Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[booferking]

Worth remembering gfs picked up a northerly 3/4 days ago only to drop it but then for ecm to show it's hand now gfs back in the game to ho ho ho.

[SLEETY]

yay gfs going for a colder xmas now,so much volatility in the model output at the moment,it’s hard to know where fl begins!

[IDO]

GFS 06z still going with the Christmas topple which could bring a seasonal tone to Northern areas:

Transitory but nice to see. Timing may vary as we get closer and hopefully we get upstream help to slow and build that ridge.

[SLEETY]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

GFS 06z still going with the Christmas topple which could bring a seasonal tone to Northern areas:

Transitory but nice to see. Timing may vary as we get closer and hopefully we get upstream help to slow and build that ridge.

Too much mobility at the moment  for a prolonged cold spell though,maybe a change in the New Year?

[IDO]

...the same old story in FI FWIW:

Monster Russian High, a massive anomaly and until that shoves east it is tough for anything but passing UK cold.

edit...as Sleety says above.

Edited December 15, 2019 by IDO

[IDO]

Amazing euro temp anomaly for late December in FI:

With this profile getting cold into the east will take time so a cold easterly will remain elusive until NH reset.

[E17boy]

Morning peeps

Hope all are well, a sunny start to the day here in Walthamstow although there is a nip in the air.

So some sorts of NW or N is showing for the festive period but will this pattern pan out like this nearer to the time. With due respect to everyone I know at the moment anything showing better than the bleak pattern we are and have been stuck in gets the eye brows lifted. However Christmas day is still 10 Days away and the way our pattern is changing forecasting two days ahead seems a struggle at the moment. The models are all over the place and I think it will stay like this for the coming days. So my thoughts are Christmas Day is too far away yet to make any confidential forcast I am sure there will be many changes before we get there. 

As mentioned yesterday we do need some breakthrough  here, and one of the things that is imported I think is the temperatures to our east and north. Once we see these temperatures dropping fast then maybe tapping into something from that direction will be a worthwhile wait ( on the assumptions that all the blocks fall into place). It's a patience game for now. 

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND GOES ON

fingers crossed

wishing you all a great Sunday

all the best regards

[snowblizzard]

24 minutes ago, IDO said:

Amazing euro temp anomaly for late December in FI:

With this profile getting cold into the east will take time so a cold easterly will remain elusive until NH reset.

Christmas thaw in the Alps?

[mb018538]

Just a word of warning, the ecm 00z is an outlier:

looks lovely though...let’s hope it’s sniffed something out, unlikely as it may be.

[Methuselah]

Och well, small chances of a pattern-change sometime in the New Year, perhaps...But only eighteen hours remain, for the much-advertised 'front-loaded winter' scenario to materialise...? And, by golly, it'll need to be a severe 18 hours!

    

It's a funny old game, football?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

26 minutes ago, IDO said:

Amazing euro temp anomaly for late December in FI:

With this profile getting cold into the east will take time so a cold easterly will remain elusive until NH reset.

Yet on 31st we see this advancing SW....3 days later...not much time

 

BFTP

 

 

[IDO]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Just a word of warning, the ecm 00z is an outlier:

looks lovely though...let’s hope it’s sniffed something out, unlikely as it may be.

Yes, shock, a D10 ECM outlier!

I have stopped being equivocal about the ECM op run post-D8 as they still are trotted out despite their lack of verification. Maybe the 0z will be the chart that proves the rule?

Edited December 15, 2019 by IDO

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Och well, small chances of a pattern-change sometime in the New Year, perhaps...But only eighteen hours remain, for the much-advertised 'front-loaded winter' scenario to materialise...? And, by golly, it'll need to be a severe 18 hours!

    

It's a funny old game, football?

Just wait until Jan and Feb.....we’ll see if the much vaunted hoped for 2nd half pattern change happens   It’s now reminding me of winter 08/09

 

BFTP

Edited December 15, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Och well, small chances of a pattern-change sometime in the New Year, perhaps...But only eighteen hours remain, for the much-advertised 'front-loaded winter' scenario to materialise...? And, by golly, it'll need to be a severe 18 hours!

    

It's a funny old game, football?

This was never going to be front loaded with a neutral ENSO on the nino side and the -QBO not fully downwelling until the second half - always back loaded to me - See GP's and others forecasts.

[January Snowstorm]

Have no doubt Christmas day is still up in the air on whether it'll be cold or not. A big swing this morning  (the first day really that the charts move into the semi reliable ie 10 days ). After days of showing us a mild Christmas both gfs and ecm show something colder!! Hopefully this new trend will build over the next 48hours

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yet on 31st we see this advancing SW....3 days later...not much time

 

BFTP

 

 

...there will of course be the ebb and flow, but in a winter where you have 5-7 day repeating periods of euro warmth and a Russian high, we are narrowing the net opportunity of UK cold.

Of course, we still have Jan-Mar and plenty of time for wintry weather, assuming the current pattern is not entrenched.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Just wait until Jan and Feb.....we’ll see if the much vaunted hoped for 2nd half pattern change happens

 

BFTP

It might not - but that is our best hope.

[Kentspur]

48 minutes ago, IDO said:

GFS 06z still going with the Christmas topple which could bring a seasonal tone to Northern areas:

Transitory but nice to see. Timing may vary as we get closer and hopefully we get upstream help to slow and build that ridge.

The NASA model agrees

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This was never going to be front loaded with a neutral ENSO on the nino side and the -QBO not fully downwelling until the second half - always back loaded to me - See GP's and others forecasts.

You know that, and I know that...FWIW, I think the second half of Feb into March could be much better? But, it's still mostly guesswork...given the number of other variables that are 'out there'...

There are good reasons for why I'm not a millionaire!

[Tim Bland]

11 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Christmas thaw in the Alps?

Looks ok to me.  Huge falls in last 7 days and this is the forecast for the run up to Christmas; 

[feb1991blizzard]

16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You know that, and I know that...FWIW, I think the second half of Feb into March could be much better? But, it's still mostly guesswork...given the number of other variables that are 'out there'...

There are good reasons for why I'm not a millionaire!

Yes - like i say -an SSW seems likely at some point but could be too late to satisfy most on here and can see that always irritates a lot of people who prefer heat once winter ends, particularly people in the SE (wrongly IMO as 2018 proved).

[Frosty.]

Winter just wouldn't be Winter without at least some cold air from the north so I dearly hope the Ecm 0z operational has this nailed...in which case I would definitely buy this for a dollar!!!! $

 

Edited December 15, 2019 by JON SNOW

[russell k]

53 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks ok to me.  Huge falls in last 7 days and this is the forecast for the run up to Christmas; 

The French Meteo model shows rain@ 1100m suggest this is for a higher altitude

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It might not - but that is our best hope.

It might be Feb, a cold Xmas week and NYE would be nice....pM air often doesn’t bring the goods...and unfortunately it hasn’t this time thus far and this could be the best we get ...some mention GP but I’m sure he’s angling for at least a very mild Jan?  Not gospel but I’m sure I read that he is.

 

BFTP

Edited December 15, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Catacol]

4 hours ago, IDO said:

Although the finer details at D10 on the models are askew, the overall long-wave pattern and the potential drivers, or lack-off are the defining conclusions. The main feature absent are static waves so a mobile pattern, just the speed to unravel. 

The ECM gives us a transient wedge around Xmas so a transient colder flow. The GEM more of a mini-ridge and the GFS gives us a topple wave:

Pretty average fare and the Russian high, winter killer 2019, remains omnipresent. No Pacific forcing, no Arctic high and although the NH profile is trough'y it is de-facto a flattening pattern. 

It is a case, as it has for a few days now, to await a pattern change, as this current underlying state serves the UK little in Winter cheer. Lets get Winter going!

Not really sure what most of this means. Can’t ever remember seeing a static NH wave pattern, Russian High isn’t automatically a winter killer because it implies upstream troughing, and we certainly aren’t in a period of zero Pacific forcing. The Pacific is certainly hard to read at the moment, hence the jumble of options on the medium range table, but the forcing is present which is why we have a signal for returning heights. “de-facto a flattening pattern” ? Don’t see that either. Models can’t get a grip on the unusual convection profile, but some degree of progression now likely

The pattern won’t be flat in the last third of the month, but it is no easier today to work out where heights may emerge. RMM plots of the MJO are all over the place, and forecasts both for the UK and upstream in the US are changing on an almost daily basis. Wave 2 forcing is imminent 

but thus far of modest magnitude. SSTs retain an interesting degree of support for northern heights under a southerly tracking jet

 

And the CPC sees anomalous ridging potential to the north with the Atlantic trough hitting the buffers to some degree

Where does this leave surface conditions over the UK in the Xmas/New Year period? I’d still genuinely say it is wide open with multiple scenarios possible. A week of topsy turvy NWP output is the only certainty right now.

 

Edited December 15, 2019 by Catacol