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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

ECM already with the rather impressive polar heights even compared to the UKMO at 120. 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

ECM already with the rather impressive polar heights even compared to the UKMO at 120. 

I think the heights to the south are the problem snowman

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

ECM already with the rather impressive polar heights even compared to the UKMO at 120. 

Yes this is a great chart from the ECM at T144, could be a good run this.:oldgood:

ECH1-144.png

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Better artic heights on the ECM . Compared with T168 12z yesterday to T144 today . Today’s first pic 

4F810AF8-E443-4982-87DA-1BEBB3DB8C0B.png

4394A107-C4FA-492F-B6D8-167C180EE969.png

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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted
2 hours ago, swfc said:

Not much to report on the 12z so far today imo.heights to the south grinding my gears tbh!!!

Well it’s colder. And not zonal muck. 

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted (edited)

Lala land T192 doesn't look great between the number one model and number three. Thankfully it's lala land so hopefully won't verify.

Edited by The PIT
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
13 minutes ago, swfc said:

I think the heights to the south are the problem snowman

How do you think you get rid of heights south? With a bit of forcing from the north!

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Lala land doesn't look great between the number one model and number three. Thankfully it's lala land so hopefully won't verify.

???

Thats looking pretty good to me

The amplification backing west every day at the moment- now negative tilted -

1AAC9884-DC56-4A6C-8ED2-6E8193FF3F66.thumb.png.4be52bed6fae6ae18b6c1da7ecef26ba.png

Edited by Steve Murr
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Lala land doesn't look great between the number one model and number three. Thankfully it's lala land so hopefully won't verify.

Not sure about that ECM looks like it’s going for a Scandi high

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

How do you think you get rid of heights south? With a bit of forcing from the north!

I don't just mean the EC and the low to the west.the heights are a recurring theme so I guess it's wait and see

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192, looks as though this might slide?  Interesting.

image.thumb.jpg.a98228ab4b673ad0fb4e5efdfe1b3c89.jpg

The mild continent is the problem, end up with the dreaded mild easterly. 

ECH0-192.png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
5 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Well it’s colder. And not zonal muck. 

Your point is?I never mentioned zonal or temps.was commenting on the run or 12z-6z.crack on

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Need the low to undercut big time, can HP build to our NE?

ECE1-216.png

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weatherguy Aficionado

weatherguy

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
Posted

image.thumb.png.152ef6262c736c7bc1bba06dc81985b1.png

Interesting 216 ECM, very elongated atlantic trough, potentially sending the Jet down south east in subsequent frames while HP rises northwards from the US perhaps?

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
1 minute ago, snowray said:

The mild continent is the problem, end up with the dreaded mild easterly. 

ECH0-192.png

Gotta give it a chance!! Continent doesn’t just exist in a constant cold once the block is up sufficiently we’re the end of the line when it comes to cold so it would take the longest. 

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Horrible ECM.

The model seems to have completely backed off the idea of a sceuro high ...

Those heights to the SE are a winter killer.

 

 

Just looked at the 216 chart what heights to the south east

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Horrible ECM.

The model seems to have completely backed off the idea of a sceuro high ...

Those heights to the SE are a winter killer.

 

 

Indeed we end up in SW winds and wet.scandinavia would eventually end up in a mild se wind.im sure it will be a baby steps job coming up but that 240hr chart is poor as it stands.its actually colder today than day 10,hence the longe range forecast

Edited by swfc
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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

No slider, but a far better run over all with potential for sure, got to start somewhere. At least the Euro/Azores hights have shifted out of the way.

ECM1-240.gif

Edited by snowray
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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

???

Thats looking pretty good to me

The amplification backing west every day at the moment- now negative tilted -

1AAC9884-DC56-4A6C-8ED2-6E8193FF3F66.thumb.png.4be52bed6fae6ae18b6c1da7ecef26ba.png

The thing is though even if it's  negatively tilted like that and undercuts(big doubt)there's no cold to back west.

Edit,yes the low just barrels around out west again..............as others say, the high in Europe is a killer.

Edited by joggs
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, joggs said:

The thing is though even if it's  negatively tilted like that and undercuts(big doubt)there's no cold to back west.

Edit,yes the low just barrels around out west again..............as others say, the high in Europe is a killer.

Its not about day 10 its about 11 + 12

As long as the jet keeps to the south that high ( if held in situ ) can back the cold west-

I need to go back through the archives we had a great easterly develop this way ( think 2013 )

The italian cut off low & high tilted to the NW is a good start point

Edited by Steve Murr
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