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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

12z Multimodel Graph Temperatures still staying around 9c to 10c next week but the sign of them dropping is still there from this mornings 00z runs Thursday and Friday dropping to around 5c to 6c.

air temp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

The op was on the warmer side of the pack with tonight's mean. And there are still a fair few chilly options on that mean... I don't believe in putting a fur coat and lipstick on a pig, but I've seen worse.. Wouldn't at all be surprised to see a much rosier outlook in the next few days... Let the roller coaster begin. 

graphe_ens3 (1).png

I thought the rollercoaster already began a few days ago

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

Looks like we really could be seeing some real Atlantic batterings by D9 according to GFS 18z

image.thumb.png.1496fda478df452d622d59ec9351276d.png

image.thumb.png.0e3bb55b0d79e0c6acdf5aa05f01e446.png

This is after uppers struggle to go real cold

image.thumb.png.8ab9184be7725955fbabb91d009cedce.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
15 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Looks like we really could be seeing some real Atlantic batterings by D9 according to GFS 18z

image.thumb.png.1496fda478df452d622d59ec9351276d.png

image.thumb.png.0e3bb55b0d79e0c6acdf5aa05f01e446.png

This is after uppers struggle to go real cold

image.thumb.png.8ab9184be7725955fbabb91d009cedce.png

Looks like the PV is really shaking its booty on those charts!

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
2 minutes ago, Don said:

Looks like the PV is really shaking its booty on those charts!

Absolutely - hopefully it'll calm down just before Christmas!

It's a similar theme up until D10.

 

Thank goodness there's still 90 days of Winter to go...

image.thumb.png.050619b8bbe85b60f339a5d4f46f97d9.png

 

Edited by StretfordEnd1996
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
3 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

The disagreement between ECM/GFS begins as early as Monday.

MON.thumb.jpg.eeeec7256d185191e2ad43c196ee3955.jpg

GFS is much sharper with the energy digging further south and as a result we get a more cold air across the UK, ECM less sharp and we see less cold air reaching our shores. UKMO looks likely to be more of a middle ground scenario to me. 

Low lying areas in the south are going to be disappointed but if you live above 200m Midlands northwards then mid-late next week is likely to be incredibly interesting for you.

Always at 200 metres when I live at 149 metres above sea level. Better take up residence on the roof for another winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom

So we've been doing this road before haven't we.. But it's interesting to see how thicknesses are lifting near the UK around 17/18. Both on ECM and GFS

I don't know if others have been following the CFS 9 Months but theres been a consistent pattern of settled and colder conditions around Christmas and beyond (Those that watch GavWeatherVids xmas updates will know what I mean). Could GFS be picking up on something past 300h? It's unlikely given how things are but interesting nevertheless. Never a dull moment

CFS for Christmas Day

image.thumb.png.a7e61da53442bd4362b1f4a8ef9ab066.png

ECM 240 - Note the lighter blues and less purples near Greenland:

image.thumb.png.ea92833dc65541db9b48fda4fbbd5d31.png

GFS 348 - Height rises N+E

image.thumb.png.cead0934fc091c73e614cb67c064ca4c.png

Interested to hear peoples thoughts...

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
9 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

So we've been doing this road before haven't we.. But it's interesting to see how thicknesses are lifting near the UK around 17/18. Both on ECM and GFS

I don't know if others have been following the CFS 9 Months but theres been a consistent pattern of settled and colder conditions around Christmas and beyond (Those that watch GavWeatherVids xmas updates will know what I mean). Could GFS be picking up on something past 300h? It's unlikely given how things are but interesting nevertheless. Never a dull moment

CFS for Christmas Day

image.thumb.png.a7e61da53442bd4362b1f4a8ef9ab066.png

ECM 240 - Note the lighter blues and less purples near Greenland:

image.thumb.png.ea92833dc65541db9b48fda4fbbd5d31.png

GFS 348 - Height rises N+E

image.thumb.png.cead0934fc091c73e614cb67c064ca4c.png

Interested to hear peoples thoughts...

I did indeed note the attempted height rises deep into FI but unfortunately;

-Too far out (yet) and will probably disappear 
-Heights are weak anyway
-Even if it came off that chart above it'd still take a lot of work for cold to arrive in

All in FI - I did see it and note it but that's just me straw clutching after what's been a somewhat tough day of model watching from a cold point of view (beyond next week).

GEFS ensembles beyond D10 show a slight warming trend with barely any brushing the -5 uppers so not really some good signs at the moment but hey it could all change towards the back end of the month (it's only day FIVE of the month after all!) and I've always felt wintry weather around the festive period (though often after 25th) especially towards the end of the year is actually a lot more common than some people think.

 

image.thumb.png.90d6bac198b0e3c992e259dfea39e2ab.png

On a side note - take no notice of the CFS daily run. It's a literal almost random-number-generator model that has extremely little or no scientific/human input and especially for our country is virtually useless, to put it at its bluntest

Edited by StretfordEnd1996
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
4 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

So we've been doing this road before haven't we.. But it's interesting to see how thicknesses are lifting near the UK around 17/18. Both on ECM and GFS

I don't know if others have been following the CFS 9 Months but theres been a consistent pattern of settled and colder conditions around Christmas and beyond (Those that watch GavWeatherVids xmas updates will know what I mean). Could GFS be picking up on something past 300h? It's unlikely given how things are but interesting nevertheless. Never a dull moment

CFS for Christmas Day

image.thumb.png.a7e61da53442bd4362b1f4a8ef9ab066.png

ECM 240 - Note the lighter blues and less purples near Greenland:

image.thumb.png.ea92833dc65541db9b48fda4fbbd5d31.png

GFS 348 - Height rises N+E

image.thumb.png.cead0934fc091c73e614cb67c064ca4c.png

Interested to hear peoples thoughts...

Much will depend on the extent to which the vortex will show a strong degree of coherence, reading a few other posts and thoughts on the development of the PV, there is suggestion still it isn't about to really get its act together, and hence every chance a strong ridge could build over northern lattitudes to continue to put holes in it.. a bit like a train that needs masses of fuel injection to get it into full gear, but the fuel keeps running out quickly, i.e. short sudden sharp bursts as currently forecast over the next week or so, only to slow down again..

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Putting the average output of the Gfs, Ecmwf and Gem together we see its showing a Very unsettled period for the next 7 days atleast which I know many are fully aware now with bouts of heavy rain and very windy perhaps stormy conditions at times particularly atm Sunday night into Monday morning. Still a little uncertainty regarding that but it's likely.. with the winds shown atm strongest for the far west and southwest at first then to more Eastern areas towards Monday morning gales a widespread feature for many parts of England, Wales, Ireland and Northern Ireland. Again Still a little uncertain though. 

6am Sunday..

EUROPE_PRMSL_60.thumb.jpg.ff20e63379e092d228882dd1bc6323fd.jpg

6am Monday..

2831854_EUROPE_PRMSL_84(3).thumb.jpg.ef8de3b74e85624f8d0de7a672e6fa86.jpg

Colder showery conditions between low pressure systems next week this wintry for northern parts at times. 

Just for interest the Dwd Icon really deepened the low to the northwest for tuesday on its midday run. An exceptionally deep low centre of 936mb but now a more "sensible" 944mb still very low ofcourse if that indeed came off. Shows gales for some associated with a potent weather front with heavy rain sweeping through during Tuesday evening/night with that centre drifting southeast in a similar fashion to Sundays low albeit with the centre of pressure rising markedly as it does so. 

What it showed on its earlier update..

EUROPE_PRMSL_126.thumb.jpg.dde9f6846c750d0fd93b6c41bc6a3895.jpg

Wind gusts. Note these are at 10 metres. 

Green =60-70mph yellow = 80mph dark orange/red= 100mph dark red = in excess of 120mph which was shown close to the centre but not now. 

Earlier update..

EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_126.thumb.jpg.b98add64a9734e807e7e3165e2b9ad32.jpg

This evening..

2049474831_EUROPE_PRMSL_120(2).thumb.jpg.acb5d6b69476ff9749f2534492019c86.jpg

Wind gusts.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_120.thumb.jpg.a92b477ad826185f5bd9c967b80e9ac0.jpg

Much weaker but still very strong winds wrapped around this with a squally weather front pushing across England and Wales. But its still 5 days away so don't take these charts for tuesday too literally above in regards to the precise details and depth of that low but It highlights the potential for stormy weather at times next week. 

So the Ecm, Gfs and Gem output averaged out For next week.. 

Tuesday.. 

51524237_EUROPE_PRMSL_120(1).thumb.jpg.b10817c837726be6ec22cdb7875ffa94.jpg

Wednesday.. 

1043208242_EUROPE_PRMSL_144(1).thumb.jpg.a42a2371a1ae1675b5bb33e634a17dfa.jpg

Thursday.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_162.thumb.jpg.c0552f6fa546ee92930faecd2d2e5a60.jpg

Friday..

389837278_EUROPE_PRMSL_192(7).thumb.jpg.4d9567e2de7e89ea2bd1c5c37f284ba9.jpg

Saturday.. 

1171618354_EUROPE_PRMSL_216(1).thumb.jpg.8ac4c5ce1b4895a1846383598abaab44.jpg

Very unsettled with the jetstream remaining over and at times just to the south of the uk towards day 10 with snow at times on hills further north perhaps lower levels occasionally. There will be some drier and brighter periods between these systems so not a total washout. 

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

I’m sure many would take this for 22 Dec, jet stream way south of the U.K., and I imagine pretty cold under that flow, with the PV weakening its grip. 
Is that height rises to our NE?

C82A2CF5-BD0E-4591-92BE-DBDC142FB000.png
 

A few FI ENS look ok

64DE4FB5-D5B8-4DFD-B27B-C270F588C305.png

4B35D3C0-EE84-4E90-AEDD-2E9F63600791.png

21C0A634-2247-4680-8F7E-7C6E58243F97.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and sunny
  • Location: Nottingham, UK

Anyone up for another day 10 chase? Height rises towards Greenland again...

image.thumb.png.1ff9c6df8609c2b6403378bfcaa1fa76.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

This looks promising , HP heading up towards Greeny maybe , bye bye Zonal anyway 

0EF122DB-8D5E-4535-9353-AF138079268D.png

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This looks promising , HP heading up towards Greeny maybe , bye bye Zonal anyway 

0EF122DB-8D5E-4535-9353-AF138079268D.png

It's still zonal that chart, just that we would benefit from a brief colder ridge. 

The trop. PV segment over NE Canada would spit energy out into the Atlantic and flatten the pattern fairly quickly. 

And of course,  this is day 10 ECM chart showing amplification so should be taken with a large dose of salts.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Never a good sign when the angry dog gets a big nose...... 

 

Screenshot_20191206_072526.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
12 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

The op was on the warmer side of the pack with tonight's mean. And there are still a fair few chilly options on that mean... I don't believe in putting a fur coat and lipstick on a pig, but I've seen worse.. Wouldn't at all be surprised to see a much rosier outlook in the next few days... Let the roller coaster begin. 

graphe_ens3 (1).png

Good call  Matt Wolves(Top 5 now,)ECM  trending colder this morning and looking really good at the end of the run.

Maybe it hasn’t over amplified things this time.

Edited by SLEETY
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