Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, sorepaw1 said:

Maybe just maybe some snow for Christmas day 00z GFS T+240hr.

Even if we don't get snow it should be cold and frosty xmas morning. 

Nail biting times.

Might have a fiver at the bookies this year.

looks more wet than frosty to me? south anyway

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks more wet than frosty to me? south anyway

Xmas eve would be frosty for many I think going off the ECM.

Edited December 15, 2019 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

You’d take that for Xmas day for sure, frost and cold enough for snow for many .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Xmas eve would be frosty for many I think going off the ECM.

Aye, EC, not GFS though

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM shows things improving just before Christmas with low pressure moving away and introducing a colder north westerly flow which is cold enough for showers to be wintry in nature. 
I hope it’s right, the others would probably require another letter to Santa asking for a boat, seeing a train of low pressure systems running straight through the U.K. is never a good thing.

[That ECM]

We have a difference of opinion here

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

We have a difference of opinion here

You’d have to go against the ECM as the METO aren’t backing it looking at their wording, hopefully they’re wrong obviously

Edited December 15, 2019 by Ali1977

[MR EXTREMES]

there are opportunities for cold massive vortex segment and cold air to our northeast eventually.

jma

 

Edited December 15, 2019 by MR EXTREMES

[northwestsnow]

EC offers a ray of hope for christmas!!

Likely very cold by the big day..

[That ECM]

25 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

You’d have to go against the ECM as the METO aren’t backing it looking at their wording, hopefully they’re wrong obviously

A change, if there is to be one, could be between Christmas and the NY. Ecm maybe a bit quick in showing a change. I never worry too much about longer term wording especially if it contains the words “low confidence”. They can’t really write “ sorry we haven’t got a scooby” 

I would like to see gfs and ecm showing more output that hinted and showed a change in future runs. We will see.

 

 

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Fantastic ECM this morning for the 24th and 25th if you like festive weather at Christmas! Cold and frosty with a risk of snow showers for a few.

Just for fun at this range - really hope it is correct! 
Santa Claus and many on here would be happy with a festive/seasonal Christmas. 

Christmas Eve:

Christmas Day:

 

Pretty dark here at the moment but I can make out a thick snowy Winter coat over the hills/mountains in the distance. (Snow line roughly 350 meters)
 

Have a great Sunday everyone!

[shaky]

Snow chances still in for central england on tuesday?

[Jordan S]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Snow chances still in for central england on tuesday?

Very small chance but looking more towards rain if this does push northnorthwest into England during Monday night into Tuesday. 

[Sky Full]

There is a surprising degree of divergence between the main models over the next ten days...

             .....................    +144hr:  .........................     .....................+240hrs:  ..........................

UKMO.              

ECM        

GFS.        

GEM        

They don't agree at 144h and by 240h there is no similarity other than perhaps a vague agreement on a southerly Azores high pressure.  I can only deduce from this that none of them can be relied on to provide an accurate forecast for 10 days time and in fact they might, and probably are, all wrong at that distance.   Given the volatility of the northern hemisphere at this time we need to wait until at least the end of this week before any kind of truly reliable prediction is possible for conditions on the 25th.

[IDO]

Although the finer details at D10 on the models are askew, the overall long-wave pattern and the potential drivers, or lack-off are the defining conclusions. The main feature absent are static waves so a mobile pattern, just the speed to unravel. 

The ECM gives us a transient wedge around Xmas so a transient colder flow. The GEM more of a mini-ridge and the GFS gives us a topple wave:

Pretty average fare and the Russian high, winter killer 2019, remains omnipresent. No Pacific forcing, no Arctic high and although the NH profile is trough'y it is de-facto a flattening pattern. 

It is a case, as it has for a few days now, to await a pattern change, as this current underlying state serves the UK little in Winter cheer. Lets get Winter going!

[tinybill]

this  is  my take  of things   it  might change    xmas  day   wet  with  rain

                                                                      boxing   day places  could  see  snow

subject  to  change!!!                                                                            

 

Edited December 15, 2019 by tinybill

[carinthian]

Morning all. I do hope GEM chart below and this mornings ECM chart are correct in showing a change to colder conditions in time for Christmas.  It has been noticeable that all the main models continue to show heights holding over Greenland and the cold intensifying and locked in to the north. Maybe , this combination can soon start to influence its muscle on these Atlantic lows and start to move south.  Past charts have shown a sudden flip of PM airmass to Ac airmass can occur very quickly as @Steve Murr has shown from a few days ago. However, we need to have GFS on board in the next day or so. Also the latest UKMO show s no inclination towards the ECM trend.  Look forward to this evenings charts.

 

C

[MR EXTREMES]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Although the finer details at D10 on the models are askew, the overall long-wave pattern and the potential drivers, or lack-off are the defining conclusions. The main feature absent are static waves so a mobile pattern, just the speed to unravel. 

The ECM gives us a transient wedge around Xmas so a transient colder flow. The GEM more of a mini-ridge and the GFS gives us a topple wave:

Pretty average fare and the Russian high, winter killer 2019, remains omnipresent. No Pacific forcing, no Arctic high and although the NH profile is trough'y it is de-facto a flattening pattern. 

It is a case, as it has for a few days now, to await a pattern change, as this current underlying state serves the UK little in Winter cheer. Lets get Winter going!

yes i got to say that your ideas are very valid.

its clear vortex russian heights are not really doing us much favours if cold spells is what your looking for.

northern areas will do well.

i had hoped winter 2014 rerun would not take hold again.

but indeed it has the same zonal domination from that year.

which was awful winter for half the country and cold wintry in the north.

hopefully the indian ocean teleconnections might become more favourable for back end of winter.

i've asked santa for a canoe for christmas.

and i asked santa for bbq for jan feb.

as there's also the threat of something tropical especially for the costa southcoast.

[Jordan S]

Morning

An unsettled day in store today with showery rain this wintry on hills for Wales this continuing for southern and western coasts in particular of England and Wales some edging inland as can already be seen although there will be drier spells at times with spells of sunshine around between these. Rain sleet and snow easing for northern parts but perhaps some more moving up into northern England later in the day heavy wintry showers effecting particularly western or northwestern coasts of Scotland. 

Through the evening and many places for the north becoming mostly dry although some wintry showers still around.

England and Wales have heavy showers or longer spells of rain continuing with some torrential downpours in a few places especially towards southern and perhaps southeastern parts of England through the night with lines of heavy showery rain developing through this evening in particular giving locally large rainfall accumulations of perhaps 10-20mm as some areas of rain will be slow moving this accompanied by at times a strong wind this also becoming more confined to the far south later in the night such is the nature of these set ups some places will stay mostly dry or with little rain even in England and Wales for this evening and tonight the Midlands seem favoured for that. 

Arome..

Still some uncertainty regarding how far north and west an area of rain to the south of us reaches on Monday night/Tuesday some models graze it across the southeast but most are showing this to push into southern and Eastern England late Monday becoming heavy and persistent continuing into Tuesday and as this is pushing into cold air established there's a small risk of some wet snow for a short time but most likely to remain as rain atm but a wintry mix developing especially on higher ground is a possibility if this does get far enough into the country.. alternatively most of it could stay away to the southeast. 

Looking ahead and the unsettled theme looks to continue though details are differing alot for the end of the week and upto day 10 atm although perhaps a drier spell for tuesday and Wednesday. 

Gem..

Wednesday. 

Friday.. 

Sunday.. 

Christmas day..

Gem brings low pressure to the west in a little quicker giving a wet Wednesday night for many but upto day 10 it shows it remaining very unsettled with perhaps some deep areas of low pressure. 

GFS delays the arrival of very wet weather until Thursday next week but essentially very similar upto day 10 very unsettled and flooding would really be a concern If these are correct but not overly mild apart from the start and middle of next week as winds remain mostly from the west after midweek.

19th.. 

21st..

23rd..

Christmas eve.. 

Ecmwf..

20th..

23rd..

Christmas day.. 

Ecmwf different beyond next week, very unsettled next week yes but beyond perhaps turning colder with more influence from higher pressure drying things out but speculative at this stage. Later Tuesday and Wednesday look drier atm.

Edited December 15, 2019 by jordan smith

[chris55]

As other have pointed out ECM showing a gorgeous crisp and settle Xmas morning with a hard frost and sunny day! 
 

 

Gfs quite the opposite

 

Edited December 15, 2019 by chris55

[SLEETY]

22 minutes ago, chris55 said:

As other have pointed out ECM showing a gorgeous crisp and settle Xmas morning with a hard frost and sunny day! 
 

 

Gfs quite the opposite

 

Yet everyone yesterday was moaning that it was going to be mild Xmas day ,too much faith in GFS model always it seems in weather forum.ECM looks seasonal for Xmas 

[Duane S.]

If anyone was banking on the 00Z suite to point collectively towards how the Christmas period will actually pan out, they will wake up disappointed I think  Much still to be resolved...

Just about every eventuality still in the mix as well. Perhaps except either end of the spectrum, both deep cold and blowtorch look like serious outsiders at the mo. But stranger things happen. I suspect by Tuesday things should start firming on the direction of travel, if not the detail.

[Duane S.]

5 minutes ago, Dennis said:

 icon6z 

Jet stream nudged a tad further south again by D5.

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yet everyone yesterday was moaning that it was going to be mild Xmas day ,too much faith in GFS model always it seems in weather forum.ECM looks seasonal for Xmas 

Good post sleety.

Weight of evidence still points to a mild Christmas IMO- EC det offers a glimmer of hope, but nothing more at this stage ..

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

58 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Good post sleety.

Weight of evidence still points to a mild Christmas IMO- EC det offers a glimmer of hope, but nothing more at this stage ..

 

GFS also shows a glimmer of hope, these are the 850s for Boxing Day on GFS......10-11 days away, that could be brought a day forward.  FWIW I have timings (solar induced) of peak energy Christmas week 24th onwards....so I think GFS is nearer the mark.

 

Edited December 15, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST