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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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o  what  the heck its friday  night  been out for a couple  of  pints !!!  gfs in fantasy world deep i n  fantasy got this lot heading our way   just waitimg  for  the  pub run!!

gfs-2-384.png

Edited by tinybill

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8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I think he mean't filtered.

Thanks.

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3 hours ago, fromey said:

 his not what you want to see!!

It’s only a forecast but if this came anywhere near, I don’t like our chances of any cold weather 

4404D426-A865-4A1E-9C84-F510649A0C6E.jpeg

 if this was to come to fruition then it would be like majority of the long-range forecast and we can possibly write at least one third of winter off

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Good evening. I know that this is in the wrong thread. But I'm using a smartphone to view this site as I'm working. 

And I keep getting a I accept message every page I look at on this site.

Does anyone know how to disable it from a smartphone. 

Mods please can you help in anyway

And move this message accordingly 

I didn't know which thread to use 

With this restriction popping up 

Thank you for your help and advice 

Steve ... sorepaw 

Screenshot_20191206-213439_Samsung Internet.jpg

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14 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Good evening. I know that this is in the wrong thread. But I'm using a smartphone to view this site as I'm working. 

And I keep getting a I accept message every page I look at on this site.

Does anyone know how to disable it from a smartphone. 

Mods please can you help in anyway

And move this message accordingly 

I didn't know which thread to use 

With this restriction popping up 

Thank you for your help and advice 

Steve ... sorepaw 

Screenshot_20191206-213439_Samsung Internet.jpg

That appears when you clear the system cache or cookie data. Hope that helps. If you don't clear the cookies and cache data for this site it shouldn't come up again and mods feel free to move my response into the appropriate thread if need be. 🙂

Edited by jordan smith

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes @Norrance December 2017 around the 14th (can’t be sure of the exact date) we got a good covering of snow down here (Hertfordshire) and I’m pretty sure that was from N Westerlys or a temporary Northerly. So they can deliver in this set up if it sets up just right . Then there was a repeat on Boxing Day . 
 

Back to here and now and the ECM not looking to bad , seasonal at least after the milder blip . 

98519499-6983-4FED-BC50-C583B622B408.jpeg

E27E4320-9919-497B-BE0B-102671CE4106.png it was 2017 we had a decent snowfall here in Birmingham 10th 11th and I think 12th

 

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1 hour ago, Catacol said:

I would still expect to see a greater chance of blocking returning in the final third and I notice signs of this in the long range clusters tonight.

In

UP UP she goes!

image.thumb.png.bccf0d8b12aca1b140ad7151675add5b.png

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

UP UP she goes!

image.thumb.png.bccf0d8b12aca1b140ad7151675add5b.png

Shouldn't really comment on such long range output, but an interesting synoptical development, could result in a battleground scenario set up just ahead of christmas with energy perhaps splitting and the trough undercutting - all conjecture..

If above verifies it would also be the 9th year on the trot to feature a predominantly mild/very mild atlantic driven run in to christmas.. but then a possible change come christmas itself as has happened on quite a few occasions after such mild run ins, 2008, 2014 and 2017 good examples.

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7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Shouldn't really comment on such long range output, but an interesting synoptical development, could result in a battleground scenario set up just ahead of christmas with energy perhaps splitting and the trough undercutting - all conjecture..

If above verifies it would also be the 9th year on the trot to feature a predominantly mild/very mild atlantic driven run in to christmas.. but then a possible change come christmas itself as has happened on quite a few occasions after such mild run ins, 2008, 2014 and 2017 good examples.

My main goal is to get some pressure on that PV with some wave 2, to give us hope for the second half of winter, if we can achieve good things in the process of doing so then great.

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Signs of that Scandy HP building on the Op in deep FI.

8B0B020B-B30D-43BE-9446-81D0F1F226DB.png
 

The control goes on to build heights into Central Euro 

528FD1B1-68BC-44F6-BAF5-7796AFEF0752.png

Edited by Ali1977

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A pretty severe 6pm run yesterday from the Arpege showed gales widely for many western and southwestern parts that's likely and most models show this but another zone of interest was a zone of 75-85mph heading into Wales and through the Midlands then close to the London region with gusts of 70-80mph that would certainly be very disruptive not to be taken too literally ofcourse. 

Wind gusts from that yesterday evening's chart.. 

EUROPE_GUST_54.thumb.jpg.f892d179544128ca758f42eb3babcf88.jpg

EUROPE_GUST_57.thumb.jpg.9fca4cf6b649de39fb730cdd79d958dd.jpg

EUROPE_GUST_58.thumb.jpg.0f02709d1d2df8d6b0fed7a6df212c13.jpg

Detailed numbers in mph below..

18_58_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.ef694e52da8bf4f410a13c037c28aed6.png

18_59_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.d156871af6563aeb909a161c5adc3658.png

Note there is a small disturbance "kink" in the isobars this is what those very high gusts for more inland regions are in association with ofcourse the behaviour of these little lows within the flow are important as to how things pan out during tomorrow night. 

Worth bearing in mind Arpege does tend to over do wind gusts but nevertheless knock 10mph off those values and some disruptive weather would still be likely for many. 

Anyway in its midnight update a lessening of peak gusts especially for those central regions but still 55-65mph progged.

18_60_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.0f689e8a1e0535895ce19a020959560d.png

00_54_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.1546f83e6e528f87116fa5329ed0b390.png

Not all models agree however and a less severe scenario is possible but I feel the midnight update from Arpege won't be far off at all although I expect gusts will be higher than Arpege shows for the Irish sea and Ireland. Also potentially very strong winds northerly winds for the far east of England come Monday morning too. 

Looking at Tuesday an incoming frontal system likely brings very strong winds 40-60mph quite widely then a spell of heavy rain with a pronounced and intense squall line indicated by the sudden bend and opening in the isobars to the left of the tightest squeeze. With much colder air tucking behind and wintry showers for the north and west behind this. 

GFS.. 

1476488677_EUROPE_PRMSL_84(4).thumb.jpg.50591a51c4ad2f6a0fc3ac830e64358c.jpg

1493965367_EUROPE_PRMSL_90(4).thumb.jpg.24e9b5eb067d84b714522943c3864199.jpg

Rainfall.. 👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_84.thumb.jpg.63069d002545db3201619adbb481ec41.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_96.thumb.jpg.4e02e257da12b353a30474962a37062d.jpg

Edited by jordan smith

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The hideous Euro trash high making an unwanted appearance on the GFS this morning.

Seen that wretched high ruin countless winters since the late 80s

🤜

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37 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

The hideous Euro trash high making an unwanted appearance on the GFS this morning.

Seen that wretched high ruin countless winters since the late 80s

🤜

Thankfully the ECM has other ideas 👍 240 still to rôle out but hopefully more WAA in towards Greeny 

44F46069-7A29-4014-84AA-252B64BBC01B.png
 

not sure where this is going!! Anywhere but a euro high will do , it does look like heights are pushing up from N Africa though 😟

397E0DD1-43C2-472E-9B30-BA745D046A1D.png

Edited by Ali1977

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EC  has potential for those up North and with decent altitude...

I would take a stab at anywhere over 300m in the north west will do quite well , 

And ends a little differently to previous op runs..

image.thumb.png.9d947ff17f12bbfcf2f1af4c19fa9540.png

Jet digging south towards the Canaries..

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC  has potential for those up North and with decent altitude...

I would take a stab at anywhere over 300m in the north west will do quite well , 

And ends a little differently to previous op runs..

image.thumb.png.9d947ff17f12bbfcf2f1af4c19fa9540.png

Jet digging south towards the Canaries..

Could go either way looking at the Jet, digging south to our West, heights rising to our SSE!! 

Edited by Ali1977

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Interesting to see the orientation of UKMO at T120 is subtly different from GFS, delivering potential for a much more potent north-westerly on Thursday/Friday.

1451100086_Screenshot2019-12-07at07_28_39.thumb.png.1d0a5e00fe3a44c184b0d838d01069a9.png

 

Contrast this with UKMO which is quite juicy:

1665588890_Screenshot2019-12-07at07_27_25.thumb.png.6e0f1038a724fcde25eeeda275457644.png

Edited by West is Best

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Rain may turn to snow on its back edge during Tuesday evening for Scotland and perhaps parts of northwest England and wales shown mostly on hills. Don't take the detail too literally at this stage from the chart below but the potential is shown. 

GFS.. 

00_90_preciptype.thumb.png.3042d2d2ce033403d9ba7de2121920b5.png

00_93_preciptype.thumb.png.e6dc082b567e6317c41abf60f2a8aef6.png

Edited by jordan smith

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8 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

My main goal is to get some pressure on that PV with some wave 2, to give us hope for the second half of winter, if we can achieve good things in the process of doing so then great.

The second half? The first half hasn't started yet! Let's get to the 22nd Dec first before writing off half the Winter.

First couple of days coming into view - Miles into FI I know but hardly disastrous charts to see in Winter, they will be different next run but just showing writing off the first half of Winter at this point would be foolish.

gfsnh-0-360.thumb.png.b64dd0c602e3a9c34b72730bc05fdddd.pnggfsnh-0-372.thumb.png.489d4449fea50c2644688673032a38ac.pnggfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.fbbd42339eee3f719099d8649d4ecb50.png

Edited by Day 10

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With a generally dismal outlook for cold weather fans, let's hope P9 of the GEFS trumps the pack!

image.thumb.png.c6e0fcc3fd0cf9b1f661e64ca5d4ff05.pngimage.thumb.png.4a9bee3ab21bfc823ba375b7e7c6732b.png

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11 hours ago, tinybill said:

o  what  the heck its friday  night  been out for a couple  of  pints !!!  gfs in fantasy world deep i n  fantasy got this lot heading our way   just waitimg  for  the  pub run!!

gfs-2-384.png

Few Sherberts? :drunk-emoji:

GFS FI looks nothing whatsover exceptional and out of the ordinary.

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42 minutes ago, Purga said:

With a generally dismal outlook for cold weather fans, let's hope P9 of the GEFS trumps the pack!

image.thumb.png.c6e0fcc3fd0cf9b1f661e64ca5d4ff05.pngimage.thumb.png.4a9bee3ab21bfc823ba375b7e7c6732b.png

You know things are bad when you have to pluck one ensemble member out at 15 days away for a good chart!

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Blimey peeps! Only one page of posts, since I went to bed, last night?? Can things really be that bad?:shok:

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