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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


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Seriously? I have been on this thread for ten years and with all due respect to @Glacier Point he has called it wrong many times. (As I’m sure he would admit) Please revert back to his posts from

Are we really writing-off the whole of December and January, on the basis of one post from one poster---or am I going stark raving mad?!

Evening All- Today is probably the first day that many will start to take notice of the ECM ( & of course the UKMO which dovetails nicely in together at 144 ) What we have here is a clea

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36 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

My recollection of ThatECMgate was that we had two out of three the big three promising us nNarnia and then the ECM joined the party!

 

After an evening's jubilation we woke up the next morning to find GFS, with the ECM and UKMO following closely, leading a hugely disappointing downgrade.

UKMO may well on board this time, but I will temper my excitement until Knocker is on board. I have too many scars already!

 

 

Well, as Michael Scott once put it, "I'm ready to be hurt again"... ?

Of course we know from our previous experiences that nothing is ever set in stone, but we can only assess what is in front of us.  And that is broad support for an evolution, at a relatively close timeframe, which leads to some stonking charts.

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14 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Everyone else got that tingling feeling? ? We know that 19 / 20 it doesn't come to pass but at least the anticipation is fun.

ECM very potent from Thursday.

Oooh, yes @West is Best that feeling of walking in to a casino, options open, will it happen? At the start of winter... That's what most of us are here for....and today's model runs bring that snowy jackpot closer. Re the models, we just need the UKMO onside tomorrow, and it does have to be 0z - the difference at or before T120, so this must be resolved tomorrow!  and assuming that the UKMO gives ground, then it is more a question of who gets lucky regionally, so much more mileage in this and it is only the first week of winter....

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8 minutes ago, The Real Snowman said:

we will be very, very busy in here! 

Well with over 240 people watching this thread earlier and 170+ now it's fair to say its already busy ?

Here's the 850hpa upper air temperatures for the next 10 days according to the 12z GFS.. Milder interludes especially earlier on then a more consistent cold pattern shown.. 

tycrNDPhkx.thumb.gif.e2ae3e1b1f942d0a49f819d0182caa0a.gif

Precipitation forecast for the same period. 

1kOSXnFC3o.thumb.gif.c2aa7b73d774c394ac945cb542b34deb.gif

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3 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

 

Well with over 240 people watching this thread earlier and 170+ now it's fair to say its already busy ?

Here's the 850hpa upper air temperatures for the next 10 days according to the 12z GFS.. Milder interludes especially earlier on then a more consistent cold pattern shown.. 

tycrNDPhkx.thumb.gif.e2ae3e1b1f942d0a49f819d0182caa0a.gif

Precipitation forecast for the same period. 

1kOSXnFC3o.thumb.gif.c2aa7b73d774c394ac945cb542b34deb.gif

Hahahaha very true! 

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16 minutes ago, The Real Snowman said:

Agreed. The UKMO will hopefully smell the coffee and get us even more excited. If it does and the evolution is maintained broadly across the models we will be very, very busy in here! Ladies and gentlemen I suggest fresh pants, sandwiches and copious amounts of hot tea. Oh and no one tell anyone until we get beyond T120. This is what this thread was made for! We are really on the hunt!!❄️☃️?

Yes, next step is to get the UKMO on board and then wait for it to come into the 72 hour time frame!

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Supposed to post Sunday(fell asleep)but always looked a key point

hgt300-1.thumb.png.8f3ff51dc8a4b3777cdde02b527b4468.png

Too Tight the Isobars so breaks. ??hgt300-2.thumb.png.80ea935a7ee534d6072298a2f00a237d.pngCreates Iceland/Greenland heights.prmslReyjavic.thumb.png.517cef22d698459f54281e1d8a79e982.png

 

Note the heights on eastern seaboard pushing, creating the slide. 

ecmt850_216.thumb.png.a35450c6cd2abb0ff654a4e63fa4a1b0.png

Off a cliff.

tmp.0.303631137448491.thumb.png.98cd8918462e5173141a201f448e747c.png

20191111_210651.jpg.7e94bbf950b3a5b5092f6d586a3fe8ca.jpg

All Sunday charts even Sydney??????????

Edited by icykev
Wrong image
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36 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Everyone else got that tingling feeling? ? We know that 19 / 20 it doesn't come to pass but at least the anticipation is fun.

ECM very potent from Thursday.

I get a tingle everyday and yes nothing comes to pass.thst said the anticipation is there !!!

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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

I get a tingle everyday and yes nothing comes to pass.thst said the anticipation is there !!!

I've always said 'The anticipation is so much better than the it not happening'!  Although I've not applied it to weather before... ?

Edited by Mike Poole
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The beeb are certainly on board with their weekly forecast mentioning it turning 'quite wintry with snow' Though imo their forecast isn't quite as reliable as when they used the Met Office.

As for the models this cold spell has come out of the blue a little bit. Exciting times and at complete odds with most of the long range forecasts!! Of course time will tell if these charts move into the reliable 

 

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ICON 18z T120 v 12z T126:

image.thumb.jpg.fdd073b4a1696048dfab69ae998c9a06.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3044663e4ffe58d602390fe6b932df1b.jpg

Marginal upgrade re amplification but probably in the noise given levels of uncertainty, certainly no downgrade...GFS incoming...

Edited by Mike Poole
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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z T120 v 12z T126:

 

Marginal upgrade re amplification but probably in the noise give levels of uncertainty, certainly no downgrade...GFS incoming...

Yes - here is the chart though.

image.thumb.png.68e42388e584f873035875ab52114bcc.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well a (mostly) great set of 12z's, but the GFS run from 192 to deepest FI was quite astonishing and would bring significant snow pretty much anywhere across the UK over a 6/7 period.  However, most have us have been here long enough to recognise the upgrade/downgrade nature of the models at this time of year, and it could well be that this GFS run will prove to be the high water mark for this upcoming cold spell.  But, hope springs eternal and all that, *IF* the pattern did establish, it could well be a rinse and repeat scenario lasting well into December. 

There does seem to be something different about this winter, just looking at the early extreme snowfalls in the US and Scandinavia on the 'Snow and Ice' thread.  It may all come to nothing, but given it's just the 3rd December, we're in a very good place IMO.

Anyway, onto the 18z and fingers crossed it will keep the trend going!?

Yes I kind of think along the same lines of repeated pattens etc, it could well be quite a memorable winter but I certainly don’t want to be rushing the winter off before it’s started so once we get to next week let’s not look for the end straight away lol. Big question is will it all countdown like clockwork without the spoilers and will ukmo be on the same page come tomorrow.

right ready for yet another gfs run ?

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The Southerly meandering jet propensity continues. No surprise whatsoever with the current output.

EP ridge has been gaining traction in recent days and is more than just a bit part player.

Clearly the UKMO not as good as the others but I agree with BFTP, not necessarily a killer to the potential fun and games around mid month.

I think this could be a great start to the skiing season for parts of the Alps...

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