Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Comparing ECM 00z with 12z here is a better trend towards

 undercutting with the approaching LP

image.thumb.png.852a1e4e4565ee9c71275f63987003e0.png  v image.thumb.png.8725bdf4640470c1561bb9ef0d36520b.png

with the D10 chart looking full of 'potential'

image.thumb.png.5f8ee9355fe28ec01927684539f87149.png

NH

image.thumb.png.2a84044648990f361bd34ea49454cf24.png

Dare one compare to Jan 1987?

image.thumb.png.18c5650b2312d6ef5ddf2a775d037f5c.png

Edited by Purga
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T240 looks interesting although I doubt it will pan out quite like this.

image.thumb.jpg.b05ebd6476731f255c144e946f17731d.jpg

I think with this situation with the jet well south, and wedges of fairly weak high pressure in play, the orientation of the various features is absolutely crucial.  Uppers rubbish at this point:

image.thumb.jpg.d637bb055088ceb4fdb2aaa04b1df2c3.jpg

But could easily bring some cold in down the line from here.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

PV shot to pieces on the ECM, pity it don't go out a bit further.

ECH1-240.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

there is the wedge bit stronger game on

.InkedECH1-216.thumb.gif.f4ad8776d657ee0545f31bbc6d1f1480.gif

its 9 days away

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

That is crazy cold in N Scandinavia, wouldn’t take much of a change change to tap into that!! 

69E5BC86-C826-435A-850D-1F0A8A1AEB2C.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Ecm day 10 uppers... unfortunately we can hardly be further away from proper cold uppers for mid december, yes, looks great synoptically, but i think most on here are intereted in what hapens here, like mentioned this morning, as the current set up shows we are along way from getting proper cold uppers to the uk due to the gaggle of shortwaves to the north and north east.

 

 

ECMOPNH12_240_2.png

Edited by KTtom
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That is crazy cold in N Scandinavia, wouldn’t take much of a change change to tap into that!! 

69E5BC86-C826-435A-850D-1F0A8A1AEB2C.png

I love charts that show that sort of cold up around Scandi, can you imagine if that lot moved a 1,000 or so miles in our direction just in time for Christmas? Never know....as usual, more runs required.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
34 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

but wait theres more this could bring interesting times.

194176651_ECM1-216(3).thumb.gif.a61aab480404d178eab3dae5a6be5c34.gif

Unfortunately no cold air over Europe to tap into whether further into lala land it taps into a cold source is fairly mute.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
18 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That is crazy cold in N Scandinavia, wouldn’t take much of a change change to tap into that!! 

69E5BC86-C826-435A-850D-1F0A8A1AEB2C.png

How unlucky are we nearly every year/time Scandi or Europe go cold.  I need a break from model watching already

Few days off whilst the eye candy rolls closer for everyone

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

When you look at the whole of the northern hemisphere it really frustrates me to see the uk is always warmer than anywhere else in the same latitude, I no it’s all down to the Atlantic but how annoying is it lol.

wondering whether we may squeeze a few flakes out sat night although we are probably a little to far south here.

also imo there’s not much point in looking at day 9,10 and so on as small changes earlier on will make it irrelevant later in the run, yes I no trends and all that but how often do they verify? I think cold spells or snaps will pop up all of a sudden rather than countdown 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM ensemble mean, T192:

image.thumb.jpg.3ff1766f73f017dfa12064bf10ca9c32.jpg

Strong support for the op and UKMO position, I think. T240:

image.thumb.jpg.7a95a774900326cdb5acf202838590f3.jpg

Support for height rises to NE, indicative of high heights somewhere over he pole, and (I think I made a comment last night also) purple rubbish well away from Greenland.  Will be interested to see the clusters, and as I'll be up watching the election, I will probably comment on them, later!

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

As I said yesterday, the key features which remain in play is the fact the PV over Greenland especially will be weakening, the Arctic high developing over the pole with the possibility of it ridging towards Svalbard and the caver of a Euro high developing. 

Yes, we could have cold snowy charts appearing but it means little even if we do after 180 hours or so. Maybe it's one of those colder set ups could appear closer to the time when we least expect it? 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
23 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Models still toying with the idea of higher pressure development around Christmas time (as some others have also mentioned) lots more runs needed before any confidence in this and exact positioning will be key should it develop, some from tonight's GEM ensembles.

gens-12-1-384.thumb.png.3a22fe9eef5ea9e3b7d76e7e7e4df527.pnggensnh-16-1-384.thumb.png.b298582dc53599d05befce8804188ac3.pnggensnh-20-1-384.thumb.png.8420beee16d76f4b1daaca4fcee89f8c.png 

Some of tonights GEM ensembles

gens-5-1-312.thumb.png.6551cdb116996d9095c52ecf7abf1168.pnggensnh-8-1-324.thumb.png.ea30f7c20ec6322eaa2f5023d5f98012.pnggensnh-15-1-288.thumb.png.a5520550e779cb6a4feedaeb8c3ee3e2.pnggensnh-15-1-384.thumb.png.a8d62680eda669620268cb73a6c94c8e.png 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

UKMO T168

ukm2.2019121912.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc

 

Hard to tell on these charts, but close to the ECM, it would appear. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All-

Today is probably the first day that many will start to take notice of the ECM ( & of course the UKMO which dovetails nicely in together at 144 )

What we have here is a clear case of a model backing away from the initial proposed continuation of the zonal flow to something potentially very amplified.

This transition is clearly demonstrated in the modality change of the AO taken from the 12z ECM operational.

E503CC4F-60FC-4F8C-BC08-6C9D30DD6C59.thumb.jpeg.c51b3335099b5daf0d7497020516a194.jpeg

It has to be said & earmarked at this very early stage that no-one can be certain of any outcome whether that be some deep seated easterly or a flattening of the pattern with no cold.

The ECM ( & GEM ) are picking up a transition signal & at day 9/10 may well continue to move fully through that transition to a scenario of what want ( a la 2013 ) or indeed stop short of Nirvana.

Whilst he was ridiculed on here for all the right reasons certainly the Ian brown phrase of if you cant see the train then its not coming-

Its great to see positive developments over the last 24 hours at 8/9/10 whilst the interim continues to show periodic snow events at localised levels over the UK...

An exciting few days to look forward to - All aboard the chase as it starts inline with the crimbo run in..

 with all due respect Steve these models not in the reliable timeframe if they were surely Exeter would have picked up on the signal yes they do go for some cold however next week mild is the forecast before it cools down again into the new year they are going for dry but temperature is above or shall I say slightly above average I may be wrong but the ECMD9 and 10 doesn’t look cold to me if I am wrong someone mate correct me. ☺️

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...