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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
13 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM looking excellent this morning. A shame it is one of the lesser models.It is probably closer than GFS though. 

gemnh-0-228.png?00

 

What we really need is ECM to follow up and keep the trend going.

 

 

the GEM is a real gem it has to be said. Ever the optimist lol 

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I know it's the true depths of FI on the GFS but I don't think I have ever seen charts like it towards the end when it starts to pull in upper air temps like it is showing from Africa.. Silly charts.. Will look totally different on the 06z but can you imagine that.. How many all time high temps would probably be broken in December.. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
54 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM looking excellent this morning. A shame it is one of the lesser models.It is probably closer than GFS though. 

gemnh-0-228.png?00

 

What we really need is ECM to follow up and keep the trend going.

 

 

What a great chart, that could end up becoming an epic set up going into Christmas Day. If the ECM follows that, this place will be busier this morning!!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Not sure im getting the enthusiasm some are seeing with the GEM? Yes synoptically its nice to see some greens to our north but for the uk it doesnt mean muc. The uk is in possitive uppers. ECM is similar at 144 the atlantic low tilted favourably but troughs to the north of the uk form a wall preventing any cold uppers getting to the uk.

  

ECMOPEU00_168_1-2.png

ECMOPEU00_168_2.png

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Not sure im getting the enthusiasm some are seeing with the GEM? Yes synoptically its nice to see some greens to our north but for the uk it doesnt mean muc. The uk is in possitive uppers. ECM is similar at 144 the atlantic low tilted favourably but troughs to the north of the uk form a wall preventing any cold uppers getting to the uk.

  

ECMOPEU00_168_1-2.png

This is my take, that HP looks pretty potent and likely to strengthen due to a lack of encroaching PV - LPs look like l’y to slide underneath. 

56BC74DC-B07C-43CC-8813-42A0A5CB154F.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This is my take, that HP looks pretty potent and likely to strengthen due to a lack of encroaching PV - LPs look like l’y to slide underneath. 

56BC74DC-B07C-43CC-8813-42A0A5CB154F.jpeg

Yes that's I was thinking. But in reality we need the jet to buckle or head on a southerly track. Each time we get a slider it holds hope that some heights can build in the right areas. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I've seen these little features zip through before. Historically they have produced 2-4 inches of snow. So somewhere may get lucky...high ground favoured.

like this one, big difference though, we're warmer 21 years on, 0.2 degrees warmer can make all the difference between 6cms and nothing especially at low levels

archives-1998-1-5-12-0.png

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM much better than the GFS without being anything too exceptional....it's so different though that it's really unhelpful. GFS would lead to nothing. Ensembles not holding many clues either.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Gfs 0z operational there's certainly some snow potential during the coming days / nights..even Christmas day shows snow!❄

00_12_preciptype.thumb.png.e387af0f5a9a85b9f2d0017675cb8222.png00_54_preciptype.thumb.png.bf5bbd2e847825d4c781641645d07e59.png00_60_preciptype.thumb.png.70d283ea7b4825828e846b250379de18.png00_72_preciptype.thumb.png.5d30dfc1f4474ba83b32b1deb3a481b2.png00_90_preciptype.thumb.png.d2f062a3819b3b2acbe99d02af68e18b.png00_105_preciptype.thumb.png.5c39c3cd6d3360246eb3c7188032fb42.png00_324_preciptype.thumb.png.94c7ef9412ef3a019b3cd42675cfca41.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Morning .having looked threw the thread can't see any mention of the ukmo ?any thoughts

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
12 minutes ago, swfc said:

Morning .having looked threw the thread can't see any mention of the ukmo ?any thoughts

Very similar the the ECM, maybe the trough in the Atlantic is a little more vertical which may help with a more southerly Jet Stream under the building NH heights. The problem is FI is pretty early, so models not agreeing - GFS specifically. 

93845C6E-890A-4188-BDCF-F758274D4CA0.gif

AAE28061-58FD-4F00-B44D-7108AD6B7C11.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Sunday could be a bit of a hair-raiser? h500slp.png Not nice, anywho!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Defo better looking heights around Greenland and NH in general on this run, a step in the right direction!! 

C4D8F6BC-D40C-4506-8BFE-47DABD434D88.png

4AEFB5C2-FA20-4BE8-B589-8BABFE4E60DE.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

GFS 06Z

Saturday night?

Surely?

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.4a740b26dd7cc14751d135f4a7202c17.pngNENG9_SQ1_0000000099_N_A_SLf.thumb.jpg.598c801b681fb630f773adf2e9a28643.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
4 hours ago, Surrey said:

I know it's the true depths of FI on the GFS but I don't think I have ever seen charts like it towards the end when it starts to pull in upper air temps like it is showing from Africa.. Silly charts.. Will look totally different on the 06z but can you imagine that.. How many all time high temps would probably be broken in December.. 

I know it's a period best forgotten but you don't remember mid December 2015 anymore? 

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Archives NCEP de 1851 à maintenant

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

GFS 6z looks at best average .slight and minimal heights to the north.further more and sadly more rain possible !

Edited by swfc
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