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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

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15 minutes ago, shaky said:

Need that little low to develop around the eastern states at 90 hours and it will be game on!!that is where the ukmo departs from the other output very early on aswell!!

Think we're good to go, shaky, GFS T90, where those numbers are...(on the chart SW)

image.thumb.jpg.4bd9a53a3622cd12bcd435a509a4e67d.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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Anyone seen the 06 cfs,it has the same synoptic as the gfs/ecm to an extent and even goes on to show a Scandi high afterwards.

i know it's the cfs but have a gander

12z cfs out now and still shows some type of Scandi high forming but not as good as the 06z

anyway the UKMO days 6/7 via:-

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

shows trough disrupting SE.

ukm2.2019120912_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.edb49c7d6bdc87be0a136174fcb3ec2c.pngukm2.2019121012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.8f1c092cb99dbdd279896824c2999f12.png

 

 

 

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Deadly silence in here!!!assume theres no changes for the good or better!over to the 00zs then lol!

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GFS 18z for +144 compared to 6z.. ridge slightly eastimage.thumb.png.a6a0997698b01fab187ae43d18bd64a0.png

image.thumb.png.68d4a43ed3c34381eb810933623436fb.png

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Well the 18z isn't as amplified but still shows heights in that area at 120.

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.4a467e07c1510907bb495b3b8dca257a.png

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well the 18z isn't as amplified but still shows heights in that area at 120.

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.4a467e07c1510907bb495b3b8dca257a.png

Similar to EC...

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Just now, shaky said:

Deadly silence in here!!!assume theres no changes for the good or better!over to the 00zs then lol!

Its a slight downgrade with the pattern further East compared to the 12z, but the reason i say slight is because there was never going to be snow from that plunge to any great extent, its how the next 60-80 hours of charts go and the slider that counts, i would hang fire on judging it until 200 hours.

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18z a little less amplified than the 12z which was a little less amplified than the crazy 06z 

this run probably close to the middle of the envelope at day 6

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GFS 18z at T144 compared with T150 on 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.44b350e770517de5e748dd1e05316e9b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.60c62833d8f653981c68a1bbccb74e49.jpg

Looks a weaker block, but that's not the end of the story because it may actually aid the next ridge to come, we will see...

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

18z a little less amplified than the 12z which was a little less amplified than the crazy 06z 

this run probably close to the middle of the envelope at day 6

Exactly. Bringing us back down to earth a bit lol 

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z at T144 compared with T150 on 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.44b350e770517de5e748dd1e05316e9b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.60c62833d8f653981c68a1bbccb74e49.jpg

Looks a weaker block, but that's not the end of the story because it may actually aid the next ridge to come, we will see...

It looks progressively further east,maybe we get the northerly sooner😜

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

18z a little less amplified than the 12z which was a little less amplified than the crazy 06z 

this run probably close to the middle of the envelope at day 6

And hopefully that's the least amplified it goes will be interesting viewing in the morning's runs.

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As long as we see heights continuing to reach Greenland and disrupt the westerly jet stream, with that vortex lobe to our north east then we will certainly have a shot at a decent northerly.

The issue with the UKMO is as much the trajectory of this pacific ridge pushing through Alaska, it seems to want to push through the Arctic towards Siberia, this would have serious consequences moving forward as suddenly your major tropospheric vortex piece is now oscillating directly to our north with a southerly tracking jet. Fine lines between something still cold or a 2013/2014 horror show with warmer maritime air mixing in to create lots of rain. Hopefully the UKMO will push this high towards Greenland on future runs.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Gfs painfully slow bring the cold in ecm better for the sametime 192hr.

ECM1-192.gif

gfs-0-186.png

I don't know about that booferking

they look pretty identical to me

850's.

gfsnh-1-192.thumb.png.ea8ab8320e09a0a2c43946e42e3f1852.pngECH0-192.thumb.gif.e1e244c51f3278cd1cfcde75e8b52149.gif

 

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Well the flimsy block on the 12z is now weaker again. We've seen this so many times before where the block isn't as strong once the charts move into the reliable....I just can't see a proper cold spell coming without proper blocking to our North. I'm not saying the 18z run had it right rather experience tells me all the days charts were actually not as promising as they first appeared.

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Looks ok to me 🤷🏻‍♂️

5A9F6E5C-AEB9-4D62-BEEF-9B8481A3C87F.png

7D78E972-94C6-4735-8BA8-FB3869085227.png

Edited by Tim Bland

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I don't think I'm on the same wavelength I'm struggling to see snow

GFS 18z for next Tuesday looks wet and cool . I aren't getting excited about that. 

It's more of a westerly flow next week isn't it.. 

As I say .

I'm sure someone will put me right if I'm wrong ..

19121009_0318.gif

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GFS very much a downgrade on the 12z

Struggles to draw in any decent uppers around D6-8

image.thumb.png.f328a491a7851a6a9c825aab0abdeaa8.png

image.thumb.png.512153ed1f5d9d766f7ba57d694d675c.png

 

Less amplified than the 12z by D9 (18z first)

image.thumb.png.fff48f11c18b463faf7e2a7e81f8eb58.png

image.thumb.png.824af09135cb8bfc4b0343bf64ed1025.png

 

Still some decent charts at times just a bit less potent really in my opinion. 

We do indeed get some decent uppers before D10 still

image.thumb.png.d05d56700be3473280f127c1b1b68997.png

Perhaps I'm sounding a tad too pessimistic 

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Working a night shift tonight....

GFS halfway to UKMO 😮

Maybe the other half @00z 

Edited by Steve Murr

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

Working a night shift tonight....

GFS halfway to UKMO 😮

Yes hopefully trends the other way in the morning.. Still gets there in the end... Twitchy twitchy time.. 

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