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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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1 hour ago, LRD said:

UKMO arctic profile is good

image.thumb.png.1cb8c1a96bcbf94a0bbe780531806825.png

I'd expect to see the Iberian/Az High dragged out west in the next frames

Yes it looks ok imo.think if you looked at yesterday run and today's it did look the more plausible.it will change but people may need to lower the bar an expectations going forward.there isn't imo any real blocking to the north and the PV to the nw is gaining strength.that said the sliding of areas of low pressure is still plausible.best bet I'd have is to watch the run to run variance and just see how it evolves!!!

Edited by swfc

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06z pushes it even further east early doors and less amplification. Can already see where this is going unfortunately. Look at that dartboard low also.

 

h500slp.thumb.png.d1e84b989d893d554b454a4222bddd2f.png

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Next week still mostly cold with snow in the mix.All about low pressure tracking in regards to how much 

and where,weekend before the tracks of low pressure worked out better.

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Slightly flatter in the Atlantic early doors, but more amplified through the states into the Arctic,  so should be a slightly better ridge

gfs 144 4th dec 19.png

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This should be back on track!!!..

Are we gonna end on a high note....and perhaps a tri-vortex...

And an' ample classic 3way block format..

 

1521519064_gfs1444thdec19.webp

Edited by tight isobar

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Better Amplification in the atlantic on the 6z   will feel raw i would have thought   Snow for election day  again  for the north wales and parts of the midlands

image.thumb.png.961ea6fee0ac7536b1c29a46482570cc.png

Edited by weirpig

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Who would of thought it? Lol. As a result of being better upstream we get to this, trough needs to trickle east to allow the floodgates to open 

gfs 186 4th dec 6z.png

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As the famous saying from Home alone says wow what a hole. Huge ridge from the states carving the Votrex to pieces. Surely we cant be that unlucky not to profit from this. The NH view is impressive.

 

Screenshot_20191204-102005_Firefox.thumb.jpg.4b3bcac0566cf6d0a0ec970a0c61f7e4.jpg

 

 

 

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There will be many upgrades and unfortunately downgraded run to run. You must be mad to take every run as gospel. I for one couldn’t take the stress lol it’s bad enough as it is.

although the 06 gfs is better so I guess it’s back on for a few hours at least 😂

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2 hours ago, swfc said:

 

Slight improvent on the 6z

Short blast of cold then fi  the PV ramps up .pretty consistent tbh has is the case with the na of the PV being that strong

Edited by swfc

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Looks like a 24 hour window before the northern arm powers through, it’s an unsavable by 216 with the whole North Atlantic patten flattening

C39388EA-1BD3-4B80-A198-5732CFE09D75.png

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Just now, Weathizard said:

Looks like a 24 hour window before the northern arm powers through, it’s an unsavable by 216 with the whole North Atlantic patten flattening

C39388EA-1BD3-4B80-A198-5732CFE09D75.png

gfs-1-228.png?6gfs-1-234.png

Well if you actually look at the charts and look at the detail you will see that the early signs of increased amplification has squeezed out the mild sector and its starts to look a bit colder for longer.

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Incoming jellyfish     very cold atlantic at this point

image.thumb.png.98343e5a3f9588ea199347d3d6f91ede.png

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7 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:

As the famous saying from Home alone says wow what a hole. Huge ridge from the states carving the Votrex to pieces. Surely we cant be that unlucky not to profit from this. The NH view is impressive.

 

Screenshot_20191204-102005_Firefox.thumb.jpg.4b3bcac0566cf6d0a0ec970a0c61f7e4.jpg

 

 

 

Whilst a portion of the PV remains over NE Canada, then yes, we can easily miss out as the PV portion continues to spit energy Eastwards to flatten the pattern for us.

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Definitely would be some snow on the 6z if a somewhat short lived cold snap - the GEFS by the way are no different to what they showed yesterday and i would expect the eps to be the same, i love to see a good op run come out but remember past 192 it is just one of a 20 member suite - thats the way to look at it - in fact i would go even further - past 144 i would rather have >10 ens showing a favourable outcome for snow than 1 op and 5 members and the other 15 showing zonal. Not saying its going to be a great spell this - it isn't but you are really just hoping for one freak marginal event to pop up during these type of events really - thats how i look at it.

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GFS at 192 hrs forms this small low west of the south of England and it then tracks east across to Europe 

bringing in the really cold air from the north around Friday of next week.Again tracking the correct position 

of the low or lows is the key to every door for cold lovers of course.

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Nae bad, at T+222...Just needs things to fall right, and we could be in for a treat?:cold:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-1-228.png?6gfs-1-234.png

Well if you actually look at the charts and look at the detail you will see that the early signs of increased amplification has squeezed out the mild sector and its starts to look a bit colder for longer.

Its a 24/36 hour transient period for favoured areas, IMO that’s pretty normal winter for the UK. Nothing sustained or cold enough for a snowy spell at low levels across most of the UK at this point, subject to change of course.

5929849A-68A6-4D4B-A153-F0F8AA51ECE6.png

Edited by Weathizard

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I will take snowfall this early in Winter anytime...whether that be for 1 hour, 24 hours or beyond! 😀
 

Even big @Steve Murr has a chance of a Kentimeter or two on this run down in New Ash Green. 🎅😁

206176C0-4207-49AF-B83C-49B81B7B00A1.thumb.png.1057dfb6d717b12af1dda9e44263106b.png4A802DA5-0B34-43D7-ADF9-75113B91D65E.thumb.png.4c1b95e9877bc35360d12e862cb55f1e.png

The risk of wintry weather from next Tuesday is a consistent theme currently and this applies to many parts of the UK and Ireland. 

Not a bad start to Meteorological Winter (if it does indeed become reality) and also makes for interesting/exciting model/charts/outlooks viewing. 

It’s the most wonderful time of the year...❄️

Edited by Mr Frost

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