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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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Maybe I'm clutching at straws a bit too this morning looking at the ICON 06z at T120. Trough digging a bit further south, more of a slither to our NW, could be a bit of potential there for an incoming slider. The colder air further south too.

iconnh-0-120.png

iconnh-1-120.png

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Blimey peeps! Only one page of posts, since I went to bed, last night?? Can things really be that bad?:shok:

Yes.. & Some of those post were from people to pished to read the charts 🤣

were certainly a long way from early in the week when people we’re calling the long range forecasts a bust and calling a cold and snowy start to winter ! But things can flip back again very quickly i suppose   

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11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Blimey peeps! Only one page of posts, since I went to bed, last night?? Can things really be that bad?:shok:

 

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Yes.. & Some of those post were from people to pished to read the charts 🤣

were certainly a long way from early in the week when people we’re calling the long range forecasts a bust and calling a cold and snowy start to winter ! But things can flip back again very quickly i suppose   

It takes a while to readjust to the usual Winter roller coaster ride I guess, all them nice charts from November and early December having ended up in the bin is a big letdown of course, and at 7th of December we have another 3 or 4 months of this to go through.

Never fear, I expect that the next carrot to chase will pop up soon enough. 

download.jpg

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19 minutes ago, snowray said:

Maybe I'm clutching at straws a bit too this morning looking at the ICON 06z at T120. Trough digging a bit further south, more of a slither to our NW, could be a bit of potential there for an incoming slider. The colder air further south too.

iconnh-0-120.png

iconnh-1-120.png

Yes this was noted earlier.

The UKMO 144 continued yesterdays DEVELOPING potential of polar air spreading south > the 120 chart shows a ridge just nudging up to Iceland to amplify the flow over the UK which then leads to that cold air day 6.

GFS 06z is now on the same page at 114 although it hasn't amplified the ridge as much > however continue that trending & it will catch up.

6F842897-2FE0-4D2A-8B60-7B58744D3F2F.thumb.jpeg.0c354ca1521440e2a9c503e45fb2fd28.jpeg

A pretty wintry outlook for the NW / Scotland & NI next week > judging by whats on offer they could extract the most out of a pattern that isnt great overall sub 8 days....

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My take on the latest models is a very unsettled outlook with some explosive cyclogenesis bringing stormy conditions at times, very wet and windy spells and with air predominantly of polar origins there would be snow at times across northern hills & mountains and occasionally to lower levels, mainly for the north and also some quieter interludes bringing overnight frosts and fog but essentially it's a disturbed period ahead of us.

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Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear! It looks like election-day snow has been replaced with windy, mildish grot...But, for the many, not for the few!:oldgrin:

h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

And, with talk of milder sw'erlies taking over with time, it reminds be a bit of December 1974...Now, there's a scary thought!:shok:

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We can see the new-ECM, the updated (upgraded is an oxymoron) GFS and how it can, and will lead us to never-never land in FI if we take it seriously beyond D8:

D10 from 5-days past:1858294112_gfseu-0-252(3).thumb.png.58588b8cbee57af17ba9f0c3e0e9b03f.pngCurrent:gfseu-0-132.thumb.png.bad57a963120de359af2179476cfe5de.png

The stark reality of five days of model watching, and usually a D10 chart would have some reasonable chance of being close to verification! An abject failure of the new improved GFS sponsored by "The ECM D10 chart"!

With each run we move towards a flatter upstream profile, so upcoming a classic zonal flow as we head into mid-December. Then maybe an Atlantic trough/euro high block for post mid-December? Clearly the non-demise of the Russian high has meant that Nov and Dec have been scuppered for real cold/wintry conditions for the UK, and we will have failed to benefit, yet again, from a tPV that keeps sending bitter cold to mid-lats. Though no sign of that tPV reengaging warp-drive just yet, so a ray of hope.

Getting a blocked HL-NH profile looks unlikely in the next two weeks so no front-loaded UK winter wonderland for the UK unfortunately. 

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Still uncertainty regarding how far south low pressure digs in with polar air.Friday looks the day where the south

joins the north in polar air ukmo chart shows on 144.

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10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear! It looks like election-day snow has been replaced with windy, mildish grot...But, for the many, not for the few!:oldgrin:

h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

And, with talk of milder sw'erlies taking over with time, it reminds be a bit of December 1974...Now, there's a scary thought!:shok:

OMG please don't go there, that's scary.🙀 And there was me thinking in terms of a December 1996 or even a 1981 a few days back.🥴

 

 

 

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Slowly the potential of the Ukmo day 6 chart dribbles out ....... been burned too many times by day 6 charts which are isolated .... but 4pm this afternoon could see a semi wtf moment if the run repeats and that fella slides se ....

UK D6 charts in Winter are for me a bit like ECM D10 charts and really not worth much brain cell analysis. Only worth a view when the usual last vestige of hope casting, the ICON, is not delivering...

...even then, maybe not!

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9 minutes ago, snowray said:

OMG please don't go there, that's scary.🙀 And there was me thinking in terms of a December 1996 or even a 1981 a few days back.🥴

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hmm, perhaps I should have gone with my initial instinct and entered a 6C plus CET for the December comp.  However, at least we’re unlikely to see another horrifying December 2015 at this stage!

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17 minutes ago, IDO said:

UK D6 charts in Winter are for me a bit like ECM D10 charts and really not worth much brain cell analysis. Only worth a view when the usual last vestige of hope casting, the ICON, is not delivering...

...even then, maybe not!

The same UK model that just wiped out every other model that pointed to cold.

After all these years dismissing the UKMO is in my books total stupidity > Also how can you compare a day 6 to a day 10. 

Great logic that

We have had quite a few cold / snowy spells where the UKMO has been on board but not the GFS / ECM but never a cold spell with UKMO not on board with GFS / ECM pointing to cold

Edited by Steve Murr

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Nothing particularly inspiring up to day 10 on GFS, unless it’s wet and windy you like. Trouble is, secondary lows keep forming out west due to deep cold coming out of Canada causing a steep temp gradient over NW Atlantic, these lows forming to SW of parent low north of Scotland holding back the coldest PM air, so zonal flow not really cold enough to bring any snow away from high ground in the north.

Just going to have to wait for the strengthening trop PV to weaken or at least dig further southeast into Europe; no signs atm of any real shake up of the zonal pattern for now.

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36 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes this was noted earlier.

The UKMO 144 continued yesterdays DEVELOPING potential of polar air spreading south > the 120 chart shows a ridge just nudging up to Iceland to amplify the flow over the UK which then leads to that cold air day 6.

GFS 06z is now on the same page at 114 although it hasn't amplified the ridge as much > however continue that trending & it will catch up.

6F842897-2FE0-4D2A-8B60-7B58744D3F2F.thumb.jpeg.0c354ca1521440e2a9c503e45fb2fd28.jpeg

A pretty wintry outlook for the NW / Scotland & NI next week > judging by whats on offer they could extract the most out of a pattern that isnt great overall sub 8 days....

Why does the most purple of purple bloody vortex cling to Greenland like a limpet like nowhere else in the nh?.

Genuine question!.

I believe there is a 50000k low pressure magnet under that place,grrrrrrrrrrrrr

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Yes - nothing inspiring from the 12Z 18Z 00Z 06Z - in fact it's all a bit ZZZzzz -  unless you can get into the clouds and drive to some altitude.

We need something to change and quickly after the late November early December potential.

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12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The same UK model that just wiped out every other model that pointed to cold.

After all these years dismissing the UKMO is in my books total stupidity > Also how can you compare a day 6 to a day 10. 

Great logic that

We have had quite a few cold / snowy spells where the UKMO has been on board but not the GFS / ECM but never a cold spell with UKMO not on board with GFS / ECM pointing to cold

Here is yesterday's D6 UKMO and today's D5 just to show what I mean:

UN144-7.thumb.gif.ca913f0084cc3b9a150fe9478b0ad9bf.gifUN120-7.thumb.gif.c49200f541958598e55bf8ec783bbf8b.gif

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45 minutes ago, IDO said:

We can see the new-ECM, the updated (upgraded is an oxymoron) GFS and how it can, and will lead us to never-never land in FI if we take it seriously beyond D8:

D10 from 5-days past:1858294112_gfseu-0-252(3).thumb.png.58588b8cbee57af17ba9f0c3e0e9b03f.pngCurrent:gfseu-0-132.thumb.png.bad57a963120de359af2179476cfe5de.png

The stark reality of five days of model watching, and usually a D10 chart would have some reasonable chance of being close to verification! An abject failure of the new improved GFS sponsored by "The ECM D10 chart"!

With each run we move towards a flatter upstream profile, so upcoming a classic zonal flow as we head into mid-December. Then maybe an Atlantic trough/euro high block for post mid-December? Clearly the non-demise of the Russian high has meant that Nov and Dec have been scuppered for real cold/wintry conditions for the UK, and we will have failed to benefit, yet again, from a tPV that keeps sending bitter cold to mid-lats. Though no sign of that tPV reengaging warp-drive just yet, so a ray of hope.

Getting a blocked HL-NH profile looks unlikely in the next two weeks so no front-loaded UK winter wonderland for the UK unfortunately. 

That really is quite drastic change to what was shown. But it also shows us how things can flip in short term. So yh long range forecasts say it will be a relatively mild Winter and potentially stormy. But if the models cant agree in the mid range timeframe how on earth can they predict many weeks ahead or months. I take anything past 4 days with a pinch of salt personally.

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Well maybe a bit of light there at the end of the tunnel in the far reaches of la la land and just in time for Christmas.:santa-emoji:

gfsnh-0-384.png

gfsnh-1-384.png

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Trying to remain optimistic but not easy. I will say though that I have see much worse offerings in December's past. Many Decembers have been bartlet dominated bringing the never ending south westerly train. This December is not one of those. 

Screenshot_20191207-111344.png

Screenshot_20191207-111409.png

Screenshot_20191207-111535.png

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I posted probably about 2 weeks ago, a note to everyone to best just stick to looking at the reliable 144 hrs tops (max) when viewing the charts, and expect changes from run to run at timescales beyond this period. In times of more uncertainty, the reliable becomes shorter sometimes even just 72 hrs.

This week has once again proven that this advice should be taken heed of. We've seen change after change in the post 144 hr output and certainly the 240 hr range..

It will be a long winter for those studying run to run at 240 hr time range, becoming frustrated when each run shows something different.

Good to look at the longer term output for general signs of trends, but that't all really. Sudden short term developments especially under 'fluid, mobile flows' are highly likely to scupper even the edges of the reliable 120 hr timeframe.

Back to the here and now, a typical December pattern, mobile flow, alternating polar maritime/tropical maritime/returning polar maritime airflow. PV building strongly to the NW, (this is the normal base state), steep temp gradient setting up over N Atlantic fuelling the jet, leading to secondary low developments underneath the longwave trough - text book geography pattern.

UKMO and FAX charts showing something quite wintry for northern parts by Wednesday, wintry showers returning to high ground.

Wind and rain will be the headline features in the days ahead.

Hoping things might calm down in time for christmas.

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2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I posted probably about 2 weeks ago, a note to everyone to best just stick to looking at the reliable 144 hrs tops (max) when viewing the charts, and expect changes from run to run at timescales beyond this period. In times of more uncertainty, the reliable becomes shorter sometimes even just 72 hrs.

 

The EC ensemble for de Bilt  is remarkably consistent for the next 11 days, unfortunately is shows nothing much of interest for coldiesspacer.pngspacer.png 

 

WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL

Bekijk de 15 daagse trend Europees weermodel voor regio Midden. Weergave van de ECMWF-EXPERT pluim met de lange termijn verwachting van Weerplaza.

 

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The point I made about the model flips the other day rings true! Absolutely no point in getting hung up over current output, the UKMO was dropping any idea of anything remotely wintry just the other day! Now it seems to be showing a more wintry flavour! I'm still liking the ECM mean, we keep rather cold, and notice how less the scatter becomes! Like my great grandaddy used to say.... Expect the unexpected and you won't be disappointed!! 😉

graphe_ens3.png

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