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Paul

Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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Highlands - an absolute battering  - 24hours ppn.

Just pivots on the Cairngorm.

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.14d15d8fdf3229ac4455eebb79c65ffe.png

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The jet visiting the Azores here, pretty amazing stuff! 

h500slp.png

 

And on its way to say hello to Cape Verde soon after.

h500slp.png

 

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I was musing along the same lines, models exploring different routes, but the destination ultimately might be the same...if one ridge doesn't take hold the next might?

But there is the problem, if we keep missing our chance with these wedges, the jet might just continue to overrun any further attempts and only the Scottish mountain benefit.

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ICON more in line with the UKMO at 144 than the GFS , and the ICON quickly follows the GFS by T180 turning out very nice.
So we have a good idea on where we are around day 8 but less so by day 6 - Is that even possible!! 

AA567568-6367-4115-B5CC-9ED85B2EBF7D.gif

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4F7162DF-F38B-4847-9652-A58C6A0A75E9.png

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Impossible to say whether we are just seeing run to run variability on GFS since the ensembles have always maintained scatter.

The ridge is still there on the 12z but the larger change is in the jet profile behind which produces less disruption of the low and has it at a lower lat so stalling not as early and disruption SE is not aided by the Greenland land mass.

gfsnh-5-162.png?12gfsnh-0-162.png?12

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We don't want to see the jet getting flatter across the Atlantic.

UKMO showing the same as this morning has to be worry but overall I think a cold spell is still favoured but with marginal conditions for some.

I think ECM will go with GFS as far as the temporary ridge and disruption SE concerned but hopefully with a better SE jet across the Atlantic.

Definitely in the balance though.

 

 

Edited by Mucka

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The more likely scenario - cold dense air shunting the deep low further and further south. 

image.thumb.png.4f44175f18e7746767c0748a20017d06.png

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Our low just clips the Chanel islands and Kent on this run unfortunately. Going be chasing that low around for the next week me thinks !

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Jet stream paying Africa a visit, can’t see a turn around to mild air from here very quickly, nor a big euro HP!! 

E0B1F12D-29BD-4C76-BB9A-5968C8808CCA.png

3216634C-860C-4098-8DF7-AFB9E6C05C18.png

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

gfseu-2-252.png?12

barley touching the UK

....Theres always the Scandi LP.

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

HA HA scandi wedge 276 - 

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Night time temps here surely in the - teens on any snow fields do you think? 
 

Day 10 night temps look severe and I think it’ll just get colder 

71EC1391-40ED-4FB0-9347-27FD0EB76C28.gif

Edited by Ali1977

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Just now, Ali1977 said:

Night time temps here surely in the - teens on any snow fields do you think? 

Yes Scotland central 1995 territory...

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Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

GFS t240.....ALL of UK and Ireland bitterly cold.....Southern counties in for snowmageddon.   And so the cold will go on and on.  I think UKMO isn’t poor, at T144 the LP starts to align and move SE’wards....a tad slower but better than this morning imo

 

BFTP

Very snowy for Scotland too followed by possible ice day(s) 😉 as I mentioned cold zonality can easily deliver. Still lots of runs before certainty can be high but my confidence is growing for wintry weather (especially further north) but runs toying with low pressure to the south so needs watching.

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FWIW GEM 102 is the amplified North solution so that ticks the box....

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Max temps on day 10, Election Day!! Scotland is ridiculously cold for 1300!! 

A2ADBE81-9AD1-4E31-A050-1804BA1B21E2.gif

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14 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

 

Snow storms, channel lows,twenty year cold.bit previous ATM guys???.give it 24 - 48 hours .

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And for good measure, strong heights approaching Greenland. 

h500slp.png

 

All completely just for fun, but the important part is the general pattern for early next week. Anything after is a case of trying to work out vague indications for the macro situation in the longer range. 

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