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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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12z 210

At this stage I think everyone would take this...
Very similar to ECM 00z

7B7B2EBC-B489-4C33-A48B-2CAD0598CB47.thumb.png.dc7a32e64a9ac3501cb95cd52f41eb18.png

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dream time image.thumb.png.c568b85a9cbfc168051acd4928253d5f.pngimage.thumb.png.8815d0c0eb3d6d54f3957682b7d7555b.png

Edited by Dennis
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UKMO 120 showing low pressure just to the west of central U.K. if correct the tracking could be crucial in

bringing polar maritime air to all UK ,although not shown on the 144 still up for change after 120hrs.

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This would go on to give an extremely cold Xmas day, probably ice day for most!! Very festive.

6F789ED4-C4AA-47B8-A489-40A32FDD1BB2.png

8FDB53F7-5548-4F16-B1BA-35368C308B8B.png
 

Maybe this would need the HP a few hundred miles North on closer inspection 

95C3FFE3-C9C6-4197-851A-A40F509051BB.png

Edited by Ali1977
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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This would go on to give an extremely cold Xmas day, probably ice day for most!! Very festive.

6F789ED4-C4AA-47B8-A489-40A32FDD1BB2.png

8FDB53F7-5548-4F16-B1BA-35368C308B8B.png
 

Maybe this would need the HP a few hundred miles North on closer inspection 

95C3FFE3-C9C6-4197-851A-A40F509051BB.png

You forgot the JFF bit Ali ......

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These latest GFS outputs remind me of last December - forever tempting us (well, cold lovers anyway...) with cold charts just a little further out in FI. And we all know what happened last year don't we.

 

image.thumb.png.c0e3dcf2582a7f932c0d6b541c6dd82b.png

Will this verify?  Nah

 

image.thumb.png.e8d4d817f37d171d87a9aa51b46601d5.png

OK, but surely this has some chance?  Lol no.

 

Maybe 2020-21 will deliver some festive cold.

Edited by Mr TOAD
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31 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Steve

 

168 for 12z?  I think that would show further improvement....as I think UKMO has been very steadily bringing a cold scenario in

 

BFTP

If it is, then it is pretty much on its own. The GEFS suggest a NW/W'ly airstream bringing cooler temps. Variation on this theme amongst them, from a more sustained colder flow to just a cold pool just below zero (T850's). The mean at:

T168: 955713069_gens-21-0-168(1).thumb.png.fcc8202532046094a9af3a8c73b8ed6f.png At T216: gens-21-0-216.thumb.png.dfe57e1dbf3b5024b00ee6acf55a65c9.png

This has been modelled by the GEFS for a while now. The GEM is now on board for this flow. Some GEFS have more amplified mini-ridges so maybe in the zonal flow a low cell mixing in a more northerly flow. not sure how and why you think the UKMO is going off on a tangent with a colder outlook?

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There's a lot of wintry potential in the GEFS 12z, especially around the mid Dec period when snow could fall just about anywhere!!???⛄

snow_210_ps_slp.thumb.png.07c5a7525c02ffb8215a91f76bb1cac6.png2m_maxtemp_216_ps_slp.thumb.png.82f00ab5ebbbfe200189d41bd721c192.png850tempuk_216_ps_slp.thumb.png.da56880059dea1fb07044946b95e5705.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Alas though, Jon...the snowy runs are submerged under a smorgasbord of grot...?

t850Leicestershire.png    prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png    prcpLeicestershire.png

What's more -- the GFS operationals are, as per usual, flapping around like sheets in the wind?:help:

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That slither of HP to our north looking more pronounced on the ECM at T144, might be an ok run this to save the day?:oldgood:

ECH1-144.png

ECH0-144.png

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A vast improvement. Yesterdays 168 compared to today's 144.

Screenshot_20191207-183143.png

Screenshot_20191207-183202.png

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The NH defo getting messed up here.

55403B95-2963-4CBC-B2B9-CEEB061E3E20.png

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Comparing the day 6 and 9 around greeny shows some potential 

74A64FEC-3FAD-47EB-97D9-F28884C92369.thumb.png.f984cfc98f5d268beb64180db6d64ff5.png  77D53D30-0C5E-402D-9BE4-37241BB1E3E7.thumb.png.c6e9d8aa92a0fde46b37e63e7a6e7958.png

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19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The NH defo getting messed up here.

55403B95-2963-4CBC-B2B9-CEEB061E3E20.png

Ideed.possibly the only positive I can take  so far from the runs today is the weakening of the pv. hopefully them gaps may induce some heighths along thw way 

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12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Comparing the day 6 and 9 around greeny shows some potential 

74A64FEC-3FAD-47EB-97D9-F28884C92369.thumb.png.f984cfc98f5d268beb64180db6d64ff5.png  77D53D30-0C5E-402D-9BE4-37241BB1E3E7.thumb.png.c6e9d8aa92a0fde46b37e63e7a6e7958.png

Yes, the Arctic wedge doing some warming out before D10 so the tPV vortex's become less potent. However the Arctic wedge dissolves after T240 and the GFS has the tPV regrouping. The ECM hints at that demise (A-wedge) in its run, unfortunately.

We will therefore have to await another Pacific ridge to restart that potential. Not sure that we have those background signals to get a more amplified NH before late December.

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After Sundays deep depression, the possibility of another deep low heading to the UK is very high, looking forward too see if the models do indeed show one. 

Shame any polar WNWlies that the models are showing are looking quite weak upper air temperature wise as that kink in the isobars could easily develop into a prolonged spell check of PPN which could of fallen as snow somewhere but not too be, at least at this stage. 

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15 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

After Sundays deep depression, the possibility of another deep low heading to the UK is very high, looking forward too see if the models do indeed show one. 

Shame any polar WNWlies that the models are showing are looking quite weak upper air temperature wise as that kink in the isobars could easily develop into a prolonged spell check of PPN which could of fallen as snow somewhere but not too be, at least at this stage. 

Those PM shots will pack more if punch in January  I can assure you

 

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Def some wintry potential there for more areas of the country- a shame it's in FI. Also would that later timeframe not lead to an Easterly over Christmas/Boxing day??❄☃️

gfs-0-348.png

gfs-0-384.png

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Will the met office name Tuesday/Wednesday's low? They've seemed very reluctant to name storms of late despite issuing amber warnings.

Let's see what they do next week if this doesn't weaken/move north

U72-21UK.thumb.gif.af8ca786a09697fbb92b84137c358055.gifU96-21UK.thumb.gif.cd8c5b30ed060092af230e1824085ed4.gif

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image.thumb.png.4ceaa060ecd00524540203c0c83aec5d.pngimage.thumb.png.4380a23806f7d548b03fbf16d9976546.pngimage.thumb.png.ef16d3a24145a56c4bba7fe8c65b2d0a.pngthe euro4 model sees possible snow showers sunday later on the day

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Here are the results of those GEFS ensemble scenarios with height rises to the NE that were happening up until the 12z today.

image.thumb.png.f0e81768aeffe1a895f5a647e1e3aa62.png

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