Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[NL]

3 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

I wont.

It's FI.

It's a waste of time.

It will not verify.

Absolutely, this is what last years prediction for Christmas day on this day(9th) forcasted a potent northerly when in fact we got a mild southerly.

[mountain shadow]

37 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

312 hours away 

True, but the chart reflects a more likely scenario as GP has just attested to. 

[Methuselah]

And, anywho, there's still plenty of wiggle-room within the GEFS 06Z ensembles:

    

    

[tight isobar]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

And, anywho, there's still plenty of wiggle-room within the GEFS 06Z ensembles:

    

    

Yep that op..certainly on the milder side of things....

So all gravy imo!

[Dennis]

to -35 at 5km

[Iceaxecrampon]

58 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Yep that op..certainly on the milder side of things....

So all gravy imo!

Well  - looking at that  - this weekend is the only shot to get out in anything wintery and that's if you can stay on your feet.From then on as regards pressure the only way is up.

 

[Dennis]

well not to pinpoint on that but some signs.......AO/NAO forecast

[Ali1977]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

And, anywho, there's still plenty of wiggle-room within the GEFS 06Z ensembles:

    

    

That’s a real drop off in 2m temps, 4 ENS actually look like ice days!! Interesting to see, hopefully that trend keeps up and the Op follows. 

[SLEETY]

That high pressure at the end of GFS looks like building north,and could go on to develop an easterly further down the line.

Still pointless discussing at that range ,but the trend for high pressure and dry weather is building

[Mucka]

I'm a little surprised about some of the comments on the ECM day 10 chart, it is a good chart, the problem is it is FI.

It shows WAA about to push into the heart Arctic with an already disrupted PV. The pattern could be overrun and flatten but with a Southerly tacking jet and on that particular chart I don't think so. Still it is FI so won't over analyse.

 

Below are the last 3 00z runs for Dec 15th.

• 1. Check the progression of the trough digging SE through central Europe.
• 2. Note the Atlantic trough is held out further West each time.
• 3.Note the improving Arctic profile

 

This is all evidence of the Atlantic slowing which can allow for more amplification in the pattern.

Okay all that said, we are still a long way from cold blocking pattern. I don't want to mislead newbies, but if you want cold weather patterns or at least a slackening of the zonal flow then these are positive signs.

Time-frames are difficult. In a previous post I said the period from 16th to 19th was where to watch for changes in the output from the relentless zonal flow they and been showing and I think that is till about right.

That doesn't mean we will have blocking in place by then, it just means we may see the output moving away from the very zonal flow and currently that seems to be the case.

Now it is a case of hoping those signals continue strengthen as being FI they can easily be swept away.

[Dennis]

ICON12z

Edited December 9, 2019 by Dennis

[TSNWK]

21 minutes ago, Dennis said:

ICON12z

Thanks 1st chart has a little interest I might suggest with a " wedge " between the two PV lobes to our north and Canada! - not sure if trending in the right direction? also I don’t recognise nor understand 2nd & 3rd charts.

Any thoughts please team?

[Dennis]

9 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thanks 1st chart has a little interest I might suggest with a " wedge " between the two PV lobes to our north and Canada! - not sure if trending in the right direction? also I don’t recognise nor understand 2nd & 3rd charts.

Any thoughts please team?

On charts 2/3 you see the west move of that wedge ....the pattern will change if it has the right position to bring cold air to west Europe- 

Edited December 9, 2019 by Dennis

[SMU]

Afternoon - 
 

Crimbo period looking interesting - but at this stage a mix of all the right reasons as well as all wrong reasons!

 

Anyway UKMO 96 looks interesting >> Possibly some wintryness associated with the back edge !

[feb1991blizzard]

Snow! - 2 consecutive runs - this time further South as well - a slither of -6c involved.

[Ali1977]

That low in the N Atlantic looking more slidey on this run at 186 vs 192 06z

[frosty ground]

Changes are a foot!

[Weathizard]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Changes are a foot!

One thing that doesn’t change is that piece of energy Canada that will keep spewing energy towards us. It’s a messy outlook really.

[Ali1977]

Day 10 and the heights in North Africa are much weaker, hopefully the trend of them pushing up into Europe has gone this run.

[frosty ground]

10 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

One thing that doesn’t change is that piece of energy Canada that will keep spewing energy towards us. It’s a messy outlook really.

Whilst the polar region is being moved about the mid term remains in doubt.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Day 10 and the heights in North Africa are much weaker, hopefully the trend of them pushing up into Europe has gone this run.

Its awful mate.

Flat as a pancake and copious amounts of rainfall, no thanks ..

[daz_4]

Disgusting. Lows spinning over Atlantic, HP sitting over Europe. Another December down the drain, barring a Christmas miracle.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Disgusting. Lows spinning over Atlantic, HP sitting over Europe. Another December down the drain, barring a Christmas miracle.

While i agree with the sentiment it is but one GFS op- of course we do not want to see this kind of run verify.Might look totally different next run

[StretfordEnd1996]

I'm more eagerly awaiting the GEFS ensembles than op runs at this current moment in time - got a feeling most GFS ops for the next 5 days or so are going to churn up some stinky looking charts - have a feeling that any 'change' towards the Christmas period will be picked up by the ensembles first.

That above isn't particularly nice to look at though!

[tight isobar]

35 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

One thing that doesn’t change is that piece of energy Canada that will keep spewing energy towards us. It’s a messy outlook really.

Not with a squeeze/elongated rouge lobe...

Trust me...that's a start....ya need...in the hunt for cold...especially with other dynamic involvement!