a million miles from some embarrasing *LRFs...

Again..'perhaps'!!😉

Edited by tight isobar

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The low pressure systems have been tracking unusually since October,GFS looks very possible to me 

cold to very cold with snow on the cards.

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Just to keep us grounded - the control in FI is horrific for coldies!! 

C8CB8FAA-E34B-49D7-9636-53E581C86D92.png

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22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You jest? h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png:oldgrin:

It’s a very cold run no doubt, but for most of England it’s snowless. As I said though we would be very unlucky not see snow in such cold air with those lows floating around. FWIW i’d bank this run though given the chance! Fingers crossed for a good ECM ..

Edited by Tim Bland

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29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes T120 - If the system in the atlantic goes under the main low it all collapses...

 

Thank you! one would sense then EC120 / EC144 ( with its  strong reputation for accuracy ) in about 1 hour is crucial on this!  – time to  pour a little stiffener to settle the nerves... looks like a S**T or bust moment is upon us in about 60 mins gang… 😊

Edited by TSNWK

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Wow, exciting 2nd half to that run!!!

Still showing a lot of snow middle of next week for Scotland and the north of England, but it's the eye-catching finale with the Scandinavian High and Beast from the East (where's TEITS?!) which will catch the eye.

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26 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Great run. Shame it’s snowless for most of England (south of Leeds) but we would have to be incredibly unlucky to miss at least 1 decent snow fall. Lines up a frigid lead up to Christmas!

8D1EA147-AB51-4E03-AB54-4C8DB289D9BD.png

BA90BF6C-3C72-4B9F-81DA-C6826E682F8C.png

fantasy chart but not snowless, should be widespread snow off north sea, away from W Wales

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6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

fantasy chart but not snowless, should be widespread snow off north sea, away from W Wales

Indeed. It shows heavy snow in the north midweek.

Edited by West is Best

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS 12z look good again..

Edging closer..

image.thumb.png.cb7dbd4c96eb0988f84bc5eb24af7297.png

It is        of course  for me as in most runs  ecm is the main man  get that onboard at 144h  then we are in business   

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS 12z look good again..

Edging closer..

image.thumb.png.cb7dbd4c96eb0988f84bc5eb24af7297.png

Is this the slide or not slide zone - either way all routes seem to head cold anyway. 

7F690C19-F3DE-4B7F-A274-478DEF8DA5DE.jpeg

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41 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Great run. Shame it’s snowless for most of England (south of Leeds) but we would have to be incredibly unlucky to miss at least 1 decent snow fall. Lines up a frigid lead up to Christmas!

8D1EA147-AB51-4E03-AB54-4C8DB289D9BD.png

BA90BF6C-3C72-4B9F-81DA-C6826E682F8C.png

Not that it matters at this point as it’s a while off but I’m pretty sure if we get to this point as the models are showing there’s no way that south of Leeds will be dry lol. Wind coming in from the north east with low pressure in the south east there will be showers pushing well in land at the very least.

id just be happy to get to this point first and then see where the surprises come from as I’m sure there will be many

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20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s a very cold run no doubt, but for most of England it’s snowless. As I said though we would be very unlucky not see snow in such cold air with those lows floating around. FWIW i’d bank this run though given the chance! Fingers crossed for a good ECM ..

If the cold comes in anything like the runs are showing, I wouldn't worry about the detail as many a feature will pop up at short notice. Always a lottery where and when but fun to see churn out nonetheless. Long may it continue. Get that cold in! 

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Ecm goes with gfs at 96 hours!!little low forms at 96 hours near the eastern states like the gfs!!ukmo does not have it at all!ukmo big outlier early judging from the ecm 96 hour chart!!could still go tits up!!

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