Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[mb018538]

GFS wants to destroy the south of England just after Xmas:

[SLEETY]

incoming easterly now at the end of fl I’m sure it will verify ,it’s our christmas present from gfs 

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

incoming easterly now at the end of fl I’m sure it will verify ,it’s our christmas present from gfs 

Yes sleety,wedges make sledges appdeep fi sends -40 850s towards ESB

Edited December 15, 2019 by swfc

[knocker]

Well you sure as hell don't want this Xmas present

 

[Dennis]

here comes the blocking.....

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Dennis said:

here comes the blocking.....

I'm guessing that gambling is not allowed here? 

OK, I'd probably lose my money...  

That does indeed look interesting, but what chance it will verify? 

 

[Dennis]

6 minutes ago, Griff said:

I'm guessing that gambling is not allowed here? 

OK, I'd probably lose my money...  

That does indeed look interesting, but what chance it will verify? 

 

the chance grows by the day - last week/ days of the year 

Edited December 15, 2019 by Dennis

[snowray]

A little light at the end of the tunnel there, Scandi high forming, similar to what some of the ensemble members have been showing in the last 24hrs....all is not lost .

[Methuselah]

At last...a wee bit of hope, at the end of the rainbow? Get the cold in first, and hope and pray that some of it blows in this direction!

    

[Nick F]

One thing's for sure, with low pressure close by for much of the run, going to be a lot more rain to come up to the New Year 

Whether or not we get on the right side of these lows to get in some deep cold, with a better lowland snow potential, remains to be seen and is well out of reach for now, particularly given there is a west-based -NAO developing now

Want the -NAO to become more east-based

Good news is the QBO has turned easterly 

Edited December 15, 2019 by Nick F

[Ali1977]

Control has a crazy hp right on us in FI

 

As do many others, finally a change in sight???

 

Edited December 15, 2019 by Ali1977

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Control has a crazy hp right on us in FI

Great chart,praise the lord dry weather hopefully

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Great chart,praise the lord dry weather hopefully

Dry and frosty hopefully, here is the best circular Greeny high I’ve seen on the ENS for a while - cherry picked but a nice example even though only cold for Scotland I’d say!!

 

P2 better for cold.

Edited December 15, 2019 by Ali1977

[MP-R]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Control has a crazy hp right on us in FI

 

As do many others, finally a change in sight???

Bank! Wouldn't be too dissimilar to the start of January last year which also featured a strong anticyclone overhead during the first week (indeed I recorded my highest ever pressure reading). Anything to start some sort of drying out process...

Not that the CFS should be given much attention, but quite a few more recent runs have hinted at high pressure to close the month and start January - no consensus on where, other than close to the UK.

[SnowBlake]

Good afternoon all!

First post of this winter for me.

Been interesting to read the past 3 or 4 weeks - a little tease here and there for the 7-10+ day periods but nothing coming to within a confident range.

Good to see some charts now indicating what we would prefer to see happen, and for cold to arrive in the way it would bring a better chance of prolonged cold with possible wintriness rather than transient local rubbish, albeit still for 10+ away.

I shall be in Latvia (Riga) next Sat and Sun before heading 150km East until the new year. Had several inches of snow both past 2 Christmases, but although there has been some light snow on and off the past few days, nothing too promising just yet.

Where it has snowed, GEM has been most accurated with the precip type charts, and in general. Showing light precip for when it actually has rained or snowed even lightly compared to GFS showing nothing at all.

Fingers crossed for snow here so long as there is some when I come back, even a couple of centimetres... but not at Gatwick as it will probably shut down.

[SLEETY]

Not bad ECM ,but just too much energy in the Atlantic for anything but a couple of cold days over Xmas before low pressure pushes through again.

Until that changes ,a prolonged cold spell is off the cards at the moment.

[Weathizard]

Poor ECM for the longer term, way too much energy in the Atlantic. Not too much credence but in a 240 chart but would have been nice to see the trend from this mornings run continue. Some nasty lows around on both the GFS and ECM

[SLEETY]

Maybe all this Atlantic energy will blow itself out by the end of the month,and allow high pressure from the Arctic to control our weather.

But knowing our luck it will be high pressure from the Azores taking control

[sebastiaan1973]

Quite remarkable charts. With lowest pressure around 990 hPa. Which is in this time of the year not often seen.

[swfc]

So EC joins the rank squad of 12z today.no wedges or sledges today.think GFS given its slayings wasn't and isn't far off its projections.guess the lemmings are safe until the new year.im of the opinion the new year will bring a change to hopefully drier weather with hopefully something more seasonal.if I'm wrong il be the first to jump off a cliffe but in the meen time enjoy the hunt and whatever the weather brings.btw where's Steve murr???

Edited December 15, 2019 by swfc

[northwestsnow]

EC 00z becomes a distant memory this evening..

I can't even be bothered posting it, its just more rain, and more rain.

Flooding is going to be in the headlines soon unless this disgusting weather relents.

[snowray]

10 minutes ago, swfc said:

So EC joins the rank squad of 12z today.no wedges or sledges today.think GFS given its slayings wasn't and isn't far off its projections.guess the lemmings are safe until the new year.im of the opinion the new year will bring a change to hopefully drier weather with hopefully something more seasonal.if I'm wrong il be the first to jump off a cliffe but in the meen time enjoy the hunt and whatever the weather brings.btw where's Steve murr???

I was thinking the same thing, no Steve M posts.....so that's it then I guess?!

[carinthian]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 00z becomes a distant memory this evening..

I can't even be bothered posting it, its just more rain, and more rain.

Flooding is going to be in the headlines soon unless this disgusting weather relents.

Watching from a distance, its been incredible the amount of lows running through the British Isles these past few months. Its relentless and no let up looking at this evenings models. That post Christmas Storm shown on the latest GFS is something. Would not like to be in the English Channel. Could all change again in a couple of days, hopefully ! Think it must be very soggy in many parts of Blighty.

C

[Froze were the Days]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 00z becomes a distant memory this evening..

I can't even be bothered posting it, its just more rain, and more rain.

Flooding is going to be in the headlines soon unless this disgusting weather relents.

Really depressing stuff, wherever you look there's cyclogenesis in the Atlantic - tip of Greenland or more mobile from off the East Coast of the States or as in the latest latter stages of this ECM run somewhat further south nearer the Azores. Also lost count the times I've seen an ECM run which could produce a northerly of sorts but a smaller feature develops to the north west as per 168z...

Edited December 15, 2019 by Froze were the Days

[SLEETY]

Not unusual for December to be mild  in Europe ,can be the percusser for bitterly cold weather to follow,models might be showing that soon.

I'm not including UK in that,to get deep cold in winter here  it seems you have more chance to win the lottery than seeing the purples heading our way,lol