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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


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I still cant believe the ukmo has almost trumped the ecm and gfs though!!really poor from both models you would expect them to handle things way better across the states and the atlantic!!doesnt really give you much confidence in the models really!!

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Seriously? I have been on this thread for ten years and with all due respect to @Glacier Point he has called it wrong many times. (As I’m sure he would admit) Please revert back to his posts from

Are we really writing-off the whole of December and January, on the basis of one post from one poster---or am I going stark raving mad?!

Evening All- Today is probably the first day that many will start to take notice of the ECM ( & of course the UKMO which dovetails nicely in together at 144 ) What we have here is a clea

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Can’t really argue that’s a pretty major downgrade too much energy going over the top AGAIN seems to happen every time, judging by the vortex movement could be a few weeks of pain.

88BE9078-4424-4DEB-BEEB-1CD4F2B564CC.png

FAF2A13E-CC94-498C-A67E-9586415400B6.png

Edited by Weathizard
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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

I still cant believe the ukmo has almost trumped the ecm and gfs though!!really poor from both models you would expect them to handle things way better across the states and the atlantic!!doesnt really give you much confidence in the models really!!

You better believe it, as Steve says, never bet against the UKMO if it’s sticking to its guns! 

I lose count over the years how often this has been the case.  No point getting excited about potential scenarios such as those modelled last night by GFS & ECM if the UKMO is remaining on the less cold side.  

Golden rule number 2 I think that is...or was it 3? 

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3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

You have to laugh at some comments on here.

so I get up as usual and go on the model output to read.....it’s all over!! Then as actually have a look at the models and think this if far from over. Yes ok it’s not as good as yesterday but in general we are pretty much on the same page, few small tweaks here and there and it’s back to stunning.

its still a week away and was never going to be the same every day, there will be ups and downs along the way people but we all know that!

Yep - or you could have taken a more balanced view like a very small minority did and factored in other possible outcomes....then you wouldn’t get mass hysteria. But we should know by now that’s not how this place operates in winter ?

 

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16 minutes ago, shaky said:

Bloody hell you would think the charts are a complete downgrade this morning judging from some of the comments!!after looking at them they not that bad!!ukmo looks better than yesterday!!its more of a middle ground solution in my opinion!!

Problem is that middle ground solution is useless to anywhere other than Scotland and the high ground of Northern England. There is no denying Snow or even a cold spell is odds against now and what is even worse now is the deep cold to the north and west of us will be charging thst damm Atlantic and creating some nice storms for the UK. Flooding again I predict will be the issue not snow unfortunately. Sucks but this chase is like a Dodo utterly dead. Next time we must wait for cross model agreement.

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13 minutes ago, shaky said:

I still cant believe the ukmo has almost trumped the ecm and gfs though!!really poor from both models you would expect them to handle things way better across the states and the atlantic!!doesnt really give you much confidence in the models really!!

Which begins to make me think we should just have a sole ukmo thread! 

 

It's pretty poor...but it's not completely without interest. I'll give it all of today's runs before putting the phone down.

 

Fingers crossed.

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3 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Which begins to make me think we should just have a sole ukmo 

If the UKMO (which we pay for) gave us free access to similar products as the GFS (which we don't pay for) then I doubt we would look at the GFS at all.

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Below is yesterdays 850 temps for my area, first from the 12z and secondly from this mornings 0z, apart from the rougue operational on the 12z, the average 850 temp across the ensembles is barely any different, if anything, its slightly better long term this morning ?

gfs-consett-gb-55n-2w (1).png

gfs-consett-gb-55n-2w.png

Edited by North East Blizzard
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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not sure why so much misery about the Ukmo .... the other models are hardly showing wintry nirvana prior to day 7 away from the hilly sweaties .....

it could be that the Ukmo would go onto better things than the other models looking at its polar profile at day 6

Indeed so Blue. My initial thought on seeing this morning's runs was simply a slower evolution to cold /wintry synoptics rather than a slamming of the door. Much though I would have loved yesterday's 06 GFS givibg  45 CMS of snow for central southern England from the Blizzard of the century. ?❄️

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1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Use those websites at your peril, they are shocking.

Anyway, the ECM still looks good to me, surprised it’s not been mentioned. Here at 192.

FB824B75-4733-4741-977E-BBA46AB0B4C6.png
 

Probably a toppler but still a decent Northerly blast at day 9

61DC9E5F-FF19-430B-8E6C-FFF58D5DC88C.png

lol - whats not to like with Keswick this time of year? ?

Just thought I'd cheer one or two up after the Murr bombshell.

Scotland and NE  looking excellent.

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.786b784b285b7d350b1c4ae85455cff7.png

Possible NW streamers for Friday 13th?

nwnwnwnwnw.thumb.png.ca9836cd60d78d86aef87bf4a299f6ff.png

All to play for - eyes down for the 06Z 

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Just as a reminder, we do have a new thread to look at the nowcasts, models and teleconnections minus the winter cold hunting rollercoaster ride. So, if that's for you please head over there:

 

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Also i said give it till friday before getting excited!!mate it didnt even last till wednesday evening?!!the inevitable flattening down of all the amplification looks to be happening!!over to the 06zs!!i give it till the 12zs before packing it in!

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or  maybe wait till it all hits the reliable timeframe before writing off any cold spell,can easily go the other way again,same overreacting in the model thread again.

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1 minute ago, weathergeek said:

Gggrrr..... well I suppose we all knew it was all a bit too good to be true that far out BUT things haven't gone from wonder to blunder!!! Still lots of potential and could still change from run to run yet!

I was all prepared to go full "Day After Tomorrow"! Still, we can still hope for something!
 

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

or  maybe wait till it all hits the reliable timeframe before writing off any cold spell,can easily go the other way again,same overreacting in the model thread again.

I agree I think we need be patient here cold snap or spell is still over a week away don’t think models haven’t even got right idea yet how cold weather unfolds bbc long range seemed very confident of cold and wintery conditions next week ..

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