Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[jules216]

57 minutes ago, Catacol said:

JMA monthly is interesting for weeks 3 and 4. Trough maintained over SE Europe and high anomaly to the north. 850s to the NE below average. Hmmm. Slightly surprised to see this but matches GP’s take on January. Something simmering?

One thing is for sure - nothing in the least simple about the prognosis at the moment. Compelling...

@Catacol I swear to god if this is not going to mean any meaningful cool down for me in Slovakia then I will throw the PC out of the window

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Don said:

A white New Year would be great and would also take the pain out of going back to work after the festive period! 

good old days '97 last one here! tha days!

[Don]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

good old days '97 last one here! tha days!

After lots of excitement, that delivered diddly squat IMBY!  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Don said:

After lots of excitement, that delivered diddly squat IMBY!  

great times! snowed all day, and a few days before too

[SLEETY]

Some great looking ensembles tonight,something maybe brewing ,surely the Chinese can't be correct,I wil take more interest in their model if this comes off

[SMU]

Afternoon All 

Well this short- mid term pattern could have been so much better however the initial ridge ability to being able to get negative tilted is going to be impeded by this shortwave - Thats a real shame as the flow coming SW out of Svalbard was very favourable if the alignment had have been more towards iceland

That said the ridge does hold on ( depicted by the UKMO & ICON forcing lows into Europe whilst trying to build over the top.

We will of course now need the support of another atlantic ridge to couple with the weak heights. Which is certainly a possibility - maybe just outside the xmas day window-

If we look at Norwich ( where you could have a punt ) the best ENS is -6.2c which may just be enough.

Personally I dont by GPs notion that there wont be any cold in Europe to tap into - Experience ( over teleconnections ) suggests that once you get weak heights diverting the jet towards western Norway ( svalbard sort of area ) then Northern & NW Europe usually becomes cold very quickly.

- Also just reference that London has 7 members with the -10 isotherm the highest this winter so far.

All to play for over the festive period > So glad I was persistent on that ridge as the GFS just blew it away & the UKMO was spot on bar the shortwave that they all missed....

 

 

[SMU]

Just now, SLEETY said:

Some great looking ensembles tonight,something maybe brewing ,surely the Chinese can't be correct,I wil take more interest in their model if this comes off

Its german.

[SLEETY]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its german.

No it's the Beijing climate centre 

[Catacol]

55 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

and add cfs week 3 to that ..

However, before champagne corks start popping, interpretation of this z500 pattern requires strong health warming in translating to T850 and T2:

1) no source of deep cold across Europe and temperatures likely to be well above average prior to this;

2) trough access likely to favour milder Atlantic air mass across much of western Europe, including the UK. 

Bottom line - looks good, and something to draw interest but from my perspective, nothing to see here suggesting cold nirvana in the next few weeks.

 

Though out in la-la land on New Year’s Eve the GEFS sees a cooling Europe...

[MR EXTREMES]

30 minutes ago, jules216 said:

@Catacol I swear to god if this is not going to mean any meaningful cool down for me in Slovakia then I will throw the PC out of the window

Oh definitely cold to come in your town judging by them charts. 

[Ali1977]

Whilst we wait for the ECMs exciting end I’d thought I’d post GFS ENS Pressure charts for Iceland and Oslo. Both show the pressure rising with the obvious outliers,  but without doubt the pressure rises on all till around 27/28, then the signal goes haywire!! The pressure rise to our NE looks to have slightly better grouping!! 

Edited December 16, 2019 by Ali1977

[SMU]

42 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

No it's the Beijing climate centre 

Thought you meant ICON

[swfc]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Whilst we wait for the ECMs exciting end I’d thought I’d post GFS ENS Pressure charts for Iceland and Oslo. Both show the pressure rising with the obvious outliers,  but without doubt the pressure rises on all till around 27/28, then the signal goes haywire!! The pressure rise to our NE looks to have slightly better grouping!! 

exciting end ali??? has it been extended,tia

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

exciting end ali??? has it been extended,tia

Was thinking Xmas day but I get what you mean.

ECM at 192 similar to P18, look how that changed by day 12.

ECM

P18

Edited December 16, 2019 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

Well this could easily end up like the colder GFS ENS could it not!! Better than last nights runs anyway!!

[mb018538]

If the ECM is anything to go by, we will all be singing that lesser known bing Crosby classic.....I’m dreaming of a mild Xmas....

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Though out in la-la land on New Year’s Eve the GEFS sees a cooling Europe...

looks a tad chilly where i am..that chart pretty much sums up the year as a whole for my location

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Don said:

After lots of excitement, that delivered diddly squat IMBY!  

Led to a very blocked month in all, a gradual waning of cold and interest.

To be honest, despite his constant harping on about the 'good old days' only NYD 1997 and 1995 looks interesting from a synoptic perspective, the rest were full on autumnal Atlantic mode!

 

 

[Mr Frost]

Snow on Northern higher hills/mountains for Christmas on the latest ECM charts below?

Midnight Christmas Eve:

Midday Christmas Eve:

 

Midnight Christmas Day:

 

Midday Christmas Day:

 

Who knows...will probably look different tomorrow. 

In the meantime the fourth day in a row of heavy snow above 350 meters here - proper white snowy wonderland. (Great wee cold spell for the hills/mountains around these parts)

Have a good night everyone!

Edited December 16, 2019 by Mr Frost

[snowray]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

good old days '97 last one here! tha days!

I was in Trafalgar Square that New Years, good old days before you had to have tickets to get into the pubs, fine snow all night night long and freezing cold. 

 

ECM is doing my head in, just getting worse and worse.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, snowray said:

I was in Trafalgar Square that New Years, good old days before you had to have tickets to get into the pubs, fine snow all night night long and freezing cold. 

 

 

 

 

shame all changed 22 years on, I mean a January E'ly, what's that? under 21's won't know what a winter is living here

[snowray]

35 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

shame all changed 22 years on, I mean a January E'ly, what's that? under 21's won't know what a winter is living here

How true, and the year before, Steve M might remember big snow on boxing day that effected Erith and Barnehurst, very localized stuff, huge flakes that gave several cm's of snow, even in Greenwich there was heavy snow. Then in Feb 96 I was driving a friend down to Gravesend all the time and it was always snowing, freezing cold easterly, mad times...then it just stopped around 97. 

GFS ensembles looking a lot better, but can they produce the goods, it seems to be getting harder and harder in a winter month, I mean what's gone wrong with January these days, are we really going to have to make do with more of the same old drip, drip, drip stuff in late Feb and March again? 

Edited December 16, 2019 by snowray

[swfc]

26 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

shame all changed 22 years on, I mean a January E'ly, what's that? under 21's won't know what a winter is living here

for me 78-79.80-81 for me.yes some decent ens today but that's where they generally stay these days

[Stuie]

37 minutes ago, snowray said:

I was in Trafalgar Square that New Years, good old days before you had to have tickets to get into the pubs, fine snow all night night long and freezing cold. 

 

ECM is doing my head in, just getting worse and worse.

Well, tbh,I quite like where the bulk of the vortex is, Canada it isn`t. Yep some straw clutching but there is interest there.

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Well, tbh,I quite like where the bulk of the vortex is, Canada it isn`t. Yep some straw clutching but there is interest there.

Erm..You sure?