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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
3 minutes ago, swfc said:

GFS 6z looks at best average .slight and minimal heights to the north.further more and sadly more rain !!!

Very different to the ECM, hopefully the ECM is correct. 

14935EDE-A295-4201-A904-82D53B3A3CB5.png

47509E2D-6AEE-44AC-A739-10609999C0C6.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Very different to the ECM, hopefully the ECM is correct. 

14935EDE-A295-4201-A904-82D53B3A3CB5.png

47509E2D-6AEE-44AC-A739-10609999C0C6.png

Indeed.i think it's a big ask to get that low to the southwest to move south east but who knows.think the problem is that in the past GFS has been the ball breaker esp in winter.hopefully not going forward

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

GFS having none of it as usual, and re-invigorates the vortex instead:

image.thumb.png.76cdeb26f877b0eb63ec582695e030ec.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The Arctic High/wedge is the key to maybe getting any cold pre-Christmas. The GFS blocks that wedge from the Pacific heading across the Arctic fields where as the ECM allows it through. The GFS parks it in a most inconvenient place over the Arctic:

anim_tgm2.gif

So the tPV on our side of the NH is blocked in and regroups circulating to the north of the UK with the Atlantic HP cell train preventing any trough.

Still with a Pacific ridge forming after D9, and with that Arctic wedge maybe changing its route, there remains potential of a better synoptic developing, however, the 06z run is not in the UK Top 10 hope cast list.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Not a bad chart this, at least it would be cold for Christmas for a change, chance of some wintery showers too.

gfsnh-0-300.png

gfsnh-1-300.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, booferking said:

Dont quite get the Northerly this run put a cold Norther westerly for xmas cold one a that to.

Its a cold run for xmas eve and christmas day...

But so diff to EC so little confidence in anything still...

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its a cold run for xmas eve and christmas day...

But so diff to EC so little confidence in anything still...

Another cold NWly arrives just after Christmas, more snow showers on this one.

All a long way off of course, if only the Atlantic high could shift northwards a bit further it would be game on.

gfseu-0-372.png

gfseu-1-372.png

gfseu-2-372.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

One thing that has been app is the lack of any real eye candy in fi.threw November there seemed to be quite a few so I'm guessing till any real subtle changes from the ao-nao or forcing from the Pacific the offerings are going to be meagre cold and wintry wise.tbh just dry and bright would be ok for me over xmas

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

Perhaps the GFS is having none because it’s forecasting this!!

EC291ABD-C121-4D47-ACB3-C1EACAE71842.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
6 minutes ago, fromey said:

Perhaps the GFS is having none because it’s forecasting this!!

EC291ABD-C121-4D47-ACB3-C1EACAE71842.jpeg

Yes I've seen this and three more recently.sadly altho not full on zonal there does seem to be a pointer towards a west to east biased going forward up to the new year app.hopefully a change to something better asap!!!

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Hopefully, some tentative signs of a worthwhile pattern-change (Anyone got any straws!:oldgrin:) farther down the line; but, in the meantime, breezy weather with a chance of sleet showers doesn't really do it, for me:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

IMO, we need to see some deep, cold air within touching-distance, so those sub-10s, away to the east, northeast, do provide a small degree of solace...:clap:

It's only one run from only one model!:oldgood:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

6z GEFS starting to look more amplified than the 0z

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
16 minutes ago, fromey said:

Perhaps the GFS is having none because it’s forecasting this!!

EC291ABD-C121-4D47-ACB3-C1EACAE71842.jpeg

And yet what if the GFS is right I have a feeling it will be especially with the recent signs of the polar vortex strengthening

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Well would you believe it, the control comes out trumps again right at the end of the run.

gensnh-0-1-384.png

gensnh-0-0-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
18 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

time_lon_EQ_hf_sst_uwnd_anom_anom_201908_201912_2019121203.thumb.png.35a5774171ebc0215768246a61cfe995.png

Recent uptick in easterly zonal winds across the Equator was pathetically weak and transient. No way there's going to be any settled spell of the back of that, so current drift in op GFS and ensemble guidance suggesting a more unsettled theme look on the mark to me.

That tropical wind profile suggests a return to low frequency Indian Ocean Dipole forcing. Expect troughing centred over the UK and near continent to be the key feature, in tandem with a -AO regime with moderate +ve height tendencies to the north - but not enough to properly displace Arctic airmasses. 

if the continent can cool then we may be in the raffle with the trough meandering on a nw/se axis from our wnw.... it’s not a lost cause if we get the polar profile fairly relaxed to our north and ne in general .... not going to dispel thoughts of a possible wintry final  week of the year just yet .....

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Well would you believe it, the control comes out trumps again right at the end of the run.

gensnh-0-1-384.png

gensnh-0-0-384.png

Which will completely change next run, why bother even looking when there’s so much inconsistency between each model early on

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
31 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Hopefully, some tentative signs of a worthwhile pattern-change (Anyone got any straws!:oldgrin:) farther down the line; but, in the meantime, breezy weather with a chance of sleet showers doesn't really do it, for me:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

IMO, we need to see some deep, cold air within touching-distance, so those sub-10s, away to the east, northeast, do provide a small degree of solace...:clap:

It's only one run from only one model!:oldgood:

 

sleet!!! Luxury ed think I saw that once last winter.maybe a thread for sleet days recorded may derive a lot of interest!!!

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