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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

^^ Indeed. I'm sure the Daily Excreta's headline-writers are already busy...?:oldgrin:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Yes and they have been at it already with their OTT New Ice age headlines.:olddoh:

 

Here is how December 1981 developed and the rest is history, you don't always need mega low upper temps in December for some extreme weather to turn up. Could we possibly see something similar later this month, there is the potential there I think, anyway I keep an open mind.

archivesnh-1981-12-5-0-0.png

archivesnh-1981-12-7-0-0.png

archivesnh-1981-12-11-0-0.png

archives-1981-12-11-0-1.png

archivesnh-1981-12-16-0-0.png

archives-1981-12-16-0-1.png

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2 hours ago, jordan smith said:

GFS ensembles below.. 👇

Upper air temperatures shown to be up and down indicative of a zonal pattern with low pressure coming in winds blow southwest for a time then west northwest behind. Big and frequent rainfall spikes continue for much of the period and for areas further north snow at times perhaps but mostly on higher ground. 

GFS.. 

ens_image.thumb.png.927f6d6755a370c9f2e13fbfd94b1e9e.png

 

Anyone else spot the date / time stamp on the top right 🤔

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P14, imagine if this came to fruition on the 23rd of Dec, forum meltdown!! Lovely chart with the snowmaking North Sea feed about to kick in. 

AC3098BD-62E9-4482-A403-5268C1120977.png

D95F3502-8178-4C96-B24B-755453897B7E.png

Edited by Ali1977

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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

P14, imagine if this came to fruition on the 23rd of Dec, forum meltdown!! Lovely chart with the snowmaking North Sea feed about to kick in. 

AC3098BD-62E9-4482-A403-5268C1120977.png

D95F3502-8178-4C96-B24B-755453897B7E.png

Point is Ali, just selecting an isolated ens member at day 15 is pretty well equivalent to just drawing your dream chart ....

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Point is Ali, just selecting an isolated ens member at day 15 is pretty well equivalent to just drawing your dream chart ....

Unless of course that isolated ens member at day 15 is an as yet unrecognised trend setter.  Not saying it will happen but every severe cold or snowy spell starts off in FI as an unrecognised trend setter at some point.😀❄️😉

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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55 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes and they have been at it already with their OTT New Ice age headlines.:olddoh:

 

Here is how December 1981 developed and the rest is history, you don't always need mega low upper temps in December for some extreme weather to turn up. Could we possibly see something similar later this month, there is the potential there I think, anyway I keep an open mind.

archivesnh-1981-12-5-0-0.png

archivesnh-1981-12-7-0-0.png

archivesnh-1981-12-11-0-0.png

archives-1981-12-11-0-1.png

archivesnh-1981-12-16-0-0.png

archives-1981-12-16-0-1.png

Yep Dec 81 delivered big time here with about a foot of level snow (got some old photos lying around somewhere which showed how deep the snow cover was) & I'm at sea level just a few miles from the Bristol channel coast, the upper air temps were only around - 3/-4

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Point is Ali, just selecting an isolated ens member at day 15 is pretty well equivalent to just drawing your dream chart ....

I know, I know, just throwing some nice charts about JFF!!

To be honest, a few days ago the ENS weren’t  showing much of interest even in deep FI , at-least the NH is looking slightly more bashed up on the last few runs. 

Edited by Ali1977

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I still say things are shaping up better this winter compared to last with at least some cold air in the mix and also more chance of wintry precipitation / snow, the early part of last winter, indeed most of last winter was mild benign dross..at least the models are showing a model roller coaster ride of action packed weather this time around according to the latest Ecm ens mean / Gefs for the foreseeable future.👍

Edited by JON SNOW

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20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Point is Ali, just selecting an isolated ens member at day 15 is pretty well equivalent to just drawing your dream chart ....

There are a few good ones though.

image.thumb.png.26a07564f201f5d319c17003104c4e16.png

And the op isn't bad either - Nowhere near enough to start getting interested yet but all cold spells start in this fashion, it is a myth that Easterlies just pop up inside 192-240 without any signposting by the ensembles, background signals not all that favourable (although catacol's post the other day not as doom and gloom as i thought) so will dismiss it as another GFS/GEFS garden path for now but will still check future runs.

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3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

You know things are bad when you have to pluck one ensemble member out at 15 days away for a good chart!

I know! Just trying to cheer up the troops, anyway here are 2 more from the 06z suite

P8

image.thumb.png.c2977696e760426c901d5230dcbce2f5.pngimage.thumb.png.583b6350def84abce84c1ecdf08960ff.png

P14

image.thumb.png.3ba7c97e6abeb87101575b8f985d44fc.pngimage.thumb.png.2407b59ebca37a9b831018e40979062c.png

White Christmas anyone? 😃

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Today's multimodel graphs the trend for temperature still remains around 7c to 9c for midday during the week up until 15th of December.

513823648_airtemp.thumb.png.ef5590c285e8cc18aff9142bdf46f4f2.png

The air pressure around 1000 to 1010mb between Sunday and Monday then dropping to 990mb on Thursday and Friday with some signs of it rising slightly towards next weekend.

pressure.thumb.png.4518deffbceee4fc53af0647090d14ae.png

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ECMWF 2 meter temperature for London tending downwards,still a good chance of lows tracking further south

and dragging polar air down across all of uk by Friday.

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could   the gfs be saying something  and have  we  got  to rush  to the bookiies!!

gfs-2-384.png

Edited by tinybill

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9 minutes ago, tinybill said:

could   the gfs be saying something  and have  we  got  to rush  to the bookiies!!

gfs-2-384.png

It could be, tinybill...But I suspect it's more inline with P. T. Barnum, in saying, there's a sucker born every minute?:oldgrin:

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3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I posted probably about 2 weeks ago, a note to everyone to best just stick to looking at the reliable 144 hrs tops (max) when viewing the charts, and expect changes from run to run at timescales beyond this period. In times of more uncertainty, the reliable becomes shorter sometimes even just 72 hrs.

This week has once again proven that this advice should be taken heed of. We've seen change after change in the post 144 hr output and certainly the 240 hr range..

It will be a long winter for those studying run to run at 240 hr time range, becoming frustrated when each run shows something different.

Good to look at the longer term output for general signs of trends, but that't all really. Sudden short term developments especially under 'fluid, mobile flows' are highly likely to scupper even the edges of the reliable 120 hr timeframe.

Back to the here and now, a typical December pattern, mobile flow, alternating polar maritime/tropical maritime/returning polar maritime airflow. PV building strongly to the NW, (this is the normal base state), steep temp gradient setting up over N Atlantic fuelling the jet, leading to secondary low developments underneath the longwave trough - text book geography pattern.

UKMO and FAX charts showing something quite wintry for northern parts by Wednesday, wintry showers returning to high ground.

Wind and rain will be the headline features in the days ahead.

Hoping things might calm down in time for christmas.

This is so true, if every run only went out to T+144 there would be a lot more sanity in forums like these

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image.thumb.png.750dc73ad9761b2eb20d3c1bcec6f499.pngimage.thumb.png.d0fffb8b964f7b4f75f610828efaac96.pnga try is there - see the pressure rise west of the canadian coldpool and see on the NorthPole 

Edited by Dennis

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30 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

This is so true, if every run only went out to T+144 there would be a lot more sanity in forums like these

Who needs sanity ???

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43 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

This is so true, if every run only went out to T+144 there would be a lot more sanity in forums like these

There would be even more sanity if you couldn't view runs at all on the internet and the only run you could see past a couple of days was the UKMO out to D5 on telly on a Sunday lunchtime but would that actually be a good thing though??

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its interesting we should have a poll what would you rather have

- models out to day 6 with 100% accuracy & no deviation > So with this scenario you there would be no phantom cold spells just the reality of whats going to be

 

- Or the current way out to day 16 with the twists & turns of each day > The ups & downs > trying to second guess the models.

 

Id rather have scenario 2 everytime !

 

ICON 12z pretty chilly all the way out to 170 from 130

Not really a black or white answer for me - it also depends if you are going to actually get cold spells and snow - if i thought the next 10 winters were going to be like last year i would pack it up altogether - part of me would have loved in the 80's to full well know x-day we were going to get a day off school with a right dumping but part of me would have loved viewing the runs day to day and not getting too ahead of myself like gloating to my parents or anything like that.

EDIT : Yes the twists and turns and thrill of the chase are great on one condition - that at least some of the time you end up with a dumping, just a decent fall of snow in a winter then occasionally - every 5 or 10 years a really big one - that would be ok even if there  were 2 or 3 Easterlies busting inside 96 every year.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its interesting we should have a poll what would you rather have

- models out to day 6 with 100% accuracy & no deviation > So with this scenario you there would be no phantom cold spells just the reality of whats going to be

 

- Or the current way out to day 16 with the twists & turns of each day > The ups & downs > trying to second guess the models.

 

Id rather have scenario 2 everytime !

 

ICON 12z pretty chilly all the way out to 170 from 130

Whilst the twists and turns of the current way normally result in more disappointments that it does joy, it's the thrill of the chase that I enjoy and I'm sure plenty of others feel the same.

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Yep, I'm in the fruitless search gang.  I get almost as much pleasure in first identifying a potential cold snap and seeing how it evolves into the reliable as seeing the white stuff falling from the sky!  I am well aware that 95% of the time it never transpires as hoped, however that glorious 5% (well, probably more like 1%) is what keeps me coming back year on year. 

Anyway, not to upset the mods, onto the 12z's and there's a fair bit of difference between the UKMO and GFS at just 120hrs (UK first):

image.thumb.png.e8caa1d5a478fcdf21d66bb2c9177eed.pngimage.thumb.png.df945ae8fee6a67af824b758bbeefdc7.png  

I know which one I prefer!

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Any possible Ukmo wtf moment is all in the wrong direction!!!

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Any possible Ukmo wtf moment is all in the wrong direction!!!

I checked this morning the 168 was pretty strong zonal

120-144 tonight cold but the zonal train is coming through- chilly but snow reserved for the high Hills in the North.

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