Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[feb1991blizzard]

[StretfordEnd1996]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That's really given us a strong signal! 

Bottom chart looks a tad more interesting, maybe? Possibly? 

[Dennis]

well i give it a shot this year to a winter chanche at christmas-days

Edited December 9, 2019 by Dennis

[markw2680]

41 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z out now, only goes to T120, here for comparison with 12z, 18z left:

Looks more amplified to me, look in particular at the developing low east US, considerably deeper on 18z.

I admire you looking for positives there but to me that really is like polishing a turd. I really hope things start to improve because in reality it’s not looking great atm. Thankfully these models change more than my underpants so there’s plenty of small things that could change and lead to much better outcomes.

[Hotspur62]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would say pretty inconclusive looking at that!!Its sitting on the fence.

[Mike Poole]

GFS following ICON at T120:

Let's see how this one rolls...

[StretfordEnd1996]

5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I admire you looking for positives there but to me that really is like polishing a turd. I really hope things start to improve because in reality it’s not looking great atm. Thankfully these models change more than my underpants so there’s plenty of small things that could change and lead to much better outcomes.

I'll refrain from asking how often you change them then. 

In truth I don't think they've actually changed all that much in the last few days or so - models flipping and flopping to me would suit the definition of showing a freezing cold NE'ly one day and then a horrid W'ly the next run.. I don't think we're really seeing that

This is a pretty flat looking chart from the ECM and it just feels as though its plausible to me. But if that were to come off - the end result of all that HP a week or so down the line could be interesting?

[damianslaw]

Lots of weather in the days ahead, bit of everything, heavy rain,strong winds, wintry precipitation for the north possibly some snow for low levels at times, frost as well. All very standard for mid December.

As we approach the run up to christmas (17th-20th), models suggesting atlantic coming unstuck against a building of euro heights, which would bring a NW-SE split, and milder air from the south/south west. Where we then go who knows, but there are signs these heights could build quite substantively towards and through the UK, and might settle into a position to bring some cold anticyclonic frosty conditions just as head into christmas proper. 

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I admire you looking for positives there but to me that really is like polishing a turd. I really hope things start to improve because in reality it’s not looking great atm. Thankfully these models change more than my underpants so there’s plenty of small things that could change and lead to much better outcomes.

I'm looking for positives because unlike some, I am by no means convinced that it is all doom and gloom here.  I think it is easy to put the long range models, some comments on twitter, and recent det runs together to give a false prospectus of the winter weather to come.  Until every det run and most of the ensembles show a raging trop vortex over Greenland, there is a possibility of something snowy showing up at quite short range in the current set up.  We will see...

[markw2680]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm looking for positives because unlike some, I am by no means convinced that it is all doom and gloom here.  I think it is easy to put the long range models, some comments on twitter, and recent det runs together to give a false prospectus of the winter weather to come.  Until every det run and most of the ensembles show a raging trop vortex over Greenland, there is a possibility of something snowy showing up at quite short range in the current set up.  We will see...

Completely agree, I for one think that interesting things will all of a sudden crop up rather than count down from that place called fantasy land.

theres to many that see poor charts crop up and get excited at the thought of posting on here saying that’s it until the new year etc etc. When in reality there’s More chance of a sudden change Than it all working like clockwork.

keep up the good posts mate 

[Mike Poole]

GFS T192, looks like a slider, but under what??!

There's no block there!  T850s disappointing at this point:

But that could change, the architect of all of this is the jet stream:

Unusually far south if that strong...expect the unexpected from now on...

[CanadaAl]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T192, looks like a slider, but under what??!

There's no block there!  T850s disappointing at this point:

But that could change, the architect of all of this is the jet stream:

Unusually far south if that strong...expect the unexpected from now on...

I'm taking anything past Dec 15 with an enormous barrel of salt at this point. It makes for entertaining viewing at least

[Mike Poole]

Given recent model output, I wonder if people might actually be quite surprised at the ECM 12z ensemble clusters, here T240:

Pretty much a 50:50 shot there, and it is a shift, as they say, the trend is your friend.  T360:

the go to scenario for cold at 27%.  

This, for me is a massive upgrade on recent model output...

[Tim Bland]

I spy a possible Boom FI ? ....

[topo]

The setup for northern Iceland is totally insane for tomorrow. 

12bf winds and over 100mm of precipitation as snow

A unique event even for Iceland

[frosty ground]

Rather odd setup at 300 hours little surface high to our north east

[joggs]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Rather odd setup at 300 hours little surface high to our north east

Any chance of a chart?.

Thanks. 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, joggs said:

Any chance of a chart?.

Thanks. 

Not far off a scandi high and sliding low ... perhaps it’s a faux high

Edited December 9, 2019 by Tim Bland

[SMU]

18z Christmas eve Highs of around 3-4c & winds in the East

Nice.

( end of the run similar to 2012 ? East winds & very cold mainly dry )

Edited December 9, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Northwest NI]

37 minutes ago, topo said:

The setup for northern Iceland is totally insane for tomorrow. 

12bf winds and over 100mm of precipitation as snow

A unique event even for Iceland

The info I’m getting is 100 CENTIMETRES of snow 

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/bombogenesis-cyclone-iceland-extreme-snowfall-hurricane-winds-mk/

Edited December 9, 2019 by Northwest NI

[booferking]

17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

18z Christmas eve Highs of around 3-4c & winds in the East

Nice.

( end of the run similar to 2012 ? East winds & very cold mainly dry )

Na id prefer ens5 to be honest.

[Duane S.]

18z Ens continues interest around Christmas time. A real mixed bag with some festive crackers in amongst...

[feb1991blizzard]

29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

18z Christmas eve Highs of around 3-4c & winds in the East

Nice.

( end of the run similar to 2012 ? East winds & very cold mainly dry )

Think this was a little better.

 

A good few members dropping at the end of both suites, nothing pipe bursting yet but an improvement over last 2 days modelling.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

18z Ens continues interest around Christmas time. A real mixed bag with some festive crackers in amongst...

Ens11 would be white Christmas for many front moving South backedge snow event countrywide.

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening gang,late to the party

the models are now showing in fl for Christmas day and is 16 days away,Christ this year has gone quick hasn't it!

the de-built ens are starting to show interest if a continental flow is to be believed,there is some getting to -10 towards the end,a day or two ago they was showing nothing of a sort,it would be nice to tap into this cold come the festive period

the NAO/AO esp AO are showing signs of going neg 

and the control run out to Christmas day is looking seasonal.

gefs ens,there is some cold ones in there too.

still all speculative at 16 days out,my money would be on a UK high with frost and fog but i wouldn't put my house on it.

give it week and then the fog might become clearer for Christmas week.

 

 

Edited December 9, 2019 by Allseasons-si