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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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37 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

312 hours away 🤔

True, but the chart reflects a more likely scenario as GP has just attested to. 

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And, anywho, there's still plenty of wiggle-room within the GEFS 06Z ensembles:🤔

t850Leicestershire.png    prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png    prcpLeicestershire.png

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

And, anywho, there's still plenty of wiggle-room within the GEFS 06Z ensembles:🤔

t850Leicestershire.png    prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png    prcpLeicestershire.png

Yep that op..certainly on the milder side of things....

So all gravy imo!

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58 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Yep that op..certainly on the milder side of things....

So all gravy imo!

Well  - looking at that  - this weekend is the only shot to get out in anything wintery and that's if you can stay on your feet.From then on as regards pressure the only way is up.

 

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image.thumb.png.25b3ff836d34ee56acdb241e5ddf5c64.pngimage.thumb.png.4ca0634099b489f59e9609838f3fd183.pngwell not to pinpoint on that but some signs.......AO/NAO forecast

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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

And, anywho, there's still plenty of wiggle-room within the GEFS 06Z ensembles:🤔

t850Leicestershire.png    prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png    prcpLeicestershire.png

That’s a real drop off in 2m temps, 4 ENS actually look like ice days!! Interesting to see, hopefully that trend keeps up and the Op follows. 

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That high pressure at the end of GFS looks like building north,and could go on to develop an easterly further down the line.

Still pointless discussing at that range ,but the trend for high pressure and dry weather is building

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21 minutes ago, Dennis said:

ICON12zimage.thumb.png.37c072ed8d95d28ff3446ab4eb6a3338.pngimage.thumb.png.6cbe52427ba725576b9e8e01a4a1aa01.pngimage.thumb.png.4c80f2d3cd35a77df8124e0082d964a1.png

Thanks 1st chart has a little interest I might suggest with a " wedge " between the two PV lobes to our north and Canada! - not sure if trending in the right direction? also I don’t recognise nor understand 2nd & 3rd charts.

Any thoughts please team?

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9 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thanks 1st chart has a little interest I might suggest with a " wedge " between the two PV lobes to our north and Canada! - not sure if trending in the right direction? also I don’t recognise nor understand 2nd & 3rd charts.

Any thoughts please team?

On charts 2/3 you see the west move of that wedge ....the pattern will change if it has the right position to bring cold air to west Europe- 

Edited by Dennis

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That low in the N Atlantic looking more slidey on this run at 186 vs 192 06z

986C9B04-2C97-4B4D-89CD-8BCAF2CF7F21.png

7F5EAEFC-18FF-47BA-9A14-7864367BF299.png

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4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfsnh-0-90.png?12gfsnh-0-192.png?12

Changes are a foot!

One thing that doesn’t change is that piece of energy Canada that will keep spewing energy towards us. It’s a messy outlook really.

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Day 10 and the heights in North Africa are much weaker, hopefully the trend of them pushing up into Europe has gone this run.

CA715823-03F6-4C44-9721-695EA5D36975.png

E7A47944-BE36-4D6F-A232-CA65ED64000C.png

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10 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

One thing that doesn’t change is that piece of energy Canada that will keep spewing energy towards us. It’s a messy outlook really.

Whilst the polar region is being moved about the mid term remains in doubt.

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Just now, Ali1977 said:

Day 10 and the heights in North Africa are much weaker, hopefully the trend of them pushing up into Europe has gone this run.

CA715823-03F6-4C44-9721-695EA5D36975.png

E7A47944-BE36-4D6F-A232-CA65ED64000C.png

Its awful mate.

Flat as a pancake and copious amounts of rainfall, no thanks ..

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Disgusting. Lows spinning over Atlantic, HP sitting over Europe. Another December down the drain, barring a Christmas miracle.

gfsnh-0-240.png?12

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2 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Disgusting. Lows spinning over Atlantic, HP sitting over Europe. Another December down the drain, barring a Christmas miracle.

gfsnh-0-240.png?12

While i agree with the sentiment it is but one GFS op- of course we do not want to see this kind of run verify.Might look totally different next run 🙂

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I'm more eagerly awaiting the GEFS ensembles than op runs at this current moment in time - got a feeling most GFS ops for the next 5 days or so are going to churn up some stinky looking charts - have a feeling that any 'change' towards the Christmas period will be picked up by the ensembles first.

image.thumb.png.b8ea485ac877ec21e3d3414c0e31ac28.png

That above isn't particularly nice to look at though!

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35 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

One thing that doesn’t change is that piece of energy Canada that will keep spewing energy towards us. It’s a messy outlook really.

Not with a squeeze/elongated rouge lobe...

Trust me...that's a start....ya need...in the hunt for cold...especially with other dynamic involvement!

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