Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[Allseasons-Si]

20 minutes ago, fromey said:

This not what you want to see!!

It’s only a forecast but if this came anywhere near, I don’t like our chances of any cold weather 

And just that...

look at where we are now(end of the blue line)

[bluearmy]

Some hints through the day so far that the euro heights may not rise much through week 2 and the trough may dig to our south a little more than last few days direction of travel have indicated …….lets see hwere the noon eps are and then tomorrow mornings output to see if merely a pendulum swing which heads back again …..

[Methuselah]

I'm a tad worried by the simultaneous tail-end rises in SLP and temperatures...I'd even fear a possible Bartlett, were it not for the fact that it's all so far out in la la land, as to be academic anyway...

    

    

Slaps wrist and punches face, for having such perniciously subversive thoughts!

[fromey]

32 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And just that...

look at where we are now(end of the blue line)

I hope it keeps going down!!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Plenty of interest in the 12z ensembles this evening.. We have cold shots, potential snow makers and even an all out Estly deep in fi.. Potentially exciting times ahead, or is it just me being like a big kid at Xmas, who still can't wait to open his presents..

[SMU]

ECM operational 192 looks great if its a train of wintry showers you like

A cheshire gap special!

Edited December 6, 2019 by Steve Murr

[joggs]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM operational 192 looks great if its a train of wintry showers you like

A cheshire gap special!

I still think it's not a normal winter coming up as in big surprises to come.

No scientific proof but a gut feeling with some decent signals

We've got to have a good one soon imo.

I'd defo take that for though.

Edited December 6, 2019 by joggs

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM operational 192 looks great if its a train of wintry showers you like

A cheshire gap special!

And there is the MJO phase 2 pattern    

[markw2680]

I’m actually liking the look of the latest charts, as SM says above it’s a Cheshire gap special in the making and that can give some jolly good dumpings to places in the firing line.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

I’m actually liking the look of the latest charts, as SM says above it’s a Cheshire gap special in the making and that can give some jolly good dumpings to places in the firing line.

Aye still FI but that chart would bring the showers through Stockport into Derbyshire, so dumpings for high levels, we need winds NW'ly

[Nick F]

Well, it looks like a rampant zonal jet is in the driving seat for the foreseeable future until something weakens the strengthening and expanding low heights / trop PV to our N and NW - but model ensemble teleconnections forecasts point to a +NAO for the 1st half of Dec for now. So often windy, sometimes wet, alternating Tm and Pm airmasses.

GFS and EC hinting from late next week and through weekend some cold zonality, though often the coldness of the uppers in a W or NW flows tend to be toned down as we drawer nearer the potential. We've already seen a cold arctic northerly downgrade then vanish for Election Day.

The one thing that may help in lessening the moderation of the cold zonal Pm flows sources from deep cold air over Northern Canada is Atlantic SSTs that are below average to the west of British Isles according to SST anomalies below:

[Norrance]

Only two years ago though PM Westerlies brought decent snow even to low levels such as around Glasgow and to many Northern and Western areas at times through December, January and early Feb before being eclipsed a bit by the BFTE in late Feb. So charts like this may bring something to at least some areas even next week.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

46 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

And there is the MJO phase 2 pattern    

not the worst mjo pattern.

id thought northerlies and stalling fronts.

 like nick said sst are low to the west to that's without the pool of really cold air developing around greenland.

and heights down through russia.

i wouldn't rule out something wintry anywhere in the uk.

[blizzard81]

This morning's 00z ecm day 10 mean compared to tonight's 12z day 10 mean. What's happened to the PV? 

[ICE COLD]

18 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Only two years ago though PM Westerlies brought decent snow even to low levels such as around Glasgow and to many Northern and Western areas at times through December, January and early Feb before being eclipsed a bit by the BFTE in late Feb. So charts like this may bring something to at least some areas even next week.

 

Yes @Norrance December 2017 around the 14th (can’t be sure of the exact date) we got a good covering of snow down here (Hertfordshire) and I’m pretty sure that was from N Westerlys or a temporary Northerly. So they can deliver in this set up if it sets up just right . Then there was a repeat on Boxing Day . 
 

Back to here and now and the ECM not looking to bad , seasonal at least after the milder blip . 

[Jordan S]

Here's the Arpege, Icon and the Gfs view on storm Atiyah named by met Eireann for Sunday evening into the night. 

Arpege..

Arpege shows a period of stormy weather for Western and southwestern parts of England and Wales and for Ireland too with 60-70mph widely and 80mph in a few locations. Elsewhere 40-50mph for central parts for a time during Sunday night. 

Icon.. 

Mostly in agreement with Arpege showing stormy conditions for Western and southwestern parts of England and Wales also for Ireland and northern Ireland too perhaps for northeast Scotland too interestingly it shows 60-70mph again for many inland areas perhaps very stormy for the bristol channel and the Irish seas with gusts shown to be in excess of 80mph. 50-60mph for central parts of England for a time. If this is right some disruption and some damage is possible.. Gales shown for north sea coasts on Monday morning. 

GFS next and its toned down the wind gusts somewhat as it shows more disruption to the flow with small areas of low pressure forming taking lobes of rain southwards which takes the potency out of winds a little but even so around 60mph progged for the West southwest of England and Ireland too with 40-50mph elsewhere for England but seems a bit Conservative. 

Further ahead we keep the very disturbed theme with very wet and windy weather a frequent visitor.. 

Gem..

Very unsettled but quite cold especially towards the end of next week with perhaps something more significant in terms of snow but a long way off and subject to change.. 

Ecmwf..

Somwhat similar to the Gem so wet and very windy but a colder theme with more in the way of wintriness to precipitation especially for the north. 

GFS..

A slightly milder option with stormy conditions right up towards day 10 with rain and wind the main issues but snow not to be ruled out in colder interludes especially for northern parts. 

Here's the jet stream again from the Gfs.. 

A strong jetstream upto day 10 which will aid in rapid cyclogenesis of some systems. 

Putting them all together.. 

This shows conditions staying mobile and very unsettled with some colder incursions from the north. A west to then northwesterly theme.

Edited December 6, 2019 by jordan smith

[MR EXTREMES]

very very worrying rainfalls and wind snow forecasters nightmare im sure.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The general outlook well highlighted by Jordan above. Personally I think the ECM mean is a slight improvement... And most definitely so, compared to the other day! Colder incursions bringing everything bar the kitchen sink.. Sure to be some fancied areas, especially at elevation in for a fair bit of the white stuff.. 

 

[stodge]

Evening all

A bit early for me to get interested in the winter modelling but it looks an increasingly disturbed outlook through mid month with the jet close to or just to the south of the British isles and a strong flow out of North America. The main LP centres won't be the problem but embedded secondary features which would enhance rain/showers/wind as they zip from west to east across southern areas.

In terms of accumulations, the usual suspects to the north and north west catching the bulk of the rain as you'd expect with the south and east not faring too badly.

The question then becomes how we break out of the pattern - not immediately would be my thought. The signal for height rises to the east remains in a number of the GEFS members and the scenario of a "battleground" isn't wholly far-fetched but whether it would be SE'ly winds and slider LPs or a more conventional S'ly flow with deep LP moving NNE to the west of Ireland remains to be seen.

[Allseasons-Si]

@Mattwolves

Do you know what i like about those ecm ens is that there is little scatter towards day ten bordering -5,it would be nice to squeeze a bit more below this as we count down the days

the latest from cpc 6-10 and 8-14 day anomaly outlook shows a pretty strong W>NW'ly jet exiting the NE seaboard of Canada later relenting a tad and at the same time heights building into Siberia/Russia joining forces with the Arctic high 

latest NAO/AO

do we see these start to tank into neg values again?,maybe if the pv relents a bit later in the outlook but i wouldn't like to put a spin on this at the moment

so in the near term a cool to cold outlook for the next week or so with mostly west to northwesterly winds with some mild-er blips,some snow about esp northern area's north midlands northwards with snow accumulating quiet a bit over the mountains ,sleety mixes further south but i wouldn't rule out some wintryness further south or some surprises(you never know),with perhaps some hail and thunder in the showers once any fronts have cleared east/SE,oh! and lastly the winds will be particularly strong at times so you might need to batten down some loose potentially flying debris,it certainly won't be boring that's for sure.

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[damianslaw]

Summing up the models, for the foreseeable a very unsettled picture with a strong jetstream firing in wind and rain systems, with only very brief respites, long term again suggestion of something a bit colder as we see more in the way of polar maritime air, but still just out of the reliable to say with certainty that we will inject some colder air to the north at least mid-month, the ECM is showing some quite cold upper air which would bring the risk of snow to quite low levels in the north.. but we were here 3 - 4 days ago, looking at similiar timeframes.. 

All very normal for this time of year.

[SMU]

A long way out but UKMO has that slider scenario at 168 - Sliding into cold air in situ over Scotland ( polar air will have filtered in by then )

Something to consider -

 

* Edited *

Edited December 6, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Fozfoster]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

A long way out but UKMO has that slider scenario at 168 - Sliding into cold air in situ over Scotland ( polar air will have cilter in by then )

Something to consider -

Steve you are a tease. X

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A long way out but UKMO has that slider scenario at 168 - Sliding into cold air in situ over Scotland ( polar air will have cilter in by then )

Something to consider -

what is cilter?

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

what is cilter?

I think he mean't filtered.