Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Like the UKMO at T144:

Would like of course to see the next few days, but maybe the ECM will be in sync again and can help with that.

Need to sleep now after election 

Same here.

GFS at T144.....not staying up for the ECM.

[Ali1977]

Might not have the Scandy high developing as much but forget that, look at the Arctic high compared to earlier. This is only day 6 too, big change.

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Might not have the Scandy high developing as much but forget that, look at the Arctic high compared to earlier. This is only day 6 too, big change.

Oh my.....It's a slider!

[Mucka]

GFS with the undercut, things get interesting...

Big ECM later.

[SMU]

Amazing UKMO ! Ridge alignment in a great location.

[SLEETY]

Huge difference in GFS upto 180 hours,could be a sudden change to bitter Arctic outbresk for much of Europe towards Xmas ,ice

[Ali1977]

12 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS with the undercut, things get interesting...

Big ECM later.

Ends up poor but I think I’ll wait till the ECM comes out before I draw much from that.

[Mucka]

11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Huge difference in GFS upto 180 hours,could be a sudden change to bitter Arctic outbresk for much of Europe towards Xmas ,ice

Typical GFS FI though sending the jet North

FI currently 120

Given how much GFS has moved over the last couple of days just in the shorter/mid term we are still clearly trending the right way, just not quite there yet.

Edited December 13, 2019 by Mucka

[SMU]

GEM takes another step west at 168 now the ridge moving NW just clips Iceland...

GFS mean at 144 more amplified as well --

All good indicators this morning.

Awaiting Warsaw ENS

[KTtom]

Surprised Nick hasnt been on thowing the toys out regarding yet another shortwave stationed west of Norway which is the difference between a visually pleasing chart and one which actually gets the cold to the uk...this mornings ukmo and gfs both have this feature, gfs below, and until if goes its acting a forcefield to getting the cold uppers to the uk, fact- the gfs doesnt get the -5 isotherm to the uk at any stage during the entire run after this weekend.......same people leading others up the garden path

 

Edited December 13, 2019 by KTtom

[jules216]

back to chasing FI,too much of a Euro high influence once again im afraid,no cold air in Europe appart from odd ensemble member,plague of this autumn/winter so far 

[Mucka]

ECM has broken the trend with a poor run this morning. Just one run and ensembles will tell us more but disappointing as we were on a roll. 

[Duane S.]

00Zs suite as a whole excellent this morning. Admittedly, I am also looking with one eye on the Alps as well, but a quick glance at the ECM D8 whilst may’ve not looked great...

...in keeping with the increasing trend, we end up, again, with low pressure dropping SE into Europe.

I’ve been watching the GEFS 850 tables for the Alps religiously for a week. I can tell you I have seen the yellows retracting on a daily basis. Plenty of options remain for EU heights still over the Christmas period, so not a done deal yet,  but it has been quite a turnaround in just a few days.

 

[Newberryone]

As previous posters have just highlighted an underwhelming set of charts from the Ecm overnight run. Chilly few days coming up with occasional wintry showers before the usual dross heads back in off the Atlantic around midweek, i.e. changeable as opposed to overly unsettled with average temps. We can only hope the man himself might come up with one or two surprises by the 25th

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

00Zs suite as a whole excellent this morning. Admittedly, I am also looking with one eye on the Alps as well, but a quick glance at the ECM D8 whilst may’ve not looked great...

...in keeping with the increasing trend, we end up, again, with low pressure dropping SE into Europe.

I’ve been watching the GEFS 850 tables for the Alps religiously for a week. I can tell you I have seen the yellows retracting on a daily basis. Plenty of options remain for EU heights still over the Christmas period, so not a done deal yet,  but it has been quite a turnaround in just a few days.

 

Im off skiing 04 Jan so have been monitoring that area closely too, defo improving over the last few days and the higher temps previously forecast are moderating run by run. The ECM at 240 dives the jet and LPs into the MED, and it looks like a HP is developing again near north Scandy. 
Interesting model watching, and I feel like they’ll be a big jump in the next few days that will bring festive cheer for coldies.

Anyone that wants to see lots of snow, the Alps are getting absolutely plastered today!! 

Resort Centre webcam, Les 2 Alpes | 2Alpesnet.com

WWW.2ALPESNET.COM

---

Live updates every 15 minutes

50 cm due today and only 1600 ASL. 

Edited December 13, 2019 by Ali1977

[mb018538]

I hope people are seeing things that i'm not....models and ensembles on the whole look pretty underwhelming to me. There isn't even one ensemble member below -5c until day 14 on the GFS this morning. Looks like too much Atlantic energy again.

[lassie23]

42 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I hope people are seeing things that i'm not....models and ensembles on the whole look pretty underwhelming to me. There isn't even one ensemble member below -5c until day 14 on the GFS this morning. Looks like too much Atlantic energy again.

Hard to see anything exciting and anything in Fi is for the bin 90% of the time and not even worth posting about. Here today, gone tomorrow.

Edited December 13, 2019 by lassie23

[Gowon]

16 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Hard to see anything exciting and anything in F1 is for the bin 90% of the time and not even worth posting about. Here today, gone tomorrow.

You're going to need a really big bin if you want to bin everything in F1??

Edited December 13, 2019 by D.V.R
Typo

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

You're going to need a really big bin if you want to bin everything in F1??

mainly the cold runs as they mostly prove to be bin fodder lol

[Gowon]

Just now, lassie23 said:

mainly the cold runs as they mostly prove to be bin fodder lol

It's FI.. F1 is motor sport 

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

It's FI.. F1 is motor sport 

can't see what i'm typing lol it's dark, that's my excuse and i'm sticking to it

Edited December 13, 2019 by lassie23

[jules216]

There is still some light at the end of tunnel according to this mornings EPS but its getting frustratingly pushed back now at least until 26.12, mean T850 dropping to respectable -4C, thats Central Europe though, it must be seeing some sort of undercut eventually. haven't seen the 500mb anomaly to confirm though

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just as a fun little comparison for the beginning of Friday next week, the 12Z GFS was showing this yesterday for that day (180 hours):

 

And now this morning’s 00Z GFS is showing this for the beginning of Friday next week:

Atlantic Lows more squashed and sliding better underneath the South-West of the UK. Also helped by the fact that heights to the East of the UK are lower with the main area of High Pressure to the North. 

Again just for a bit of fun. Until something like this reaches a more reliable time-frame (always still a possible chance heights over Europe could end up halting the Eastwards progression of Low Pressure), then is best to avoid this type of path. 

[Jordan S]

Less being made of the snow for tomorrow night the Gfs more towards rain but a wintry mix with some snow on high ground Is possible although southern Ireland may get something a little more substantial during tomorrow evening. 

GFS.. 

Hirlam.. 

Quite a bit of snow for northern areas of England and Wales especially on high ground but some to lower levels if this is correct. 

Icon is slightly further south with this and more towards a wintry mix so it is marginal with rain for the south. 

As I mentioned yesterday For later today a low pressure system tracks east southeast towards the uk depending on how this interacts with the jetstream running above it we could see some significant development of this as it tracks either across the far south or through the channel. Gfs doesnt make too much of it..

GFS wind gusts.. 

Here's the jetstream..

The high resolution Arome and Arpege develop this into a pretty major feature worth noting these do tend to overdo wind strength but the chance of a more vigorous depression is there.

Arome..

Arpege..

Icon..

Southwest England likely to be very windy yet again seems a bit of a theme doesn't it? with gusts possibly around 50mph later this evening and overnight this spreading through the English Channel with gusts perhaps around 70mph or slightly above for a time but its dependent on how this low interacts with the jet stream like I've mentioned. In any case it will be very windy for the southwest and the channel. 

Some rain spreading across southern counties perhaps into the south Midlands too Through this evening and overnight with blustery showers elsewhere these wintry for some. 

Arome..

Edited December 13, 2019 by jordan smith

[Ali1977]

Very interesting, nice hp forecast on latest EC monthly for New year.  Looking closely at the colours that’s a strong signal between Scandy and Svalbard which would be awesome for Western Europe. 
Just to note, this period isn’t even showing in deep FI on the GFS, so if we start seeing that signal on the GFS or GEFS charts (which we have done a little) then this could be a good sign and lead us to this - IF ONLY IT WERE THAT SIMPLE!! 

Edited December 13, 2019 by Ali1977