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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Siberian high Alert at end of the Icon

 

Maybe the Chinese model of a huge Siberian high isn't far away from being correct,time to hunt the sledge !

iconeu-0-180.png

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Siberian high Alert at end of the Icon

 

Maybe the Chinese model of a huge Siberian high isn't far away,time to hunt the sledge !

Indeed..Great start to this afternoon's set of runs, now let's see what the rest of the models produce.

 image.thumb.png.0d8aa97934c84f361d58f83f7537815b.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast

Finally EC is getting some grip on the MJO and I think the amplitude for week 2 will be bigger than what the average shows because it still hasn't figured the sector out completely 

Screenshot_20191216-172158_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Up to T+180, and there's still an 'elephant in the room':h850t850eu.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Ukmo 144 chart,not without interest I would have thought ? and GFS doing what it normally does when it doesn't have a clue,blow up a dartboard low in the Atlantic,never seen that before!

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

UKMO vs GFS at 144, much prefer the 144 and its colder flow

3B418F21-F378-4287-9420-F7CB0B66913A.gif

F6E58401-46BE-48AF-8512-0705E42F3471.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO vs GFS at 144, much prefer the 144 and its colder flow

3B418F21-F378-4287-9420-F7CB0B66913A.gif

F6E58401-46BE-48AF-8512-0705E42F3471.png

850s on both about same tbh

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Around half of the eps solutions have a strong surface blocking high in our part of the NH by the back end of week 2 .... pin the tail on the donkey for where it’s centred ...

This would lend support to that idea, in fact more than half:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019121600_360.

Another takeaway - fair agreement on a slackening of from the deep Atlantic trough as we enter new year, at last.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ICON with a strong Scandi ridge building at 120, while the other models seem to have moved away from and undercut, UKMO a little improved again this afternoon though while GFS pretty much has everything over the top. 

 

iconnh-0-120.png?16-12UN120-21.GIF?16-18gfsnh-0-120.png?12

ECM Op hasn't been encouraging lately, maybe it will be better this evening?

It is looking very difficult to get cold across the UK for Christmas but still a little something there for the eternal optimist.

However ensembles are showing that if nothing turns up then at least the next chase may well develop shortly after Christmas.

Let's see if ECM can give us something to get our teeth into or if not the ensembles begin to gather more toward cold after Christmas.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

But just when you thought there was no cold on the horizon, up steps out of nowhere an unbelievable set of GEFS with a ridge being thrown up to the North of the UK.

image.thumb.png.ca0c7ddf989c0a44666ebfbf5f5e70b7.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But just when you thought there was no cold on the horizon, up steps out of nowhere an unbelievable set of GEFS with a ridge being thrown up to the North of the UK.

image.thumb.png.ca0c7ddf989c0a44666ebfbf5f5e70b7.png

It’s great isn’t it, this could well gather pace too. Sometimes in a flip of pattern that pattern creeps forward a day or so too. 28/29th looking like a good starting point.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM lining up a big northerly just after xmas ...

B19F05AB-7781-4696-AA8B-DC77502C497B.png

That’s the Xmas spirit, it would be great to have Xmas with a cold spell lined up , even if no white Xmas. If ECM follows that I’d be buzzing. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
57 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Not so sure about a white Xmas... But anyone up for a white New Year!!! Some interesting ens from the GFS 6Z bringing some cold to our shores, and other showing a serious build of cold to our NE! let the chase begin... Yes it's along way off... But don't we just love a good cold chase on here... That's where the excitement Truelly lies....

 

A white New Year would be great and would also take the pain out of going back to work after the festive period! 

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