Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, booferking said:

Not bad if you live across the pond east coast blast.

That should fire up the jet before Xmas.

It was ever thus Boofer.

[fromey]

5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Again...why are people getting in a sweat over the +144 UKMO chart? 

Have people read the outlook for what comes almost immediately after this...?

 

Updated at 16:00...key points...initially mild...then more likely to dip below normal temperatures...wintry showers up North...low risk of widespread snowfall on North of rain bands..frost and freezing fog.

That sounds like Winter to me. 

This released an hour ago, not sure where this fits with the latest UKMO charts.

[Ali1977]

Day 9 still looking particularly cold in Scotland and N England , impressive uppers there. 

[Methuselah]

If only this were the start of the three-month-long pattern...?

    

[Skullzrulerz]

8 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Again...why are people getting in a sweat over the +144 UKMO chart? 

Have people read the outlook for what comes almost immediately after this...?

 

Updated at 16:00...key points...initially mild...then more likely to dip below normal temperatures...wintry showers up North...low risk of widespread snowfall on North of rain bands..frost and freezing fog.

That sounds like Winter to me. 

You might be right if it was for the Cairngorms they would get a absolute pasting to say the last 

Rest of England ? Sounds like cold rain and average temperatures 

A huge difference to the latest 12z and yesterday 12z I don't think I need to say no more ..

[sausage]

it seems here as though the azores high was wrongly positioned again in models. it is typical thiugh how when it is finally displaced it still finds a way to arrow towards us wafting us with milder uppers and diverting the lows too far north which explode on a strong northern arm of the jet as always any cold now 9plus away again. downgrades are right infront of oir faces. plain n simple. funny how its never the opposite when its mild. uk met look to have been fooled by this too.

[Mr Frost]

9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Sounds like a forecast for the Scottish highlands to me given the output.  

Nah - they will have huge amounts of snowfall if today’s charts come off. 

 

I guess it all comes down to ones location and glass half full/half empty approach.

Personally I am very happy with the outlook - can see why others in different areas of the UK and Ireland would not be. 

As ever though I think some folk in here forget we live in the UK/Ireland - they seem to wake up and go to bed thinking they live in Northern Finland. 

I am pretty sure every single member in here will see a flake of snowfall this Winter - if not I will eat my sledge. 

Edited December 4, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Mucka]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 9 still looking particularly cold in Scotland and N England , impressive uppers there. 

Unfortunately the cold air is over most of England for barely 24h, very typical zonal flow and we are back to wind and rain.

Looking for a 24hr cold shot in FI is a long way from Yesterday I'm afraid. 

That said, I'm sure thing s will begin to improve again soon and it is back aboard the hype train

 

NW England used to do very well from set ups liek this but the air never seems cold enough these days and all we get is rain,hail and sleet.

Good dumping for the hills though.

Edited December 4, 2019 by Mucka

[Yarmy]

The MetO outlook referenced above is presumably informed by MOGREPS output. Perhaps there's a signal for more disruption there, but there's little point speculating on a model to which us plebs have no access.

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

The MetO outlook referenced above is presumably informed by MOGREPS output. Perhaps there's a signal for more disruption there, but there's little point speculating on a model to which us plebs have no access.

IT does sound very much more like it is based upon something like yesterdays ECM output. Often I have noticed the forecast seem to be based upon older output. When see the models flip here to mild from cold say 5/6 days out the overnight forecast is often still talking of cold and snow until the next day.

I hope you are right though, something to hold on to other scanning deep FI once more.

[Leon1]

Not all hope is lost, it could only take another 24 hours to flip back the other way. It has happened before.

[snowstorm27x]

11 minutes ago, fromey said:

This released an hour ago, not sure where this fits with the latest UKMO charts.

Reminds me of that ECM and the beeb latched on to the phantom Easterly that never was. Expect tonight's update will be Possible heavy Snow in Scotland and potentially disruptive storms in the south. Temps recovering to average after a blink and you will miss it toppler. We still have time for more downgrades also. Once the models downgrade like today they never go back.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Helo.... SOS.. I'm confused here, some posts saying its looking slightly better!! Others saying, the downgrade continues and it's terrible!! We don't even get to see the UKMO ensembles, just an operational run. Can we at least wait till the GFS ens are available before we make any sweeping judgements. The op may turn out to be an outlier! Also I expect a decent ECM and a mean... Don't ask me why.... Perhaps its my confusement!!! But I know what I'm talking about..

[Snowman.]

Mild SW’lys looking unlikely still as it stands the PV really pushing down hard on NW Europe. 

[Mair Snaw]

We have been here before many a time. the models struggle with this kind of set up because it is not the UK default weather type. the models often pick up these type of patterns then drop them for a few runs only to pick them back up again, so i would say lets wait another 24/48 hours before we start jumping off of the cliff.

[Mapantz]

Keep it to the models, please?!

There are plenty of other threads for general discussion.

Thanks. 

[ALL ABOARD]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

IT does sound very much more like it is based upon something like yesterdays ECM output. Often I have noticed the forecast seem to be based upon older output. When see the models flip here to mild from cold say 5/6 days out the overnight forecast is often still talking of cold and snow until the next day.

I hope you are right though, something to hold on to other scanning deep FI once more.

Yes i agree often always a day behind in my opinion. 

Poor charts from where we were yesterday as they say another one bites the dust. 

That's not to say it won't be chilly with snow/hail rain showers but not to the extend of yesterday. 

ECM is becoming poorer as the years go on for me not as reliable as it used to be. Time for an upgrade? 

Winter 1 - Me - 0. 

Onto the next one I'll be here till March. 

[northwestsnow]

Clearly, a lot will hinge on that horrid low at 144...

We need the jet digging as far south as possible to prevent the Azores high ridging eastwards.

GFS fi a PM fest with hills in the North probably getting plenty of snow.

Down south and low lying areas it looks crap though.

[Chesil View]

I'm getting the feeling that the period between now and the beginning of Christmas week will see repeated arctic outbreaks punctuated by brief milder/less cold spells. At least northerlies or northwesterlies open up the possibilities for troughs and polar lows.

[NorthernRab]

19 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

You might be right if it was for the Cairngorms they would get a absolute pasting to say the last 

Rest of England ? Sounds like cold rain and average temperatures 

A huge difference to the latest 12z and yesterday 12z I don't think I need to say no more ..

Have the Cairngorms shifted 400 miles south without me realising? I'd have thought I'd have noticed.

It really wouldn't take much at all for this particular operational run (never mind the ensembles!) to give some significant snowfall for Scotland and even parts of northern England.

The "huge" difference between yesterday's operational 12z and today's should be teaching folk a lesson about how knife edge this sort of set up can be and how it could possibly turn more favourable quite quickly. 

[LRD]

Well, a downgrade it certainly is from this time yesterday, although the UKMO was looking ok at 120. But looks grim now it has to be said. FI on the GFS 12z is also poor

No white but some interesting weather on the way. Disappointing though it has to be said

The only straw to grasp is that the modelling is as volatile as the weather will be next week so who knows what might happen. I doubt things will head back to cold though as it rarely works out like that

Oh well. First world problems!

EDIT: the above is from an IMBY perspective. Scotland, NI and the far north and north-west of England look like doing well

Edited December 4, 2019 by LRD

[Anthony Burden]

Next week still looking wintery,Thursday and Friday potential for snow in Scotland and northern England

Friday anywhere in U.K. 

[LRD]

The jet is still trying to go south even deep in FI but not south enough. And this is a very familiar winter chart for Europe minus the cold going to Greece:

[LRD]

For those of a nervous disposition don't look at the control post-election day! 

Just think about the Glosea seasonal model predictions and you have the control run. Eeek

Edited December 4, 2019 by LRD

[Beanz]

Well its certainly a much less cold 12Z overall and now with a more westerly flavour.  Cool and unsettled into next week for the vast majority of the UK as it currently stands.  However, it's still 10days away, which (ignoring those suggesting otherwise) the models can and do flip back and forth between synoptic patterns - so it's all possible.