Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Identical to Feb 1996

2 for the price of one on this run - imagine 2 x Feb 5th 96's followed by a Feb 91 shortly after - BOOM!

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Identical to Feb 1996

Is this GFS Steve your commenting on ???

[Tim Bland]

A white new year for most

 

Edited December 16, 2019 by Tim Bland

[ICE COLD]

So close to the brutal cold on this run . Loads of time for upgrades lol . 

[damianslaw]

10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes we really could do with the ridge being West of the UK but of course this initial ridge was initially modelled to be stronger and further West so let's hope it happens and there is less Atlantic forcing as currently modelled.

Nice to have something possibly developing in the output again.

The key timeframe is 144 hrs, just outside the reliable, if the trend of UKMO and GFS 18z is shown within the 96-120 hr timeframe in consecutive next runs, then the ridge building through europe more likely to be off the table, and instead ridge development to the west more likely as we crucially see the trough on a more easterly tracjectory and most importantly elongating - west-east, rather than north-south as shown by much output today including ECM. The change in position will enable heights to lower into europe and this is the key trigger.

 

[Scandinavian High.]

Very nice to see Eastern Europe going in to freezer after such a mild start to winter and also the UK joining in with the cold is this Building blocks For winter proper now...

[feb1991blizzard]

Apart from SW Britain and Northern Ireland, the entire country covered in snow. although gut wrenching for Irish snow fans both North and South - a complete blank - a dream for SCotland though.

[Mapantz]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

although gut wrenching for Irish snow fans both North and South - a complete blank

I wouldn't call it gut wrenching at 16 days to be honest..

[Snowman.]

12z GEFS   18z 

 

 vs 

 

Not bad

 

Much more of a wedge up north showing on the 18z leading to lower heights into europe.

[SMU]

Many GFS solutions at the extreme end of the UKMO scenario - with a higher counter balance of Pressure over Iceland than expected at just 168

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I wouldn't call it gut wrenching at 16 days to be honest..

I am talking if it came off of course! 

[booferking]

Few ens sniffing the wedge out before xmas.

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A white new year for most

 

Exactly how many members are plotting......so I’d personally reckon a lot of raw/operational interpretation coming through the suites from here on. Again the turn of the year looking very ripe via exactions,,,

 

[fromey]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Apart from SW Britain and Northern Ireland, the entire country covered in snow. although gut wrenching for Irish snow fans both North and South - a complete blank - a dream for SCotland though.

Standard “ north of the M4!!”

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, fromey said:

Standard “ north of the M4!!”

Still better than usual - its usually the M62 thats the dividing line!

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Many GFS solutions at the extreme end of the UKMO scenario - with a higher counter balance of Pressure over Iceland than expected at just 168

 

Yes ridge development further south towards Iceland results in a change in the alignment of the trough so it become more stretched and west-east positioned and enables low heights to drop into europe aided by a forcing on the jet further south - it is subtle changes in the position of heights that can make a difference - the 'wedge' playing its hand.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

After 12z GEFS suite, i would have said you would be stark raving bonkers if you thought the 18z would have been another upgrade - but can it???

Edited December 16, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[snowray]

And would you believe that the control run is actually running with the operational.

Edited December 16, 2019 by snowray

[SMU]

UKMO V control run > Then control at 216

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

After 12z GEFS suite, i would have said you would be stark raving bonkers if you thought the 18z would have been another upgrade - but can it???

About half go for a wedge of some kind. About 5-6 hold promise.

Control is just straigh dirty however, really would view it in Incognito mode. 

[Purga]

Early ENS trending down and more members supporting the Op

 

The Control run is none too shabby...

Good sign when the Op & the Control run evolve along the same lines

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO V control run > Then control at 216

Control looks a tad on the warm side not..

[Paul_1978]

34 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Huge cold pool building to the East and heavy frontal snow across the entire country.

You forgot to mention it’s 348 hours away. 

[feb1991blizzard]

A few cold members to go with the op and control - respectable set if you are looking for cold without being extreme.

 

[Don]

33 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A white new year for most

That bloody M4 corridor!! 

EDIT:  Beaten to it!

Edited December 16, 2019 by Don