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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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Quietly happy with the 00z suite. Relatively speaking, decent enough for now.

Small steps to dropping energy into Europe and away from building a solid EU high.

 

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3 hours ago, Big Dave said:

Sorry, what is WAA?   The Q&A page has been closed for some reason.  Thanks in advance.  

hover mouse over it, underlined means it tells you meaning

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3 hours ago, jordan smith said:

Ahh Christmas day has now appeared at the end of the Gfs run in FI so let's see what it's showing..😳

Just in time for Christmas day and the as some call it the "euro slug" (stubborn high pressure sat over mainland Europe) is in full swing! 😜 With low pressure to the west being held somewhat at bay drawing up very mild air over the country.. unsettled for the north drier for the south but this is just a snapshot don't take it literally. 🙂

2103325039_EUROPE_PRMSL_384(2).thumb.jpg.0fe64c6f25b790d4f03bb7f39a25114b.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_384.thumb.jpg.7f5f4cb3004fa540df52e63427350eb1.jpg

I wont.

It's FI.

It's a waste of time.

It will not verify.

Edited by Iceaxecrampon

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38 minutes ago, Dennis said:

GEM looks promising - High coupling possible Russ/NortPole and Azores/Greenland/Northpole

6.png

Yes, that is what we are looking for, but we need the background signals to promote a tropical wave push and from what the experts are saying, the above time frame maybe too early.

The current NH profile is of a HP cell train circulating the lower lats meaning a mobile picture as seen from the run:

anim_vpk7.gif

Any upstream trough is cut through by the strong jet. The tPV not showing any signs of coupling with a nascent strengthening sPV and the tPV remains up to D10 primed for any wave activity. That is when those wedges become conduits for high-lat blocking. The GFS keeps the Arctic wedge right out into FI;

1660881944_gfsnh-0-312(4).thumb.png.efd840f9cafc22da8d247769341d48ec.png

Many questions; when will the coupling of the PV's happen, will we return to the two UK sector waves (euro/Azores, UK cold killer) and when will the Pacific wave re-establish (will dismantle the Atlantic trough scenario)? I think from past experience waiting for an SSW is a curse on model watching as it raises expectations too much, with still much to understand in that regard.

If we are honest, it looks pretty dire for cold/snow UK wise for the week 2(+) after the bits and pieces we get this week in favoured locations. FWIW CFSv2 forecast at times Europe to be 5c above average in the coming weeks (https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1203794488176627717?s=19). Thankfully as others have said, it can flip from warm to cold quickly.

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6 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

I wont.

It's FI.

It's a waste of time.

It will not verify.

No one said it necessarily would? 

It was a casual look at what it shows nothing more. 

Edited by jordan smith

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Both GFS and ECM at ten days out looking to bring pressure rises into Europe,if and its a big if,this occurs 

positioning of the high pressure will be crucial to the second half of December regarding temperatures.

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Who invited Uncle Barty for Christmas ! 👹🥴

image.thumb.png.6e706dbed60a3945cf3f4b2cb8462eaf.png

Let's hope the Snow Queen sees him off ! 😁

image.thumb.png.e0000068db511e56ccd3fa21c7099816.png

Edited by Purga

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20 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Based on a lifetime of weather watching and 15 yrs on Netweather, this is a faintly ridiculous post. 

Of course it is.

You've taken one line of what I said and therefore removed the context of being locked into a slug Euro high.

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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Of course it is.

You've taken one line of what I said and therefore removed the context of being locked into a slug Euro high.

Yes but you've said that we would need the zonal winds to drop. Which is it? The zonal or the blocked Euro high? The two aren't mutually compatible with halting cold over the UK until February March

It's December 9th. 

FI looks tasty on some ensembles. That's the -10C over London.

881664489_Screenshot2019-12-09at07_12_56.thumb.png.da1b0af37363be0de2435595de89cf27.png

 

Meantime a lively week of weather with plenty of sleet and snow around.

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ICON 6z image.thumb.png.a621716afff0ab6c1d91586de494faed.pngsee the south track of the Low's - this week increasing.....

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image.thumb.png.8ad737760ff8184726ed98ca61f49d87.png

GEFS ensembles overnight show the cooling trend this week but beyond D8 things do warm up quite notably for a time. But is there then another cooling trend trying to evolve towards the end of the ensembles? 

Not too many members flirt with the -5 uppers but I still think going into the Christmas period it's not a done deal yet

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16 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Yes but you've said that we would need the zonal winds to drop. Which is it? The zonal or the blocked Euro high? The two aren't mutually compatible with halting cold over the UK until February March

It's December 9th. 

FI looks tasty on some ensembles. That's the -10C over London.

881664489_Screenshot2019-12-09at07_12_56.thumb.png.da1b0af37363be0de2435595de89cf27.png

 

Meantime a lively week of weather with plenty of sleet and snow around.

One only with two that show +10 or so, being a bit choosy are you not?

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image.thumb.png.10482140b108961a896f8837dffa6787.pngthe forecast of the NAO seen on the chart.....there could be a turn back to -NAO ?

Edited by Dennis

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1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

Quietly happy with the 00z suite. Relatively speaking, decent enough for now.

Small steps to dropping energy into Europe and away from building a solid EU high.

 

Me too S4L . Although last week's predicted blizzard of the century would have been a nice distraction. I am always very dubious if any cold and snow being predicted before Xmas. Unless absolutely nailed on across the models like 2010. Post Xmas is a different story.Although cross model agreement is (at some point) still a necessity even then.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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Now this is a better profile of alignment...

And the geopotential..

Later in December also offering up some promise..

The Russian noise needs eyeing for possible Scandinavian surge and placement!

gfsnh-0-96.png6z gfs

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_45.png00z 500 geo..

@valid 20-December

Edited by tight isobar

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25 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Please remember the NAO is not a predictor, it simply tells how the surface pressure in between north of 60 north and around 40 north is being predicted by the models.

Excellent - thanks John. I always wondered which way round it was. Good to know 🙂

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GFS 06Z

Friday looking very "interesting"

818283141_h500slp(1).thumb.png.0b27fbb15551e7418cee3b9c6a9710ef.png

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.adb111618fbb8920b789e729db4c8183.png

ukgust.thumb.png.cb9ab5800e9d836f8d7af8ac06e6d868.png

Cabin up - Pennine Blizzards

T+90 is as far as i'm going

#sensible

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9 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

GFS 06Z

Friday looking very "interesting"

818283141_h500slp(1).thumb.png.0b27fbb15551e7418cee3b9c6a9710ef.png

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.adb111618fbb8920b789e729db4c8183.png

ukgust.thumb.png.cb9ab5800e9d836f8d7af8ac06e6d868.png

Cabin up - Pennine Blizzards

T+90 is as far as i'm going

#sensible

image.thumb.png.260e2d80306a883e8685902fa2418301.png

Snow level c. 1000ft definitely puts transpennine routes at risk. 

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We could be over looking the potential for snow this week!!think some places could receive a surprise come the end of the week!!looking really cold with a biting northwest wind!!

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2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

I think this is where we're heading unfortunately as the PV winds up and pulls the jet stream back North with Euro heights resulting. 

We then need to wait for zonal winds to drop again in February/March for a proper cold spell to develop. 

Unless a SSW occurs beforehand. 

I have absolutely no words for this.....

the models flip from a mild outlook to a cold outlook and visa versa all the time, who knows in a few days we could be looking at a coming winter wonderland! I’m not saying we will by any means but you just never no.

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06z looking pretty decent, LP around Italy has replaced the dreaded African/Euro high, big relief there.

Inkedgfsnh-0-216_LI.jpg

Can the Arctic high build our way I wonder?

Edited by snowray

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