Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[booferking]

Lets pull out the GEM charts again as we know few in the moans ramp thread dont like it strong Arctic heights..

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Lets pull out the GEM charts again as we know few in the moans ramp thread dont like it strong Arctic heights..

haha oh dear is it that bad really

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

I think the pv to the east of the low will merge with the low and blow up imo stopping the low sliding. hope to be very wrong tho

It is so hard to get UK cold even when we get these repeated opportunities. As you say, that is one of several factors that could act as spoilers in getting there.

I still think something is brewing by Year's end. If we look at the cold in FI 12z op...

...if we do get lucky it could be noteworthy!

[booferking]

Just now, swfc said:

haha oh dear is it that bad really

Looking forward to the snow chances this weekend and a cold 4-5 days coming up wont know until after the weekend the next stage of travel all in all i'm pretty pleased.

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Looking forward to the snow chances this weekend and a cold 4-5 days coming up wont know until after the weekend the next stage of travel all in all i'm pretty pleased.

think you will find next week is rank and wet

[Mucka]

15 minutes ago, IDO said:

It is so hard to get UK cold even when we get these repeated opportunities. As you say, that is one of several factors that could act as spoilers in getting there.

I still think something is brewing by Year's end. If we look at the cold in FI 12z op...

...if we do get lucky it could be noteworthy!

Indeed. If you predict potential blocking, never mind cold for the UK, will fail then you will be right more times than you are wrong, no analysis needed.

It is reasonable to say the zonal flow will be too strong and low pressure not undercut any ridge, that is what we have seen other then one GEM until now after all. However how many of those predicting this foresaw even the opportunity and potential for blocking a few days ago?

 

GFS ensembles are massively different to what they were a couple of days ago by day 10.

Many have a ridge and some split flow/undercut but generally they force the pattern too far West for the UK to benefit or quickly overrun the blocking.

The question is are we still in the trend to back the pattern West and have more undercut?

Tomorrow will be a big day in that regard.

 

Edited December 12, 2019 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

A few Xmas Day ENS looking good.

 

P8 about best in deep FI 

 

Edited December 12, 2019 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS are a stonker - this the most extreme example.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS are a stonker - this the most extreme example.

Hopefully the trend to sending energy into Europe will be maintained and strengthened over the next 48hours

By fri/sat we will have a good idea ..

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS are a stonker - this the most extreme example.

What’s the uppers on that chart feb ? Please . 

[Ali1977]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

What’s the uppers on that chart feb ? Please . 

Cold 

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

 

Sorry m8 i didn't mention GFS, i meant across the NWP

Edited December 12, 2019 by Blessed Weather

[swfc]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

 

 

 

Sorry m8 i didn't mention GFS, i meant across the NWP

 thought they were gfs -ens.

Edited December 12, 2019 by Blessed Weather

[chris55]

31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS are a stonker - this the most extreme example.

Somethings afoot I’m telling ya!

Have been following the charts for getting on 15 years and I can see something brewing ......

My Christmas bag I had the decorations in sums it up....

 

[Frosty.]

Just been looking at the GEFS 12z postage stamps between christmas & new year and there's certainly increased snow potential!❄❄ 

[Anthony Burden]

GFS  2 meter temperature for London over Christmas period certainly not mild,mostly single figures.

Possible 3 day mild run up before festive period.Still time for change in medium to long range forecast 

as met office mentions.

[booferking]

Wee bit of snow Sunday .

[Panayiotis]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS are a stonker - this the most extreme example.

When the least extreme chart is that above then I will be happy

[MR EXTREMES]

blimey gefs,

talk about a tail of two extremes from very very wet and windy to cold snowy.

but the rainfall totals are a worry bigtime.

this low is stalling and its a pretty major winters start really.

 

[shaky]

Surprised no one has mentioned ecm t120 and 144 hour charts!low slides in the atlantic and looks like ukmo!!

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm brings in some milder weather.

but suspect pretty wet.

allsorts of shallow heights popping up here and there.

not on this chart but the ecm has the euro slug.

Edited December 12, 2019 by MR EXTREMES

[weatherguy]

10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Surprised no one has mentioned ecm t120 and 144 hour charts!low slides in the atlantic and looks like ukmo!!

The problem however is that, despite undercutting, the Canadian PV lobe throws out another LP right behind it which doesn't allow any WAA up the US east coast.  Interesting NH profile though with the gradual strengthening of the Arctic high.  We do need this to trigger upstream amplification however if we are to realistically benefit, otherwise we risk being stuck on the mild-muck side of the Euro block.

Edit: I was hoping to have a "BOOM" chart to discuss for my 500th post on here but, alas!

Edited December 12, 2019 by weatherguy

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

The problem however is that, despite undercutting, the Canadian PV lobe throws out another LP right behind it which doesn't allow any WAA up the US east coast.  Interesting NH profile though with the gradual strengthening of the Arctic high.  We do need this to trigger upstream amplification however if we are to realistically benefit, otherwise we risk being stuck on the mild-muck side of the Euro block.

Could certainly do with some amplification upstream around 18th but the window of opportunity will soon begin to close. I feel tomorrow evening will give us a much better picture of chances of blocking and cold for Xmas (obviously as we are closer, but you know what I mean)

[MR EXTREMES]

and at 192 we have the purple blob coming right at us must be a powerful jet strek coming bit further north.

but i wouldnt say its a done and dusted situation ed stone has plenty of prozac he be fine lol.

still a very interesting winter so far.

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

The problem however is that, despite undercutting, the Canadian PV lobe throws out another LP right behind it which doesn't allow any WAA up the US east coast.  Interesting NH profile though with the gradual strengthening of the Arctic high.  We do need this to trigger upstream amplification however if we are to realistically benefit, otherwise we risk being stuck on the mild-muck side of the Euro block.

Edit: I was hoping to have a "BOOM" chart to discuss for my 500th post on here but, alas!

I dont think this saga is over just yet!!could still see more improvements earlier on in the next few days!!still some snow potential over the next 5 days aswell!!also with a wave coming in from the continent between 96 and 120 hours could be some snowfall on western side of it!!