Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[joggs]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening-

 

Appologies if ive missed many replies >>
 

As its stands this eve 

GFS Awful for cold / ECM poor for cold

GEFS V poor for cold>
 

Yet I would put all these aside & dismiss them all in favour of what the UKMO shows 

* That is how much I rate the UKMO over & above the rest especially GFS *
 

Best
S

Fair play Steve. You stuck with it last week (when it was right) but watch it be wrong now its colder trend

So hope ukmo and you are reeping rewards in a few days.

Edited December 13, 2019 by joggs

[Winter Hill]

23 minutes ago, snowray said:

Just have to wait and see I guess, -4/-5c uppers there for Sunday.

Hi Snowray. 
unfortunately we have the Irish Sea on our doorstep.  We’ve had -8 uppers and winds from the North West and only seen sleet. 
I'm sure other members from the North West will tell you that the Irish Sea is a complete pain.   

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening-

 

Appologies if ive missed many replies >>
 

As its stands this eve 

GFS Awful for cold / ECM poor for cold

GEFS V poor for cold>
 

Yet I would put all these aside & dismiss them all in favour of what the UKMO shows 

* That is how much I rate the UKMO over & above the rest especially GFS *
 

Best
S

Ukmo day 6 hasn’t been great the last few days .....guess It’s easy to dismiss it with the other models not agreeing ..... I won’t be rushing to view the models when I arise .....

Edited December 13, 2019 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo day 6 hasn’t been great the last few days ......It’s easy to dismiss it with the other models not agreeing ..... I won’t be rushing to view the models when I arise .....

Me neither, i will view them but the evidence is overwhelming, we are stuck in a dreadful pattern.

Fair play to those chasing though..

[Skyraker]

Evening Ladies,

I've just woken up from my summer hibernation and wanted to say Hi for another season.

Oh and aren't the Wolves doing well?

 

Des.

Edited December 13, 2019 by phil nw.

[feb1991blizzard]

20 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The UKV has backed away slightly, from the previous run. However, it is still showing some decent transient snow, mainly across high ground in the North. Lower levels are still in with a chance of seeing something wintry, but nothing significant.

The 'lying snow' chart points to high ground accumulations.

 

To be fair lately i have started to only take those snow charts even on the Euro 4 and the UKV seriously at T6 or T12 - maybe T18 at a push, they always downgrade it nearer the time - particularly in polar maritime Westerly attacks and they are usually right when they do so.

[Captain Shortwave]

We would probably be struggling to find a similar set of winter scenarios from a winter of the past.

The main arm of the jet stream running through Spain

Yet a mild airmass overhead

There seems to be a split in options where we either see a more typical westerly (or even south westerly) pattern emerges with heights to our east, or we keep a more unusual pattern with weak heights over the Pole steering low pressure further south. The trouble is I am struggling to find a wintry outcome even with the second option, it just looks wet and if the UK gets a bulls-eye hit from these slow moving areas of low pressure then flooding could be an issue over the Christmas break.

Looking at the northern Hemisphere profile, I find it hard to believe that it would be from mid/late December, it looks more like a pattern from Mid Autumn/Spring given the polar vortex is looking significantly weakened at the tropospheric level.

Edited December 13, 2019 by Captain Shortwave

[Nick F]

I wouldn’t have much confidence in model ops past day 6 at the moment, seem to be quite noticeable intra-model differences in the track of the jet into Western Europe and expansion of higher heights eastwards from the Greenland upper ridge later next week. 18z GFS and earlier 12z GFS lowering heights more into Central Europe than EC - which goes on to merge the far N Atlantic upper vortex with the vortex over Barents Sea thus raises heights over SW Europe.

Deep cold still way out of reach, but we could get ‘faux’ cold continental flow instead in run up to Christmas.

Edited December 13, 2019 by Nick F

[Daniel*]

Maybe a good pub run here W Russia surface high gone and pressure rising over Scandi.

>

Much colder air significantly closer...

>

Edited December 13, 2019 by Daniel*

[phil nw.]

A few posts have been hidden.

Remember guys moans and general chat to the other threads-just on topic discussions in here.Oh and please don't respond to off topic stuff,just report and one of the team will respond as soon as.

Thanks.

[swfc]

So the 18z is staying with the same theme so far windy ,cool and wet.not sure where fi is even if it exists anymore tbh!!!so a trip to Lapland next year anybody up for it? Pre Xmas and a guarented fix before the big day!!!it could be a lifeline for your sanity folks.pm for details

[swfc]

9 hours ago, Downpour said:

He may or may not be right this time, but he just follows the latest model runs, adding very little insight IMO.

He also has access to a lot of EC updates and non public info.anyway check out the 18z at 336 hrs .unusual profile showing .we have two eyes in the Atlantic and a mouth over southern Spain!!!

Edited December 14, 2019 by Blessed Weather

[SMU]

1 hour ago, joggs said:

Fair play Steve. You stuck with it last week (when it was right) but watch it be wrong now its colder trend

So hope ukmo and you are reeping rewards in a few days.

Cheers thanks

18z a halfhearted move >> But as said thats the way it normally works...

Such a pity we dont get UKMO 168 on Meteociel...

[feb1991blizzard]

Here is to reward the great people of Wrexham!!

 

Edited December 13, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Summerstorm]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is to reward the great people of Wrexham!!

 

Need some consolation after recent results to be honest 

Anyway to keep this on post on topic here the GEFS for the 18z run 

Bit of a mixed bag but some cooler runs in there still to far out to call how the year may end. 

Edited December 14, 2019 by Summerstorm

[Dennis]

ICON 0z

[Ali1977]

Pretty good signal right there, as per the EC monthly

[KTtom]

Ukmo day 5 and 6 sees a football low to the west with a southerly flow over the uk...looks like a return to generally mild, unsettled and windy  conditions from mid week especially the further west you are....

 

Edited December 14, 2019 by KTtom

[danthetan]

 Good UKMO & ECM this morning better disruption of the low in the Atlantic @144 with models reverting back to climatology in the extended range I wouldn't be surprised if everything backs west and more favourable charts appear in the coming days. 

[SMU]

ECM 00z 168 today compared with 00z 192 last night- Model beginning to think its got it all wrong....

Finely balanced at the moment in March 2013 checking the archives models started aligning about day 6/7 which is another day away yet...
 

Edited December 14, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Dennis]

a dream  .....or who knows.....

[Methuselah]

An interesting, if fanciful, finale for the GFS 00Z!

    

I'll be interested to see just how those temps respond, once the heat starts building around the Tropic of Cancer...?

PS: A mere 25C spread in T850s says it all!

Edited December 14, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Jordan S]

Are you okay Arpege?

Seems to want to bring heavy rain into southern counties and have it eventually fall as heavy wet snow during Tuesday.. No other model aggreement though so atm very small chance.

Gem agrees on rain pushing in but remaining as rain.  putting any other detail onto that at this stage is rather pointless but will be interesting to see what the afternoon and evening runs bring and if there begins to be more support or.. None. We shall see. 

Edited December 14, 2019 by jordan smith

[stratty]

44 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Are you okay Arpege?

 

Seems to want to bring heavy rain into southern counties and have it eventually fall as heavy wet snow during Tuesday.. No other model aggreement though so atm very small chance.

 

[Chesil View]

50 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

An interesting, if fanciful, finale for the GFS 06Z!

    

I'll be interested to see just how those temps respond, once the heat starts building around the Tropic of Cancer...?

PS: A mere 25C spread in T850s says it all!

That’s the 00z Ed