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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Not sure if you quoted the wrong post? My post meant that it’s impossible to have any confidence  as they are completely different ??‍♂️

Sorry Tim, yes misinterpreted your post.  

Signs of a possible change of fortune on GEM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.1ce58bb534c4017a9bb3a467cd1affdc.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7ffea326ac2b072ab8f281847d64122c.jpg

But it looks nailed on that we've got 10 days of wet and windy, or stormy weather to get through.  Some would have you believe it's 50 days, but I'm not getting involved in that.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
13 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Don’t think they have a clue atm tbh so should all be taken with a massive pinch of salt, let’s see how the next few days unfold and we will have a better idea how the weekend will be shaping up

fwiw I quite like the look of the ukmo 120

do you not think the 144 hrs on gfs  and ukmo are very similar?

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
49 minutes ago, swfc said:

think ido just covered this

Did he? I think I'd like to see analysis of a much larger dataset over a much longer period before drawing any such conclusions...

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, ribster said:

Did he? I think I'd like to see analysis of a much larger dataset over a much longer period before drawing any such conclusions...

just an observation ie think.crack on

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

So where are we today?

  • The UK is in for a period of Atlantic dominated weather, but with winds largely from north of west so chilly, wet and to all purposes the worst kind of weather. Ho hum.
  • Strong jet stream aimed at us, but it misses goes south, GFS T96:

image.thumb.jpg.ffd5e32c106edde8c27c33daeedf4fff.jpg

  • Trop vortex showing no signs across the model suite of getting its act together, in that worst place, Greenland, e.g. GFS T336:

image.thumb.jpg.50ce7a522c4982b0a048cf6a173aae09.jpg

  • Strat vortex becoming stronger, but is only the FV3 GFS that wants to take it into the mesosphere...(sic!)...it looks like this model has a strat bias...

image.thumb.jpg.839df9a6de9bb606d8788b2904b4af6b.jpg

  • Outlook, for the south anyway, wet, windy. but some snow on back edges of low pressure systems, maybe.  More snow opportunities up north obviously.
  • I think it is worth pointing out at this stage, that there was value in pursuing signals from the models for early winter cold, despite the long range model predictions, but we are now in for the long slog, but I'm more optimistic than some, with the jet south of us, there are possibilities, and then, later, maybe some help from the strat.  

All the best

Mike

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
23 minutes ago, swfc said:

do you not think the 144 hrs on gfs  and ukmo are very similar?

Ukmo has much better nw flow and not quite as flat to me

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
7 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Ukmo has much better nw flow and not quite as flat to me

ECM follows UKMO, even by 120 look at the diff on the jet stream around France, prob digging 500 miles further south on the ECM - like the UKMO .

6472406D-7EA7-4999-BF47-A377597AF1E9.png

D0458168-A9D3-4DF8-B726-26A34FB0233B.png

91E635E8-392A-44A3-8B40-C633239737B2.gif

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM v UKMO T120:

image.thumb.jpg.ddccaf9fb96bef41771d7f4f375023bb.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a53302d4c2a5f71de4986d1715a7ffe0.jpg

ECM makes more of the euro trough to me, but otherwise similar, looks to me so far like a better run, we'll see...

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Just now, Ali1977 said:

ECM follows UKMO, even by 120 look at the diff on the jet stream around France, prob digging 500 miles further south on the ECM - like the UKMO 

6472406D-7EA7-4999-BF47-A377597AF1E9.png

D0458168-A9D3-4DF8-B726-26A34FB0233B.png

The ukmo/ecm raw steadfast in pinging the jet south..

And still the arctic high notable...

Tbh...we need every bit off of the bone atm...

So I'm meat picking here!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T144 v UKMO

image.thumb.jpg.1103d7e5ad8815ef83df43ca9f4c242d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c8ef9fbe72bd31c9d8d45807fbcba48f.jpg

The main point of interest again is the intrusion of the trough into Europe on the ECM, this is a good sign.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Still a NW/SE (just)  tilt at 144 on the ECM, unlike the GFS. PV weaker in Greenland and heights stronger in NW Russia 

2F7E0A2C-AEE2-402E-9F1A-528605686509.png

8379EC58-6AD2-471C-B3FF-F1536405E151.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

^^^^ The ECM 0z pushed the trough further south but it made little difference after D6, the ECM 0z similar to the GFS. I think the ship has sailed for anything to develop after D6 as there has been a consistent change to how the Azores high/wave is handled. When we had all those wintry charts it was because the Azores High was displaced west, but in the last few days the Azores High is squeezed under/through the trough eastwards, eroding the trough as it does. That is why the GFS has been showing the euro high/wave in FI.

 

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

December saving grace...'or not'?!=

The Russian high needs forcing and a link to the arctic high...or its rinse repeat PM/cool-zonal...it's that simple now...although the signs are there...and a possible notion it still is !!!

 

 

 

 

Edit:= "

Screenshot_2019-12-08-18-30-24.png

ECH1-168 (2).gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

ec at 168 hours looks pretty average to me ? there is no ridging really to pull in anything to raise interest and winds come from the south west be it originating from a cooler nnw.nothing unusual for dec imo

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The UKMO as pointed out performs moderately, at best, in scenarios like this. The 12z D6 verification sees in the last 7-10 days it perform well below ECM and is beaten every day by GFS, unheard of in other scenarios. It cannot be relied upon at D6 in the current setup unfortunately:

cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.a03474b3e51e56f0b4fa4199d7470638.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
1 minute ago, swfc said:

ec at 168 hours looks pretty average to me ? there is no ridging really to pull in anything to raise interest and winds come from the south west be it originating from a cooler nnw.nothing unusual for dec imo

It is big picture and straws. Improving Arctic profile with potential Scandi ridge and Atlantic ridge in afore mentioned time period.

Continuation of zonal conditions currently strongly favoured but Euro models just sniffing out the possibility of pattern change.

It is all we (cold lovers) have at them moment

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Will we see the pincer treatment on the ecm from Russian/Atlantic hp cells(red arrows) forcing the LP further south in future runs?

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.4bfdc19fa2c9469906581849c6d2bc0d.gif

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That is complete and utter nonsense, a few third singnifcant figure points on a statistic at T144, to clarify, as I follow these statistics regularly and UKMO verifies better than GFS.

Gfs...is ALWAYS 3rd in verification...especially @144-onwards..

Taking into account ukmo stops at that point...but overall...again gfs is the third rater...'overall!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs...is ALWAYS 3rd in verification...especially @144-onwards..

Taking into account ukmo stops at that point...but overall...again gfs is the third rater...'overall!

so where does that leave the 12z ec because its pretty rank looking imo lol

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

That is complete and utter nonsense, a few third singnifcant figure points on a statistic at T144, to clarify, as I follow these statistics regularly and UKMO verifies better than GFS.

I am not referring to the final 31 day average, but to the last 10 plots marking each daily 12z verification.

Clearly you did not read what I wrote, I did say it usually performs far better than the GFS but in that period performed consistently worse. How can you apply that and say it performs better than GFS in these setups? Also, it on several runs was verifying at a major variance below ECM suggesting compared to the ECM D6 it is extremely poor since the cold spell was forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Nice charts...For any time between March and October, that is!:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Chance of verifying? Close to zero? Phew!!:clap:

That has got October written all over it. Halloween 2014 for example. Only the uppers are more indicative of December warmth rather than October warmth.

Other than that, all very boring on the model front still. The benefit of your chart above would be something drier for the south at least.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, swfc said:

so where does that leave the 12z ec because its pretty rank looking imo lol

Lol...Yeah no s##t....

At least...there are some odds and ends to grasp..

But in reality now we need quite an overhaul in synoptics for any real countrywide intrest!!..

And all eyes on russia...and the arctic...

But the chase is weakening!!!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Lol...Yeah no s##t....

At least...there are some odds and ends to grasp..

But in reality now we need quite an overhaul in synoptics for any real countrywide intrest!!..

And all eyes on russia...and the arctic...

But the chase is weakening!!!

haha keep up the hunt TI your posts are much appreciated.i think the overhaul you mention may need a thermal nuclear device but who knows going forward.for me the rest of December into jan looks unsettled and cool. I could be wrong hopefully

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
18 minutes ago, IDO said:

I am not referring to the final 31 day average, but to the last 10 plots marking each daily 12z verification.

Clearly you did not read what I wrote, I did say it usually performs far better than the GFS but in that period performed consistently worse. How can you apply that and say it performs better than GFS in these setups? Also, it on several runs was verifying at a major variance below ECM suggesting compared to the ECM D6 it is extremely poor since the cold spell was forecast.

Nice try.

The last ten data points have nothing to do with the weather that is going on now, nor does  it depend the implosion of the election day snow storm for that matter, they merely rate to the performance of the the model on the previous days.  Here's the chart you posted, verification stats at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.95eda4b32884d47603e26cd8d8d68840.jpg

It s pointing to days before now, today, not the period were talking about.  And if you think that UKM score of 0.911 and GFS at 0.917 are statistically different you want to brush up on your maths, mate.

edit. Just like the election. FAKE NEWS. I'm so sick of it...

Edited by Mike Poole
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