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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

This would go on to give an extremely cold Xmas day, probably ice day for most!! Very festive.

6F789ED4-C4AA-47B8-A489-40A32FDD1BB2.png

8FDB53F7-5548-4F16-B1BA-35368C308B8B.png
 

Maybe this would need the HP a few hundred miles North on closer inspection 

95C3FFE3-C9C6-4197-851A-A40F509051BB.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This would go on to give an extremely cold Xmas day, probably ice day for most!! Very festive.

6F789ED4-C4AA-47B8-A489-40A32FDD1BB2.png

8FDB53F7-5548-4F16-B1BA-35368C308B8B.png
 

Maybe this would need the HP a few hundred miles North on closer inspection 

95C3FFE3-C9C6-4197-851A-A40F509051BB.png

You forgot the JFF bit Ali ......

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - cold, summer - not hot
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands

These latest GFS outputs remind me of last December - forever tempting us (well, cold lovers anyway...) with cold charts just a little further out in FI. And we all know what happened last year don't we.

 

image.thumb.png.c0e3dcf2582a7f932c0d6b541c6dd82b.png

Will this verify?  Nah

 

image.thumb.png.e8d4d817f37d171d87a9aa51b46601d5.png

OK, but surely this has some chance?  Lol no.

 

Maybe 2020-21 will deliver some festive cold.

Edited by Mr TOAD
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
31 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Steve

 

168 for 12z?  I think that would show further improvement....as I think UKMO has been very steadily bringing a cold scenario in

 

BFTP

If it is, then it is pretty much on its own. The GEFS suggest a NW/W'ly airstream bringing cooler temps. Variation on this theme amongst them, from a more sustained colder flow to just a cold pool just below zero (T850's). The mean at:

T168: 955713069_gens-21-0-168(1).thumb.png.fcc8202532046094a9af3a8c73b8ed6f.png At T216: gens-21-0-216.thumb.png.dfe57e1dbf3b5024b00ee6acf55a65c9.png

This has been modelled by the GEFS for a while now. The GEM is now on board for this flow. Some GEFS have more amplified mini-ridges so maybe in the zonal flow a low cell mixing in a more northerly flow. not sure how and why you think the UKMO is going off on a tangent with a colder outlook?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's a lot of wintry potential in the GEFS 12z, especially around the mid Dec period when snow could fall just about anywhere!!❄⛄

snow_210_ps_slp.thumb.png.07c5a7525c02ffb8215a91f76bb1cac6.png2m_maxtemp_216_ps_slp.thumb.png.82f00ab5ebbbfe200189d41bd721c192.png850tempuk_216_ps_slp.thumb.png.da56880059dea1fb07044946b95e5705.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Alas though, Jon...the snowy runs are submerged under a smorgasbord of grot...

t850Leicestershire.png    prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png    prcpLeicestershire.png

What's more -- the GFS operationals are, as per usual, flapping around like sheets in the wind?:help:

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

That slither of HP to our north looking more pronounced on the ECM at T144, might be an ok run this to save the day?:oldgood:

ECH1-144.png

ECH0-144.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The NH defo getting messed up here.

55403B95-2963-4CBC-B2B9-CEEB061E3E20.png

Ideed.possibly the only positive I can take  so far from the runs today is the weakening of the pv. hopefully them gaps may induce some heighths along thw way 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Comparing the day 6 and 9 around greeny shows some potential 

74A64FEC-3FAD-47EB-97D9-F28884C92369.thumb.png.f984cfc98f5d268beb64180db6d64ff5.png  77D53D30-0C5E-402D-9BE4-37241BB1E3E7.thumb.png.c6e9d8aa92a0fde46b37e63e7a6e7958.png

Yes, the Arctic wedge doing some warming out before D10 so the tPV vortex's become less potent. However the Arctic wedge dissolves after T240 and the GFS has the tPV regrouping. The ECM hints at that demise (A-wedge) in its run, unfortunately.

We will therefore have to await another Pacific ridge to restart that potential. Not sure that we have those background signals to get a more amplified NH before late December.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

After Sundays deep depression, the possibility of another deep low heading to the UK is very high, looking forward too see if the models do indeed show one. 

Shame any polar WNWlies that the models are showing are looking quite weak upper air temperature wise as that kink in the isobars could easily develop into a prolonged spell check of PPN which could of fallen as snow somewhere but not too be, at least at this stage. 

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Posted
  • Location: newent glos. 50 metres asl
  • Location: newent glos. 50 metres asl
15 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

After Sundays deep depression, the possibility of another deep low heading to the UK is very high, looking forward too see if the models do indeed show one. 

Shame any polar WNWlies that the models are showing are looking quite weak upper air temperature wise as that kink in the isobars could easily develop into a prolonged spell check of PPN which could of fallen as snow somewhere but not too be, at least at this stage. 

Those PM shots will pack more if punch in January  I can assure you

 

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Def some wintry potential there for more areas of the country- a shame it's in FI. Also would that later timeframe not lead to an Easterly over Christmas/Boxing day??❄☃️

gfs-0-348.png

gfs-0-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Will the met office name Tuesday/Wednesday's low? They've seemed very reluctant to name storms of late despite issuing amber warnings.

Let's see what they do next week if this doesn't weaken/move north

U72-21UK.thumb.gif.af8ca786a09697fbb92b84137c358055.gifU96-21UK.thumb.gif.cd8c5b30ed060092af230e1824085ed4.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Here are the results of those GEFS ensemble scenarios with height rises to the NE that were happening up until the 12z today.

image.thumb.png.f0e81768aeffe1a895f5a647e1e3aa62.png

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