Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[joggs]

6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Nice end to the Ecm ,like to see days 11 12 13

 

 

 

If it's cold you're after,disagree. Wrong side of the low and winter make it east past us then probably injected with more lows into the mid Atlantic.

[markw2680]

I for one don’t no whether I’m coming or going on here lol, one post says great ecm run next one says terrible. For the new ones on here they must be thinking stuff this it makes no sense 

[Ninman]

1 minute ago, joggs said:

The thing is though even if it's  negatively tilted like that and undercuts(big doubt)there's no cold to back west.

There is...it's just 3000 miles away.

At least there is no giant nectar card purple blob visiting Santa at the north pole. If we had that and the heights to the south, then it would be awful. At least we are in a semi-decent state for further developments down the line - just need some of these lows to dive bomb in to Europe

[The PIT]

Like I said Lala land not worth getting to stressed over. Probably totally different tomorrow.

[SMU]

NB 2013 5 days apart- similar high pressure ridging Nw & jet to the south

Horror chart to Narnia ...

[Methuselah]

Would you look at that? The GEFS ensembles (bar one clever 'option') still refuse to smell the coffee!

    

    

Maybe next-time they'll go to Costa Coffee instead of Starbucks!?

[Mike Poole]

Differing opinions on the ECM, tonight! 

I agree with @Steve Murr I think the T240 is a good chart considering where we are coming from. 

Not sure why people are complaining about the SE, the troughing looks headed there nicely.  Just a thought, I think that if we do see significant snowy outbreaks in the near future I don't think it will be from the usual suspects of a massive Greenland high or Scandi high, it will more likely be from wedges of highish pressure with an undercut or slider.  ECM good for me tonight.

[tight isobar]

Okay if your failed to be impressed by the ec 12z..withdrawal from 'the cold hunt thread is advisable'..

And we start to see my own craved scenario..

And elongated western lobe...and a cut sequence of adveting warmth into the chosen plots!!

It's screaming undercutting/and victorious momentum for placement of sync!!=again all from around 20/12/2019....heights format are as good as a leading player...as we now begin to gain.

The landlord is pi##ed...and it's soon to be happy hour....right in time for Christmas!!!!

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I for one don’t no whether I’m coming or going on here lol, one post says great ecm run next one says terrible. For the new ones on here they must be thinking stuff this it makes no sense 

If you look at that EC ten day chart it's mild and damp cant avoid that.it may be fi and it may go on in another week to bring 47synoptics.on day ten tho today it's poor in my limited opinion

Edited December 11, 2019 by swfc

[LRD]

This is not a cold chart for the UK

However, compared to the last couple of days-worth of ECM runs it's a pretty big improvement. Arctic heights, the Azores High is a bit suppressed south and lows getting to Italy are all positives.

And some of those positives can be seen in the more realistic time frame too. Only problem here is the SE Europe high pressure

These promising signs might be a blip or they might not be

Edited December 11, 2019 by LRD

[Anthony Burden]

ECM 216 and 240 looking a lot less mild for most of England and Scotland,Temperatures a little above average

for a few days only.Most days upto the 21st December in single figures in most parts of U.K. Christmas up 

for grabs regarding cold average mild dry or wet.

[SMU]

ECM 3 hour snowfall for Sat eve

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, LRD said:

This is not a cold chart for the UK

However, compared to the last couple of days-worth of ECM runs it's a pretty big improvement. Arctic heights, the Azores High is a bit suppressed south and lows getting to Italy are all positives.

And some of those positives can be seen in the more realistic time frame too. Only problem here is the SE Europe high pressure

These promising signs might be a blip or they might not be

Okay...take the vortices placements/and imagine your looking at a Rolex watch...for linear movement..and ample phasing..

If we could run the sequence from the above snaps...you'd likely be bouncing off your walls at home...and end up with a night in rampton hospital....if wintery gain is your-desire!!!..

All in a nutshell ..(no pun intended).

That's some serious dynamic evolution....to carry forwards..shame some cannot fathom it...

Edited December 11, 2019 by tight isobar

[markw2680]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 3 hour snowfall for Sat eve

The only thing that’s don’t look good there is the 1% battery, how do you cope lol.

could be quite a surprise come Sunday morning for central areas 

[swfc]

Just has a side note there have been numerous posts stick with the ukmo up to 144hrs after that it's fi.Id agree with that for sure.the EC has just finished and folk are bigin up an average looking ten day chart??? I'm wanting cold and snow but surely you can't move the goal posts every run!?!enjoy

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Okay...take the vortices placements/and imagine your looking at a Rolex watch...for linear movement..and ample phasing..

If we could run the sequence from the above snaps...you'd likely be bouncing off your walls at home...and end up with a night in rampton hospital....if wintery gain is your-desire!!!..

All in a nutshell ..(no pun intended).

That's some serious dynamic evolution....to carry forwards..shame some cannot fathom it...

Well I wish I could I'd be a millionaire by now

[Geordiesnow]

I think there is a few trends appearing in the models. 

PV over Greenland and parts  of Canada is weakening, not by a huge amount but much less purples than it is now. 

Arctic high is set to establish across the pole, whether it ridges towards Svalbard and has any affect on our weather remains to be seen. 

There is a strong trend towards a Euro ridge so the threat of much milder air heading our way is there. 

All in all not much sign of cold and snow but as ever keep an eye on the output as it can change. 

[ArHu3]

 

Now only if we got a slight modification of that EC +216h chart

 

so that it would look a bit more like this

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, ArHu3 said:

 

Now only if we got a slight modification of that EC +216h chart

 

 

so that it would look a bit more like this

 

I could easily see the heights backing the pattern and extending nearer to Greenland like 1979, everything to the West of the meridian is perfectly feasible, the part i cannot see changing is that brutal air to the East magically appearing or the air being cold enough on the NE flank of the low, i presume that is the chart that went on to give an almighty blizzard not long after.

[SMU]

9 minutes ago, swfc said:

Just has a side note there have been numerous posts stick with the ukmo up to 144hrs after that it's fi.Id agree with that for sure.the EC has just finished and folk are bigin up an average looking ten day chart??? I'm wanting cold and snow but surely you can't move the goal posts every run!?!enjoy

Non comprende 

Its just discussion & debate. Nobody is saying its going to happen- just the range of possibilities. Nothing more nothing less. No goal post moving. Just plain old discussion - Just the same since 2005.

 

[Sweatyman]

40 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I for one don’t no whether I’m coming or going on here lol, one post says great ecm run next one says terrible. For the new ones on here they must be thinking stuff this it makes no sense 

youre not alone mate! KRO

[swfc]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Non comprende 

Its just discussion & debate. Nobody is saying its going to happen- just the range of possibilities. Nothing more nothing less. No goal post moving. Just plain old discussion - Just the same since 2005.

 

Ah ok.does that include GFS tia

[Mike Poole]

JMA following ECM it seems, here T192:

Cold air not there though, as expected, but would follow if the pattern got established.  But why are fairly hefty lows undercutting modest ridges, well here's the jetstream at the same time:

A. Strong, and B. Well south.  I think this is going to be the case for a while, so what we consider in terms of cold synoptics showing up on the models needs to factor this in, it is unusual.

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean looks to have plenty members following the op to me, here T192:

Hinting at the undercut, and higher heights over the polar region, here T240:

Obviously the mean at T240 less easy to read, one other thing, no raging purple thing over Greenland is there?

[SMU]

8 minutes ago, swfc said:

Ah ok.does that include GFS tia

The GFS is always third in the pile ( sometimes 4th ) underneath UKMO > ECM.