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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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As usually happens in theses scenarios the models will flip and flop and we will no doubt end up with an insignificant compromise, wouldn’t be surprised to see it be dropped completely in the next couple of days only to creep back as above ! 

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5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

In fact,i will take it further,a nice little robin sat on a perch told me that winter is coming😁

gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.2cec0e2e0d1f05b1b3bd4ad550b033ea.pnghow-to-encourage-robins-to-use-a-nest-box-864x576.thumb.jpg.cff9c0dbcae72a630bfb45b3bc6326e9.jpg

 

Disgusting NH for mid December. Can't believe we've seeing things like this for weeks really strange start to winter already.

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John says it very often to look model to model and run to run.you will see a theme.anything beyond 144-162 hours is really just for fun.if your looking for anything else you will be generally always be disappointed imo.

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Destination Scandi!

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.31df6bc1688f7b934e34e9699b8621bc.png

the cfs was showing this.

night guys,will view the 00z in the morning,great charts and post's as always.

C U for now.

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Absolutely frigid GFS 18Z...

I spot a -14 in Scotland...and plenty of harsh frosts elsewhere...

 

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What a disappointing GFS run however to be fair it was kind of expected in the end as It clearly over done the heights with previous runs 

I'm fully aware that the UKMO is the rogue model to some due to what it's showing but it definitely can't be discounted and it could be right all along 

Give a few more days before making any conclusions

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If I'm being honest that wasn't the GEFS ensembles I was expecting to see - it's thrown perhaps another twist (out to D14)

image.thumb.png.7c76513dbc98a7717f1ee195b1b6f199.png

It's almost as if around D8-11 there's a big 'either or' split with a chunk of members either going pretty mildish (well back towards the 30yr average) and then a good chunk going for something much much colder - there's not really an inbetween around that timeframe

Either way I think there are some detailed timings unraveling themselves now from what I've seen tonight in terms of the uppers - initial chance around D6 for cold uppers to try to filter into much of the country but thereafter they warm up a tad - and warm up enough to probably mean rain rather than snow for the vast majority of us. Thereafter beyond around the back end of D8 onwards to around D11 that's when it looks the best chance of us getting something much cooler - but this isn't guaranteed in any way shape or form yet. There are perhaps around 11-15 members that have uppers cold enough for decent cold/snow around this period. The others can't be ignored though.

 Even further ahead it does look as though we see a general scatter beyond D11 but that's expected - op remains a big outlier around this time but is it a trend setter? Probably not but either way the whole GEFS from start to finish to me provides absolutely no support at all for something in the way of a euroslug or raging SW'lies - and when that's the case it always means everything is all so interesting!

As for 0z .. wouldn't be surprised if they further back away - wouldn't surprise me if they don't. We're balancing.. on the edge 

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That rain for Friday takes a little longer to clear eastwards for southern regions but clears by the afternoon. 

3am Friday.. 

18_57_preciptype.thumb.png.461a8629ef86a1ac7541958c064385c7.png

9am..

18_63_preciptype.thumb.png.91c734b1b5111005e3d8cdbef2568321.png

12pm..

18_66_preciptype.thumb.png.0017119c4a183bfc8daeebd6953ba568.png

Regarding Tuesday's elongated frontal system modelled by the Gfs and Ecm the Gfs still shows this coming into fairly cold air with heavy rain moving in falling as snow for northern areas along with Scotland. Bare in mind this is marginal and the Gfs does have a thing with exaggerating snow extent but you get the idea.

18_159_preciptype.thumb.png.07f96d69264502ad9097ef7518691982.png

18_162_preciptype.thumb.png.2c86b08227ed6bc72e5052f144ed9e4b.png

18_165_preciptype.thumb.png.02379a4a8f089e44b67eade3e523c1cc.png

A week away so overall its more about the overall pattern atm but the Gfs has been pretty consistent with this. I won't go any further because things get very flip floppy and complicated beyond Tuesday you could say how things evolve from Sunday to Tuesday is complicated too.. which is why caution is somewhat needed with the area of snow above. 

Talking about Sunday that low I was watching closely a few days ago the Gfs strengthens the winds around this system a little more with gales in places before it clears into the north sea. 

18_117_windvector_gust.thumb.png.e50ec8ba0068b84ad80a1691f978b871.png

18_120_windvector_gust.thumb.png.a266527c381afe03ad93d9c6d48af4df.png

18_126_windvector_gust.thumb.png.d72e056ede41d471087a6e3e5dc58cc5.png

Edited by jordan smith

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10 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

If I'm being honest that wasn't the GEFS ensembles I was expecting to see - it's thrown perhaps another twist (out to D14)

image.thumb.png.7c76513dbc98a7717f1ee195b1b6f199.png

It's almost as if around D8-11 there's a big 'either or' split with a chunk of members either going pretty mildish (well back towards the 30yr average) and then a good chunk going for something much much colder - there's not really an inbetween around that timeframe

Either way I think there are some detailed timings unraveling themselves now from what I've seen tonight in terms of the uppers - initial chance around D6 for cold uppers to try to filter into much of the country but thereafter they warm up a tad - and warm up enough to probably mean rain rather than snow for the vast majority of us. Thereafter beyond around the back end of D8 onwards to around D11 that's when it looks the best chance of us getting something much cooler - but this isn't guaranteed in any way shape or form yet. There are perhaps around 11-15 members that have uppers cold enough for decent cold/snow around this period. The others can't be ignored though.

 Even further ahead it does look as though we see a general scatter beyond D11 but that's expected - op remains a big outlier around this time but is it a trend setter? Probably not but either way the whole GEFS from start to finish to me provides absolutely no support at all for something in the way of a euroslug or raging SW'lies - and when that's the case it always means everything is all so interesting!

As for 0z .. wouldn't be surprised if they further back away - wouldn't surprise me if they don't. We're balancing.. on the edge 

EC monthly looks to go mild 3rd week of Dec, which ties in with the bunch on ENS going mild in FI!! Hopefully no more backtracks on nexts weeks cold, then see what happens!! 

16FBD668-D62E-4B06-BC88-A35205190C94.png

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When will we learn unless its Snowing outside it's never a guarantee and can always change and so often does. I didn't want to jump for joy until UKMO was on board. It's always the same if one model disagrees that's the one that is correct. Its sods law I am afraid and has given us all many scars of the snow persuasion. Fully expect in a few hours the gfs to have a much flatter ridge and falling inline with UkMO. Its only a few days into Winter so even if this chance flops there will be many more to come in the the next few months. Roller coaster fully engaged. let the fun begin. ❄❄🎄

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2 hours ago, sorepaw1 said:

I don't think I'm on the same wavelength I'm struggling to see snow

GFS 18z for next Tuesday looks wet and cool . I aren't getting excited about that. 

It's more of a westerly flow next week isn't it.. 

As I say .

I'm sure someone will put me right if I'm wrong ..

19121009_0318.gif

Perhaps your struggling to see snow because your looking at the wrong type of chart for what might be falling. :pardon:

Look at my post earlier for the same time frame you'll see what it's shown to fall as, Likely Exaggerated ofcourse. 🙂

Edited by jordan smith

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43 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:

When will we learn unless its Snowing outside it's never a guarantee and can always change and so often does. I didn't want to jump for joy until UKMO was on board. It's always the same if one model disagrees that's the one that is correct. Its sods law I am afraid and has given us all many scars of the snow persuasion. Fully expect in a few hours the gfs to have a much flatter ridge and falling inline with UkMO. Its only a few days into Winter so even if this chance flops there will be many more to come in the the next few months. Roller coaster fully engaged. let the fun begin. ❄❄🎄

As I said a few weeks back, if you follow the model that is showing the worst prospects for UK cold, you won't go too far wrong 🙂

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ICON somewhat different to previous runs this morning

ICON Today/yesterday

iconnh-0-120.png?04-00iconnh-0-144.png?01-12

The low doesn't really disrupt and it sits to the West of the UK mixing out any cold air with less amplification behind

iconnh-0-168.png?04-00iconnh-0-180.png?04-00

It would pull cold from the N eventually as the trough pushed through but not as good as some previous runs. Not a disaster by any means and the real test is UKMO anyway

Edited by Mucka

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UKMO 00z not dissimilar to ICON so a bit of improvement. Could do without the deep low upstream which ICON is now also modelling. Over to GFS.

UN120-21.GIF?04-04UN144-21.GIF?04-04

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its all over folks.

Never bet against the UKMO... 😞

Yep, and regardless of the background signals, that is where years and years of model watching experience comes into play Steve.

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10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its all over folks.

Never bet against the UKMO... 😞

I would give it another run Steve since it at least sees the mini ridge if not the disruption. 

As crewe says all those many years of experience had the forum hold on for UKMO  but we have seen further twists as well just as people threw towel in and we could still eek out some cold after the trough moves through, just not the dream charts that deep down we probably knew were dreams.

Models in decent agreement this morning for 144

gfsnh-0-144.pngUN144-21.GIFiconnh-0-144.png

Edited by Mucka

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3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I would give it another run Steve since it at least sees the mini ridge if not the disruption. 

As crewe says all those many years of experience had the forum hold on for UKMO  but we have seen further twists as well just as people threw towel in and we could still eek out some cold after the trough moves through, just not the dream charts that deep down we probably knew were dreams.

I agree. I'm waiting until Sun/Mon to see how this evolves. Sure it could be that the cold snap gets snuffed out but we shall see...

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GFS does eventually pull some cold air down out towards FI but, to be honest, there's no point hanging our hats on day 9 when the nearer term is downgrading run by run

image.thumb.png.6f50fb50d7dab315caea170b00228e3f.png

Edited by CreweCold

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Very disappointing to lose the signal for a good freeze, but day 8/9 still pretty cold and snowy further north.
day 10 it still has some cold air around and A very cold NW’ly flow looking on the cards.

606C44B2-4BCE-45E5-8E38-272ED69BEEA8.png

C0D48ED7-1683-4D2C-9D52-648C72D04E5B.png

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Not too sure we'd want to see -20 uppers barrelling into the N Atlantic- could cause some nasty little zipper lows to develop at the base of the main troughing

image.thumb.png.8bb86b8e5d31c86e94fc12432a27c254.png

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