Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[frosty ground]

7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Poor from the Icon, but I would guess day 8-10 might be good would depend on that energy to the west whether it wants to flatten the pattern or not.

It would drag cold air south at least temporally. Jet is also to the south

[Frosty.]

Just before the 12z roller coaster, I thought most of you would like to see these GEFS 6z postage stamps because later next week could be potentially very wintry across a large swathe of the uk!!!❄..fingers crossed!!

Edited December 4, 2019 by JON SNOW

[StretfordEnd1996]

Better is the best word to describe this

 

UKMO 12z

Edited December 4, 2019 by StretfordEnd1996

[Allseasons-Si]

The UKMO at 120...

that's better

[ArHu3]

The MJO looks like it's picking up some amplitude again according to the gefs, so we could see some chances blocking again end of December/ early January 

[StretfordEnd1996]

GFS vs UKMO +120

GFS first

Very very similar and both 'respectable' 

[SMU]

GFS & UKMO on the same page now a quick transient Northerly flow followed by mild SW winds as the azores high nudges in pretty poor TBH in the 144 range - Mild.

There may again be some fruity charts past 168 however it relies heavily on the main trough getting east of the UK

Edited December 4, 2019 by Steve Murr

[booferking]

Lol side by side the UKMO is now better than GFS makes alot less of that low in Atlantic.

[WxHerts]

Anyone know why UKMO 144h hasn't come out yet? Much better by d5 anyway..

[booferking]

Just now, WXHerts said:

Anyone know why UKMO 144h hasn't come out yet? Much better by d5 anyway..

Out now low explodes into life.

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, WXHerts said:

Anyone know why UKMO 144h hasn't come out yet? Much better by d5 anyway..

It's out now.

 

[Mucka]

Marginally better disruption again on GFS 02z 144 so should be a little more amplified behind at least

Edited December 4, 2019 by Mucka

[Iceaxecrampon]

5 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

GFS vs UKMO +120

GFS first

Very very similar and both 'respectable' 

GFS has the best probability of a NW angle of attack other than the Scandi LP incursion.

[Wilxy]

Looks very stormy if this is correct, look how strong those winds are across Ireland!

[mhielte]

Surprised to see the UKMO explode a bowling ball low from t120-144. It looked great before then as well. How much are we trusting that evolution? The jet must really engage to steamroll our heights to the west so convincingly. I can't imagine the 00z will look quite the same.

[Mucka]

Yes certainly looking like a stormy spell of weather, GFS looked like it was going to disrupt more at 144 but then blows up insanely next frame.

A very brief Northerly, a brief milder blip and then Cold wet and windy for a few days so far.

 

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Runs are getting worse and worse for coldies.

Not bad if you live across the pond east coast blast.

That should fire up the jet before Xmas.

[swfc]

Positives on the 12z on a postage stamp please!!!! Day 6-7 and extreme wind and yet more ------- rain!!!

[Mr Frost]

Again...why are people getting in a sweat over the +144 UKMO chart? 

Have people read the outlook for what comes almost immediately after this...?

 

Updated at 16:00...key points...initially mild...then more likely to dip below normal temperatures...wintry showers up North...low risk of widespread snowfall on North of rain bands..frost and freezing fog.

That sounds like Winter to me. 

Edited December 4, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Weathizard]

4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Again...why are people getting in a sweat over the +144 UKMO chart? 

Have people read the outlook for what comes really soon after this...?

 

Updated at 16:00...key points...initially mild...then more likely to dip below normal temperatures...wintry showers up North...low risk of widespread snowfall on North of rain bands..frost and freezing fog.

That sounds like Winter to me. 

Sounds like a big downgrade from yesterday to me. The downgrade since yesterday’s 12z are there for all to see, it’s an absolutely stark difference.

12z yesterday at day 8, 12z today now at day 7. Poor. To pretend anything else is simply bogus.

Edited December 4, 2019 by Weathizard

[frosty ground]

Be grateful the jet is buckled like this

[frosty ground]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Sounds like a big downgrade from yesterday to me. The downgrade since yesterday’s 12z are there for all to see, it’s an absolutely stark difference.

12z yesterday at day 8, 12z today now at day 7. Poor.

It's only a downgrade if you disregarded the ensembles and the range of possible outcomes.

 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Again...why are people getting in a sweat over the +144 UKMO chart? 

Have people read the outlook for what comes almost immediately after this...?

 

Updated at 16:00...key points...initially mild...then more likely to dip below normal temperatures...wintry showers up North...low risk of widespread snowfall on North of rain bands..frost and freezing fog.

That sounds like Winter to me. 

Agree..I must be viewing utterly different data!!!!

 

Jeez...It's all primmed...just ironing out the wrinkles..=the bowling ball lp..Will continue to be modeled in different aspects over coming two days...which in turn could well allow a wider doorway at the greeny part...then it's a whole other evolution..around 144 onwards!!

[mhielte]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Positives on the 12z on a postage stamp please!!!! Day 6-7 and extreme wind and yet more ------- rain!!!

There's clearly something in the water for both GFS and UKMO to spin up such a deep area of low pressure next week. The angle of attack means that for many it will be wet rather than white as we don't drag enough cold air down from the north. Also the potential for some serious winds should this system verify as shown (likely to be moderated I would've thought). Not what people want to see really but meteorologically it is interesting to see where we go from here.

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Again...why are people getting in a sweat over the +144 UKMO chart? 

Have people read the outlook for what comes almost immediately after this...?

 

Updated at 16:00...key points...initially mild...then more likely to dip below normal temperatures...wintry showers up North...low risk of widespread snowfall on North of rain bands..frost and freezing fog.

That sounds like Winter to me. 

Sounds like a forecast for the Scottish highlands to me given the output.