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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, there's plenty of scatter within the 06Z ensembles, post Day 10!:shok:

t850Leicestershire.png    prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png    prcpLeicestershire.png

Will it be cold? Will it be mild? Will it be somewhere in between? Who knows?:unsure2:

Clueless...! lol

Looking at the GEFS Mean - pressure is on the up so its probably going to be a Green one.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Not too encouraged by what seems to be the trend ..... can’t get the trough to dive south without another pulse of the Azores ridge to follow - hence the colder uppers are continually removed and can’t establish  for any length of time ..... over time looks like euro heights may become more established aswell ... enough uncertainty not to be too downhearted for coldies but certainly not headed where they may have hoped with any confidence for third week Dec 

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

I posted this for a while last winter a graph with several weather models showing the midday temps for London over the next 10 days it gives you a view on where each model stands and also an overall average. For the next few days temps will be around 9c to 10c falling slightly in a weeks time next Thursday and into the weekend with temps around 6c to 7c.

349286807_airtemp.thumb.png.5e69804611553f4ea994fbea0835fac2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Rather sober reading, but to be expected I guess. I never did think December would deliver the goods, unless from a complete surprise. Later into the month, given the signal for my cyclonic conditions, I personally hope charts sequences like this will become more likely:

cfs-0-372.png?12 cfs-0-432.png?12 cfs-0-480.png?12

Perhaps then a chance of sliding lows and undercuts if low heights and higher heights align favourably:

cfs-0-714.png?12

All conjecture and just for fun pulling out these CFS charts but more interesting to look at than some of the trash in the reliable.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Thanks to GP for that reply, right - that at least puts the record straight now, we have heard it from the horses mouth - over to February then!!

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

model watching been painful and i've dropped any ideas of anything to cold in southern england.

back to the drawing board and i think might have to start learning about indian ocean impacts globally.

but these chaotic zonal flows can suddenly change i still believe over time the wave breaking effects will be ongoing.

on a micro scale few hundred miles south and its game on. but as i said yesterday and earlier in the season my 2 recent years of interest was 2009/10 and 2014.

its looking more like the 2014 at the moment.

and if january is heading the same direction might be a good call.

but these types of set ups are good for northern island scotland and northern england perhaps east coast as systems move through the country.

still plenty of time for change but vortex 1 northern blocking 0.

 

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thanks to GP for that reply, right - that at least puts the record straight now, we have heard it from the horses mouth - over to February then!!

Yep we better off going to America or starting a model discussion there 

In more serious terms it never looked like there was going to be a prolonged cold spell let alone in December unfortunately some people did get a bit too excited/hype and have disappeared

For the meantime it's looks like it's going to he below average temperatures with chances of heavy snowfall for Northern england/Scotland

 

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Are we really writing-off the whole of December and January, on the basis of one post from one poster---or am I going stark raving mad?!:crazy:

Being realistic i would say the earliest we would see blocking would be in Jan even before GP's post, i still think an SSW will bring an abrupt  pattern change later in season but first half done and dusted and certainly wouldn't back against GP in a month or a month and a half forecast, although i don't think it is over because even in zonal winters you can still get freak snow events but you need much more luck with those.

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Are we really writing-off the whole of December and January, on the basis of one post from one poster---or am I going stark raving mad?!:crazy:

I do find it a little odd how some posters often mention how anything beyond say +192 is just for fun (which I totally agree on) but then the same people offer us their deep confident predictions for time frames weeks down the line.. ! 
My only usual mention of anything beyond 10 days is through the ensembles

 

Speaking of which - I can still see slight support for these W/WNW/NWN'ly flows to be present after D10 going off the mean

image.thumb.png.dec8220c59a3772f4cae5084c81d0937.png

But further along the line there does now seem to be some relative support for a more W/SW'ly flow

image.thumb.png.9240f8a67a563390ca734d06dbdee443.png

image.thumb.png.eaa00ec25bfd8d086a22d6a6619c9f97.png

 

All seems plausible to me but hopefully those SW'lies will have done one by Christmas!

 

Edited by StretfordEnd1996
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Are we really writing-off the whole of December and January, on the basis of one post from one poster---or am I going stark raving mad?!:crazy:

No.

Every other long range Professional forecaster says much the same.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

So, still in with a shout for a cold day or 2 next week. Hopefully the 12zs show another 1c or 2 lower on the temps to give some lower ground a shout for some wintery activity, Election Day is still looking cold. 
Here is A nice PV chart from the control for later in Dec, if only this were correct , nice displacement there. 

BB40EE9D-3D8A-4214-A180-0FA99328826A.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Are we really writing-off the whole of December and January, on the basis of one post from one poster---or am I going stark raving mad?!:crazy:

I’m defo not, anything beyond day 10-15 could happen !! I’m sure in some U.K. severe winter spells everything was against it happening, then it did . 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Seriously? I have been on this thread for ten years and with all due respect to @Glacier Point he has called it wrong many times. (As I’m sure he would admit)

Please revert back to his posts from January when he was suckered into the big wintry outlook that the teleconnections and Met Office were pointing to. (He vanished soon after) What become of that? Zero wintry conditions and a Blazing hot end to February.

This is not a personal attack as I always look forward to his posts but let’s not talk utter nonsense regarding untouchable forecasts from people. 
If members are going to throw statements like that about a response is merited.
 

Yes but it only takes one little thing to go wrong to scupper a cold spell, i have never seen him forecast a mild or average zonal month or 2 and it bust, because you need at least a good number of ticks in the boxes next to favourable teleconnections so when you hardly have any, it takes a lot to suddenly get a lot of them to flip.

EDIT : still interest in winter but for December im afraid only zonal snowfalls possible not a brutal blocked cold spell.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

One chart that escaped me a little this morning is ECM +240

image.thumb.png.ef6538baaab4a49a58a5ade627ad9b02.png

On face value it's a cool/cold chart for us with winds NW'ly (unlike GFS for this timeframe) but also shows heights trying to push to our NW by the looks of things?

Not that its going to come off, I don't usually deeply analyse D10 charts - just trying to add a bit of light to this thread today - it's one of those days I guess!

image.thumb.png.2918af920197026f04b885847cf54807.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Of course, 'cylonic' doesn't necessarily mean entirely mild and/or without some snow potential  Maybe just not anything hugely significant or sustained.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Wow - heavy stuff with who's wrong and who's right without getting too personal.

Really only need to look at the ensembles for at least in the short(ish) term theyr'e only going one way.

t2mCumbria.thumb.png.af36abc0f1b240a4a21dd849f06e455e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, after last year's fiasco, I would have thought the -- albeit frightening -- realisation that 'every other long range Professional forecaster' can still get things wrong, might have started to sink in by now. And, that LRFers are human too...?:unsure2:

But I guess not!:oldgrin:

It's one thing the Pro's getting it wrong when Cold is forecast and it doesn't arrive and forecasting average/milder and getting it wrong.

I can recall many of the former and not the latter.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

ICON 12z run is a tad more 'aggressive' with its lows than its run this morning

12z first for 00:00 Wednesday

image.thumb.png.c14e211076bb0ae2d09c9e12efad8314.png

image.thumb.png.d43147d82575544971f06403784ac852.png

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