Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[SMU]

March 13 Actual V UKMO 144

 

Look at the high similarities !

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

March 13 Actual V UKMO 144

 

Look at the high similarities !

I don't disagree.

Match 2013 turned out to be great, but for Dec 2019 it doesn't look likely to.

Unless we see a dramatic turnaround...

 

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

March 13 Actual V UKMO 144

 

Look at the high similarities !

Doesn't matter if you can't get the cold in can't we ?

[joggs]

9 minutes ago, IDO said:

It seems up to D10 there is simply no forcing from the tropics and although the tPV is weak allowing wedges to float in hi-lats, with no wave activity, getting any true blocking simply looks a no deal. We may get a wedge sliding over Greenland or Scandi but not a true block and mobile within the undercurrent of the background signal that has been miserable for real UK cold since Nov. Not even close getting a cold flow let alone sustained to the UK on the 12z.

We have seen many variations the last few days and nothing brings cold so unless something extraordinary happens cold looks off the menu pre-Christmas. D10 chart:

The tPV circling the Arctic high, minimal prospects of cold on this run into late FI. Look at the west to east HP cell flow from the Pacific, hopeless for mid or high lat blocking.

Of course, the 12z will be forgotten by the 18z but until we actually see a route to cold on an op run it isn't great for cold and until the UKMO shows post-7-days, any promise of those chart should be treated with caution as we have seen even by D10 the ECM is not that great. So not expecting cold till we get a more amplified pattern.

Great post. Exactly where we stand imo 

[SLEETY]

34 minutes ago, swfc said:

hi sleety.you may have a point there but what if ukmo and EC etc are incorrect.not after a stats debate "kill me now" just a point 

Probably will be,less cold nearly always wins out in UK !

[SMU]

14 minutes ago, joggs said:

Great post. Exactly where we stand imo 

Great post regarding the model least likely to verify.

Again for clarity the GFS runs for NAO 10/12 & 13/12 noting is woeful NAO modelling.

After all these years all lemmings still following the worst model.

[blizzard81]

25 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

March 13 Actual V UKMO 144

 

Look at the high similarities !

I hope you are right. However, there are some crucial differences. The stark one being over north eastern Canada. Totally blocked in 2013. Not so this time unfortunately. 

Edited December 13, 2019 by blizzard81

[tight isobar]

Overall pattern matching...along with some knowledge of deciphering.

 

And an,understand if not upper layer consequences...but rather linear/angular works..is by far the notion ..if raw modeling is your thing.

 

And perhaps more importantly the understand of a run/suite in light years..'if ya like' it's already playing a catch up phase in the grand scheme...of things..

This I see often.-miss interpretation:

Anyway my above..and b4 posts I hope Will Platt into what indeed I'm getting at!!=

I can see massive potential in alignment/running momentum-with a desired effect of a link to a Siberian outlet via placement of order... 

We'll await...aye !!!!

[Weathizard]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Great post regarding the model least likely to verify.

Again for clarity the GFS runs for NAO 10/12 & 13/12 noting is woeful NAO modelling.

After all these years all lemmings still following the worst model.

You post GEM and ICON charts though Steve, the GFS certainly performs better than those. Also the ECM isn’t exactly a winter wonderland.

I get the positive angle you come from but realistically we need to get extremely lucky for everything to fall into place for anything in the next 2 weeks, you’d expect to see at least some ensemble support growing by now if it were likely.

[swfc]

29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Great post regarding the model least likely to verify.

Again for clarity the GFS runs for NAO 10/12 & 13/12 noting is woeful NAO modelling.

After all these years all lemmings still following the worst model.

Just opinions Steve ?non of us are pros are we really.

Edited December 13, 2019 by swfc

[Mike Poole]

Just out of interest, before the ECM rolls, GEFS 12z postage stamps at T360:

No clear signal for UK cold or otherwise, but a clear signal for a continued mangled trop vortex.  As long as that goes on, we just need to wait for amplification in the right place to drop lucky...

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Nothing to write home about

 

Need something dramatic to change the repetitive stalling of lows to the west of the UK.

Edited December 13, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[swfc]

Good grief EC blows up at 120 hrs.nothing like ukmo imo

[Mike Poole]

ECM in step with UKMO at T120, here UKMO left:

the Atlantic low looks blown up more! probably not good! Arctic high draining into Greenland stronger, let's see how this run goes....

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144 and yep, that low does seem to have made a big difference, compared with UKMO left:

Im not writing the run off yet though!

[swfc]

Tbh the EC at 144hrs looks in line with the GFS 12z.even the slack heights are a  close match imo

Edited December 13, 2019 by swfc

[tight isobar]

Format correct..

And heights arrangement!!=

What more atm can I push!!!

[Mike Poole]

Oh dear!

ECM T192. better hope the UKMO is right...

Edited December 13, 2019 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Oh dear!

ECM T168, better hope the UKMO is right...

Very difficult to see anything positive in that chart.

Unless you want yet more wind and rain.

[markw2680]

Forgot how many times we have been led up the garden path already lol, until there is some consistency between models there’s no point imo in looking beyond about 72 hours as they are all over the shop 

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Oh dear!

ECM T168, better hope the UKMO is right...

Mike c-Mon..

It's phases of amplifier are notoriously ballooned..

I'm liking the unwind of synoptic..

It's the Atlantic break off vortice..that's being overplayed...model compare will show this undoubtedly!

Edited December 13, 2019 by tight isobar

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Format correct..

And heights arrangement!!=

What more atm can I push!!!

To be fair that picture isn't a true pic of the  nhp TI

Edited December 13, 2019 by swfc

[blizzard81]

10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Format correct..

And heights arrangement!!=

What more atm can I push!!!

That's all well and good but as long as these keep spawning off the eastern seaboard, we will be waiting a looooong time. 

[Weathizard]

Game over on the ECM! Not that I thought we were in an actual game but there you go! 

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very difficult to see anything positive in that chart.

Unless you want yet more wind and rain.

Can't wait could do with the rain for garden!!!