Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Mike c-Mon..

It's phases of amplifier are notoriously ballooned..

I'm liking the unwind of synoptic

Sorry TI I had posted the wrong chart, corrected now, and yes I think some pain to get through on the ECM, I would prefer it if the UKMO is right, it was right when it denied us a week or two ago, hope it will be this time too, but Sod's law will probably rule!!

Edited December 13, 2019 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

Safe to say i don't want EC to verify!!!

[BlueHedgehog074]

It’s interesting how the GFS is doing an ‘ECMWF’, and now the ECMWF is doing a ‘GFS’.

[joggs]

Just now, DiagonalRedLine said:

It’s interesting how the GFS is doing an ‘ECMWF’, and now the ECMWF is doing a ‘GFS’.

Ukmo should be right though

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

It’s interesting how the GFS is doing an ‘ECMWF’, and now the ECMWF is doing a ‘GFS’.

Funnily enough i was just thinking exactly the same thing!! GFS hopped on the EC bus with the elongated big low, now EC has jumped off the bus!!

Hopefully an outlier ..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very difficult to see anything positive in that chart.

Unless you want yet more wind and rain.

Unfortunately a LOT more precip is ‘guaranteed’.....just how it falls.  
 

BFTP

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

30 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Oh dear!

ECM T192. better hope the UKMO is right...

What’s causing the lows to stagnate to the West ? Is it the euro slug ?

Edited December 13, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[That ECM]

If the ecm is to be believed we best head to Buxton for a net weather Saturday night party. Venue, around a lamppost. not many opportunities for a similar party in the following 9 days

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

What’s causing the lows to stagnate to the West ? Is it the euro slug ?

Thats the million dollar question

I'm sure Weather history might be able to give a more accurate summary but we will be approaching Dec 2015 soon rainfall wise locally at least, if this keeps up for another week or more.

[SLEETY]

well last time the ukmo went against cold a couple of weeks ago and the other models joined it.Lets hope this time they join the ukmo

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

What’s causing the lows to stagnate to the West ? Is it the euro slug ?

That's a real chicken and egg question!  You could equally ask why is the euro slug where it is!  This is where the teleconnections stuff comes in as it dictates the wave pattern around the globe - or more simply put, what is driving what?

Edited December 13, 2019 by Mike Poole

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

If the ecm is to be believed we best head to Buxton for a net weather Saturday night party. Venue, around a lamppost. not many opportunities for a similar party in the following 9 days

I thought about doing just that the other day, could have our net weather Christmas party up there, build a net weather snowman, get pished, mince pies and snowball fights!

Lots of rain to come though away from high ground, really fed up with rain and cold winds.

[snowray]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats the million dollar question

I'm sure Weather history might be able to give a more accurate summary but we will be approaching Dec 2015 soon rainfall wise locally at least, if this keeps up for another week or more.

At least there's a fair chance of it turning to sleet and snow up your way, if it stays as rain then I would be really depressed.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

At least there's a fair chance of it turning to sleet and snow up your way, if it stays as rain then I would be really depressed.

I doubt very much there will be snow here ray- perhaps another 100-150 m higher up,for a short period.

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

well last time the ukmo went against cold a couple of weeks ago and the other models joined it.Lets hope this time they join the ukmo

Yes that's true.just to note the ukmo isn't actually showing cold up to 144 hrs.after that who knows but it shows how low the bar is ATM.anyway onwards and upwards .uto

[phil nw.]

ECM going the same way as the others.A pretty flat 500 hemisphere pattern just mini ridges moving through on a mainly southerly jet -so at least for now no blow torch south westerlies.

Disappointing we lose amplification in the pattern just as we see those continuing -ve ht anomalies over the pole.For now the cold remains just out of our reach to the north.

Edited December 13, 2019 by phil nw.

[swfc]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I doubt very much there will be snow here ray- perhaps another 100-150 m higher up,for a short period.

Our forecast is 1000ft towards peak District app. I have to endure rain

[knocker]

24 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

What’s causing the lows to stagnate to the West ? Is it the euro slug ?

Simple answer. The intensification of the subtropical ridge to the east diverts the eastbound energy thus the surface systems lose all west > east momentum

[snowray]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I doubt very much there will be snow here ray- perhaps another 100-150 m higher up,for a short period.

Thought you were quite high up there at 600ft, if not you'll have to go up to the Peak District. Wish I had some decent hills around this way above 300m to go snow hunting.

EDIT: Yes looks like above 1,000ft.

Edited December 13, 2019 by snowray

[Dennis]

last week of december is not how it went last years......

[swfc]

Anyone got the extended ukmo?tia

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, knocker said:

Simple answer. The intensification of the subtropical ridge to the east diverts the eastbound energy thus the surface systems lose all west > east momentum

Cheers for that Knocker.

It would appear this pattern has no easy escape route, as it stands.

[jules216]

Once again another example where this time AO will tank but Euro high is here,over the summer,autumn or winter so far this year there were various situations with either NAO or AO in negative values yet always acompanied by Euro high present,its either central,bit to the west or bit to the east,it relaxes for about 4 days a month and then returns with a bang. MJO in circle of death,IOD hangover to last until mid February,apparently QBO descending too slowly,all this extravaganza leeding to a week long cold spell at the end of February 2013-2020 spell going down even worse way then 1988-1994, then we at least had frigid autumns now nothing, every single promising spell of blocking ends up benefiting US, there were 2 exceptions January 2017 and February 2018 in Europe for widespread cold Jan17 not even benefiting UK. No I am not writting of winter yet,but the most exciting period for cold and snow is gone and with it a real interest in models, If winter decides to come in February it might not even bother,by then I want spring and mild.

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Cheers for that Knocker.

It would appear this pattern has no easy escape route, as it stands.

Funnily enough I have just been looking at how the downstream  ext EPS anomalies have changed in two days. The weakening and dissolution of the European ridge has been indicated recently Of course one can't take this in isolation

 

Edited December 13, 2019 by knocker

[blizzard81]

8 hours ago, knocker said:

Funnily enough I have just been looking at how the downstream  ext EPS anomalies have changed in two days. The weakening and dissolution of the European ridge has been indicated recently Of course one can't take this in isolation

 

Pretty much how GP predicted in his post a couple of days ago. I suppose we better be prepared for much more rain to come.