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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I hope people are seeing things that i'm not....models and ensembles on the whole look pretty underwhelming to me. There isn't even one ensemble member below -5c until day 14 on the GFS this morning. Looks like too much Atlantic energy again.

As long as the lows stay parked to the West or over the UK there is little hope of getting anything colder. What will it take to get the lows away from there ? Could it be the SSTs being unfavourable again in the North Atlantic ?

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS now inline with UKMO

Going to be the best run yet.

D8D59CB4-8B08-4DE0-ACC8-34CB3DE559F6.thumb.png.cac81275729cfec9ff3347dbbe70d59f.png

I smell a january 2013 here steve?!!!!could be some big runs this evening

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

this is so frustrating to watch

anim_tfe0.gif

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS now inline with UKMO

Going to be the best run yet.

D8D59CB4-8B08-4DE0-ACC8-34CB3DE559F6.thumb.png.cac81275729cfec9ff3347dbbe70d59f.png

Great to see that it's now following the UKMO hopefully the ECM will start to follow suit tonight but as always never say never...

No short term cold just but it's definitely there in the east and north  

Edited by Skullzrulerz
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Posted
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
13 minutes ago, jules216 said:

this is so frustrating to watch

anim_tfe0.gif

It is frustrating but that's only looking at a short time frame.  As that system slides east to the south of the UK and takes its warm sector with it into Europe, it increases the chances of the cold being drawn further south and west.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

At last, the inevitable seems to be happening, and some deep, cold air looks like becoming established, away to our E and NE...If today's GEF 06Z (and other models) turns out to be anywhere near correct, of course...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Alleluia!:clap:

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Cold being to the east and north isn’t exactly abnormal winter weather is it? There’s not a single ensemble member below -5 until deep FI, the ECM and ensembles are poor even at 240. Struggling to see anything to get excited about but there you go.

Normal winter fayre for the UK right now and for the foreseeable unfortunately IMO

DA1793B0-3309-408D-8F59-9E4622B63197.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Cold being to the east and north isn’t exactly abnormal winter weather is it? There’s not a single ensemble member below -5 until deep FI, the ECM and ensembles are poor even at 240. Struggling to see anything to get excited about but there you go.

Normal winter fayre for the UK right now and for the foreseeable unfortunately IMO

DA1793B0-3309-408D-8F59-9E4622B63197.png

Well we'll see be well worth a look at the 500 geo p_stamps..in a while..from around 19/12/2019=onwards...I have a hunch many will be picking up the signal for a cut into the pole at more desired location...and as again...getting that arm of cold air injection into our shores...I'll post them when available....

 

Let's have a gander then...

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Could do with one of those famed westward 'corrections' methinks? Were that to happen, the Expres headline-writers could combine 'phew, what a scorcher' and 'the beast-from-the-east is nigh' stories into one big steaming pile!:oldgrin:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
42 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS now inline with UKMO

Going to be the best run yet.

D8D59CB4-8B08-4DE0-ACC8-34CB3DE559F6.thumb.png.cac81275729cfec9ff3347dbbe70d59f.png

Not yet Steve as we know what GFS does in FI but that is as far as we need to go currently.  UKMO is again remaining steady so looking pleasing going forward 

 

BFTP 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
31 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I will take the GEM control run please for xmas day !

7EABD8B5-6312-4D5E-8A8E-9F6B79E55ADB.thumb.png.0eda5cdd7d96a79ea5d8eae461162bd8.png

What a mental run that is, even ends well 4 days later. This would go on to be a prolonged historic big freeze if in reality!! 

 

CE128E37-E7D3-458D-8B19-B6063D52EE4C.png

Edited by Ali1977
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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

What a mental run that is, even ends well 4 days later. This would be a historic big freeze if in reality!! 

13C4776F-9BBB-4463-B5FF-FA2C243AA3E3.jpeg

Yes - Nice photo of a computer screen there lol >
GFS ENS 06z another incremental amplification at 120 v the 00z so will expect some good runs soon...

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

On the face of it, I can see why some people are not excited but I can also see why some are excited by the output. 

Very little signs of significant cold heading our way but it is one of those if things do fall into play, we may start tapping into some colder air from the NE as per the GEM run

Would add though my first impressions of the UKMO run was one of disappointment as the low in the Atlantic does not look like it would be squashed and try to slide, even the ECM looks a bit better in this regard but turned out unremarkable. See how it develops in the coming days. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, daz_4 said:

There are probably three 6z ENS that bring something noteworthy in the FI but overall it's another underwhelming set. 

With FI being around 120-144 you can’t take much from deep FIs charts, although obviously it’s nice to see some good ones. If the op flips cold expect a sudden flip on the ENS, that flip may not happen of course. I’m still thinking nothing notable till after Crimbo, but hope I’m wrong!! 

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