Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[Catacol]

And just to illustrate the truth of current huge model volatility the long range EC clusters are genuinely all over the place. The 6 groupings here represents virtually the entire spectrum of possible options. Right now FI NWP output is even more useless than normal...

[Don]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Keep having to remind myself it's December looking at the output. This chart below almost looks like a poor summer chart for the UK. Add 5C to the 850hpa's and it could be July - heat building over Spain.

 

Yes, it’s horrifying to see!  Just hope it’s wrong!

[Jordan S]

Windy for most atm but for the south they drop off and become light inland for a time but for the far west of Scotland winds are very strong and will remain that way for the next couple of hours courtesy of a small area of low pressure rotating close by with gusts perhaps as high as 60mph or so for the far west of Scotland until evening time accompanied by already a more persistent spell of rain/sleet and perhaps snow in places for parts of northern Ireland and central perhaps southern Scotland too this perhaps easing off for a time later this evening before moving back in later overnight into tomorrow morning with accumulations of snow in some parts here especially over high ground. 

Wind gusts..

During this evening and tonight rain spreads northeast across much of England and Wales falling as snow for parts of Northern England and perhaps North Wales especially over high ground the rain turns heavy for particularly southern and Eastern areas later. 

Rainfall..

And although winds ease down for the north overnight winds strengthen again for Wales and central southern parts of England becoming strong later in the night with gusts of 35-45mph perhaps over 50mph for exposed parts, especially along the coast and the far southwest. 

Edited December 14, 2019 by jordan smith

[swfc]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

...they show trends with flow if you are reasonable sure of the long-wave pattern. The charts show quite a smooth transition of the tPV moving towards the NW of the UK (why I did a GIFF), that has not been seen much this season. The upper temps show a lack of cold reflected in the vast majority of GEFS. 

I would say that the mean has a higher verification than the op at the same range and a significant better representation than random ensemble members that are posted Just For Fun?

...the charts I posted were post when the wedges are being consumed by the lower heights. Based on current modelling and accepting the usual caveats and disclaimers with the weather.

amazing how certain folk are quick to shoot down comments,ah well.id agree the overhaul pattern you suggest with obv caveats.it would seem there is an agenda when your posts or comments don't  fit the sceptical and chased cold outlook but hey ho.granted it is the chase for cold thread but sometimes a bit of realism isn't bad.wedges seems to be the new hip word and hopefully they transpire into something wintry but a bit of respect for other posters comments isn't beyond even the so called heroes of the net weather community.i think after tonights hill snow next week will turn milder and unsettled.Rain is the biggest issue imo and it looks pretty grim for those of us with saturated ground.An mlb would be great for a few weeks but sods law says that's not going to happen.uto

Edited December 14, 2019 by swfc

[IDO]

13 minutes ago, swfc said:

amazing how certain folk are quick to shoot down comments,ah well.id agree the overhaul pattern you suggest with obv caveats.it would seem there is an agenda when your posts or comments don't  fit the sceptical and chased cold outlook but hey ho.granted it is the chase for cold thread but sometimes a bit of realism isn't bad.wedges seems to be the new hip word and hopefully they transpire into something wintry but a bit of respect for other posters comments isn't beyond even the so called heroes of the net weather community.i think after tonights hill snow next week will turn milder and unsettled.Rain is the biggest issue imo and it looks pretty grim for those of us with saturated ground.An mlb would be great for a few weeks but sods law says that's not going to happen

Hi. Yes, there is space for optimists, pessimists, realists and those that post D10+ mean charts!

The D10 means for the big-three:

[booferking]

Icon trying best this run.. Expand that Icelandic wedge then bingo.

Edited December 14, 2019 by booferking

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Icon trying best this run..

That’s pretty close to being very good, just wondering if it is actually possible, probably not as you’d thing the METO forecast would mention it by now!! 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

That’s pretty close to being very good, just wondering if it is actually possible, probably not as you’d thing the METO forecast would mention it by now!! 

Th positioning of this weak wedge of heights is going to be important, if indeed it happens.  ICON T180:

Around Iceland?

[SMU]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Worth chipping in here and saying anecdotally that the GFS ensemble suite may be doing rather well against EPS according to US observers. For once it would appear that the EC is having a problem picking the Pacific pattern, and verification stats for Dec might be worth a look at month’s end. While we know GFS has a westerly bias in the Atlantic if it is doing a better job of sorting out the MJO conundrum in the face of static conditions in the IO then it has a head start. Might be a time not to be so quick to bin GFS and hence the charts above have cogency.

Some kind of change is coming. The Pacific signal is tougher than usual to read right now, and GLAAM is heading downwards at the moment which is not good (though was expected) but the passage of convection towards the maritimes will undoubtedly inject some kind of extra westerly momentum to shake up the relatively flat pattern of the last 10-14 days or so. NWP is making a right mess of working out exactly where any heights might land, but with a long range eye to things I’m hoping it will be as close to Scandy as possible in order to encourage the strongest available wave 2 forcing on the vortex. A cut off high with an easterly feed would be the pot of gold at the end of a rather long shot rainbow given the current wider context, and a more static and settled end product with frost overnight but not a great deal in the way of lowland snow potential feels the more likely best end product for the Xmas period. Worst case scenario would be insufficient forcing to get Euro heights northwards, and the dreaded spectre of a long draw southerly as heights get only half way there. Yuck...but not the form horse in my view.

No harm eyeballing the pot of gold, and hoping MJO progression might emerge robustly, giving a spiking westerly momentum profile that could support a genuine high lat block. We are certainly in the business end of winter now with sufficient cold air across the NH to give proper wintry conditions given the right synoptics.

No time to reply but both EPS & GEFS both probably wrong on ridge into Iceland vis > To progressive

 

ICON out the blocks

Its getting closer....

[ArHu3]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

And just to illustrate the truth of current huge model volatility the long range EC clusters are genuinely all over the place. The 6 groupings here represents virtually the entire spectrum of possible options. Right now FI NWP output is even more useless than normal...

probably because it doesn't know what to do with the mjo, I guess we just have to wait until the mjo leaves the indian ocean and hope for the best

 

 

but for the first 10-12 days the EC is actually very certain and I have seldom seen so little spread in the wind direction in the ensemble so far out

Edited December 14, 2019 by ArHu3

[Mike Poole]

Much happier with UKMO T96 than the 0z at T120, but note 12 hr difference

Low looks much more negatively tilted...

edit, not sure exactly what to make of the T144:

Wet, maybe?

Edited December 14, 2019 by Mike Poole

[LRD]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Much happier with UKMO T96 than the 0z at T120, but note 12 hr difference

Low looks much more negatively tilted...

It goes football shaped again but my eye is also drawn to the heights being dragged up to Greenland from the Eastern Seaboard...

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, LRD said:

It goes football shaped again but my eye is also drawn to the heights being dragged up to Greenland from the Eastern Seaboard...

GFS seeing the similar idea of heights going north from North America

Could be something. Could be nothing

[LRD]

Ends up as nothing...

Except a lot of rain!

[swfc]

Not a bad nhp on the GFS 12z altho the heights to the south putting the breaks on any movement sse of any lower heighths

Edited December 14, 2019 by swfc

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Not a bad nhp on the GFS 12z altho the heights to the south putting the breaks on any movement sse of any lower heighths

Yep that's my take too. Not a bad hemispheric pattern but Iberian heights are proving stubborn

[daz_4]

Another GFS op with very mild Christmas all over Europe. 

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Another GFS op with very mild Christmas all over Europe. 

Yes pretty rank set up there be fi.gfs 12z kind of goes down the toilet in fi 

[LRD]

An utterly revolting, vile FI on GFS 12z

[Methuselah]

But, atl least the deep blue, away to the east and northeast is kinder on the eyes?

                       As far as the deep purples up NW are concerned however, it's more a case of: 

Edited December 14, 2019 by Ed Stone

[northwestsnow]

Mild and wet ..

Another disgusting Dec.

[markw2680]

Think it’s time for a new hobby as this is just quite frankly poo. I no let’s watch my footy team....oh dear that’s poo too what next?

maybe I’ll feel different tomorrow and look on here at the models yet again. Lol it’s all very frustrating but I’m bloody addicted 

[E17boy]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Mild and wet ..

Another disgusting Dec.

Evening all

Does make your mind think now about what the seasonal models predicted for December. We really need some kind of breakthrough in this pattern we are stuck in. We just have to swallow and ride through this, we have no other choice such is our island.  Let's see what pans out in the next week or so I suppose it's a patience game let's hope someone is looking out at us coldies and we see a change.

All the best 

regards

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Think it’s time for a new hobby as this is just quite frankly poo. I no let’s watch my footy team....oh dear that’s poo too what next?

maybe I’ll feel different tomorrow and look on here at the models yet again. Lol it’s all very frustrating but I’m bloody addicted 

Nah you better off watching weather mate lol.yes I think barring the "wedges" side of things nothing on the strat etc which could push and show some strong forcing on the nhp.Not sure if I can take anymore rain after this autumn etc its been at best horrific here and in a lot of northern areas.positives today? owls battered forest.negatives the 6z and 12z so far today.

[fromey]

40 minutes ago, LRD said:

An utterly revolting, vile FI on GFS 12z

Kind of matches this!!