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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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8 minutes ago, snowray said:

06z looking pretty decent, LP around Italy has replaced the dreaded African/Euro high, big relief there.

Inkedgfsnh-0-216_LI.jpg

Can the Arctic high build our way I wonder?

Momentum certainly opening doors that previously looked closed!!

 

There are ample angles for possible-much more 'favourable exactions'..

With some harmonic, sync...and luck anything remains possible with given synoptics....

 

And that pv-remains a desperate looking creature!

Edited by tight isobar

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20 minutes ago, shaky said:

We could be over looking the potential for snow this week!!think some places could receive a surprise come the end of the week!!looking really cold with a biting northwest wind!!

Yes - 06Z an upgrade as far as the weekend goes  - ppn down to 600ft asl Cumbria Sea Level N York Moors

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7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Momentum certainly opening doors that previously looked closed!!

 

There are ample angles for possible-much more 'favourable exactions'..

With some harmonic, sync...and luck anything remains possible with given synoptics....

 

And that pv-remains a desperate looking creature!

None the less, we end up with HP building up through Spain on this run. Incredible consistency being shown with this dreaded Euro High, (Unlike when we see cold scenario's going to pot at T120).

gfsnh-0-324.png

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5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

6z bringing in the Euro Slug as well.

image.thumb.png.ef96b892233065cf65e6ce971c472667.png

Thankfully as we all know, a single chosen frame at Day 13 won't verify as shown. 

There's so many changes and fluidity in the mid term run on run that anything at day 13 is barely worth speaking about at the moment. 

Not to mention that there is a week of weather upcoming that has the potential to throw up surprises with tweaks here and there, it'd be daft to solely focus on a chart at day 13 

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7 minutes ago, snowray said:

None the less, we end up with HP building up through Spain on this run. Incredible consistency being shown with this dreaded Euro High, (Unlike when we see cold scenario's going to pot at T120).

gfsnh-0-324.png

Yes..but there's some clockwork to unwind b4 we get to this...and as-again...any macro movement of cells/placement..

In 2/3 days time these synoptic...could look very alien...

So definitely some very intriguing watching to come.

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It's fair to say that the 'smart money' ought to go on the PFJ being pushed away northward, as we approach the Festive Period, IMO; signs for anything properly cold are fading all the while:🤔

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

That said, I'd much prefer very mild and bright days to a run of seemingly-endless anticyclonic gloom, the like of which we experienced, just post Xmas, last year...:unsure2:

So enjoy whatever snow you get, these coming few days?:oldgood:

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anim_gag2.gif

From 192 out to the end of the run each wave of high pressure building into Europe builds further West than the previous.

 

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's fair to say that the 'smart money' ought to go on the PFJ being pushed away northward, as we approach the Festive Period, IMO; signs for anything properly cold are fading all the while:🤔

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

That said, I'd much prefer very mild and bright days to a run of seemingly-endless anticyclonic gloom, the like of which we experienced, just post Xmas, last year...:unsure2:

So enjoy whatever snow you get, these coming few days?:oldgood:

Well the ens look like they may want a different say on that particular ed !!!

@6z London ones...

MT8_London_ens (24).png

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6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Well the ens look like they may want a different say on that particular ed !!!

@6z London ones...

MT8_London_ens (24).png

Encouraging ensembles! I recall GP saying 21st onwards could see some  amplification? Certainly not not a done deal that xmas will be mild! 

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5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Well the ens look like they may want a different say on that particular ed !!!

@6z London ones...

MT8_London_ens (24).png

image.thumb.png.17431b887d06505ec4cf2f1fb8312be6.png

Yes still looks like, similar to the 0z run, that the op was one of the somewhat milder members beyond D10 but would there be any surprise if on this occasion its correct and is a trend setter for the rest of the suit? 😛

Either way it's worth noting the mean upper average for the last 4 days of the run is actually below the 30 year average, albeit only just (didn't really expect that). The large spread/scatter of options for the tail end of the suit is normal to see

Still share the opinion with others that beyond D10 there's very very little to shout about from a deep cold perspective but nothing set in stone yet

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3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hover mouse over it, underlined means it tells you meaning

Thanks.   Might have realised if I wasn’t on mobile.  

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4 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

time_lon_EQ_hf_sst_uwnd_anom_anom_201908_201912_2019120903.thumb.png.f37ef57776e1de88611b35850ef79f5b.png

Definite signs of a change back end of week 2 into week 3.

Enhanced easterlies / weakened westerlies showing up around the Dateline. This will drop angular momentum budgets and manifest in more of a wave 2 pattern across the hemisphere.

Last few GFS ops have depicted a shift to more anticyclonic conditions for NW Europe, as have GEFS means. 

Also worth noting stratospheric winds have dropped across the Equatorial Region in last day or two. Signs of transition to East phase during January I suspect.

tlat_u30_nh.thumb.gif.8ddfca222b7f82f274b444d58d8a9b6a.gif

GWO phase 8 between Christams and New Year? UK based high pressure?

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2 minutes ago, jules216 said:

GWO phase 8 between Christams and New Year? UK based high pressure?

Or a phase 8=Scandinavian one !!!

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58 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

6z bringing in the Euro Slug as well.

image.thumb.png.ef96b892233065cf65e6ce971c472667.png

312 hours away 🤔

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3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

312 hours away 🤔

All options on the table I suppose.If that chart at T312 was showing a Beast from the East with -15 uppers there would have been pages of posts from excited posters.In the nearer time frame looks like some snow for the usual suspects with Elevation from the Peak District North come the weekend 

C.S

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Finally a few positive posts to start the working week ridges in play over the festive season.🙂

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850 hpa  GFS show a slight pick up of temperatures from the 17th to the 21st December London.

But ECMWF 2 meter temperature going downwards for London.Possible high pressure build could

be the cause.Lots of ifs and buts for Christmas run up good watching.

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Interesting mean anomalies for the GFS 06z ensembles.

D8

gensnh-21-5-192.thumb.png.a37ea91ee3f725e935d7b34663abc3cb.png

 

D10

 

gensnh-21-5-240.thumb.png.5104423a4d06c46fd4ec611bfa7f2831.png

 

D13

gensnh-21-5-324.thumb.png.7e9a4493b2e45547cec9f715f6ba6bb7.png

 

D15

 

gensnh-21-5-372.thumb.png.6c955f6590bec88d9cd3ecbbfd497b9b.png

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4 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Looks like it. Exact positioning - to east or west of UK up for grabs.

Which has huge implications on wind direction in to Europe,worst case scenario would be if high pressure gets stuck to the east of UK and whole Europe stays mild, anyway have my prozac ready 🙂

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4 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Which has huge implications on wind direction in to Europe,worst case scenario would be if high pressure gets stuck to the east of UK and whole Europe stays mild, anyway have my prozac ready 🙂

But as highlighted via operationals...etc=gfs 6z..the large scale Russian high lapses...and migrates...as we gain...a positive sign for spillage into the desired plots....then it's pot luck atm..as discussed...block/pressure format location...

Edited by tight isobar

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Today's mulimodel outlook up until the 17th of December.

There's better agreement with the models today on temperatures compared to the last 3 days. The week ahead will be around 8c to 7c midday tempetatures and most places at night are looking cold. In a weeks time the models are showing a slight drop in temperatures something indicated yesterday and again this morning.

500302948_airtemp.thumb.png.3b3d0d8d18af2ec6b72c3fe8ca09322c.png

 

As for the air pressure things are still staying on the unsettled side this week with an area of low pressure over the UK on Thursday and Friday the models still seem unsure on how deep it will get and where it's exact position will be. The trend for pressure increasing into next weekend is still there and into the start of next week.

pressure.thumb.png.a39479149eba045c0ba5877c22904e47.png

Edited by Zenarcher

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