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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

According to the GFS, the Boris Blizzard is bit of a no-go!:oldgrin:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

FI ridge popping up on GFS as well, whether it amounts to anything in the coming days who knows but nice to see a small move away from relentless zonality

gfsnh-0-204.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
24 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 144 same as ICON > cold polar flow developing for Election day...

CEA16789-6C42-4767-9B86-8FA586F3EAAD.thumb.png.03d65a4e732370b266d4863ef2453f30.png

Steve

i think that you should of waited until the 850's came out

UW144-7.thumb.gif.92b6b86082a5d47d6626fc6e61e25b46.gif

it did look a lot colder on that chart though.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
12 minutes ago, Mucka said:

FI ridge popping up on GFS as well, whether it amounts to anything in the coming days who knows but nice to see a small move away from relentless zonality

gfsnh-0-204.png?12

Yes Mucka

The jet stream is a lot more buckled on this run,baby steps

12z 204 v 06z 210

gfsnh-5-204.thumb.png.1a0a6365b46c1ad42e03cd49bfdabc5f.pnggfsnh-5-210.thumb.png.10ed0020fbb300960c4da36d222cae04.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Still charts struggling with positioning of low pressure,but all look to be heading south.Most likely 

keeping uk in polar air. should know positioning of lows by Sunday regarding latter part of week

snow in Scotland and northern England,possibly later in south.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Och well, if it won't snow I'll take SW winds and uppers of nearly 10C. Though, that's even less likely to happen than next week's surprise snow fall!:oldgrin:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The control run looks to bring ridging up from the SW but that could be a precursor as to what could happen down the line.

gensnh-0-1-300.thumb.png.a54945029cea27a53196ed60475f2cb7.pnggensnh-0-0-300.thumb.png.61e96f0b2eb1a5f200cb00783fae932b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control run looks to bring ridging up from the SW but that could be a precursor as to what could happen down the line.

gensnh-0-1-300.thumb.png.a54945029cea27a53196ed60475f2cb7.pnggensnh-0-0-300.thumb.png.61e96f0b2eb1a5f200cb00783fae932b.png

Quite a few build a scandi high...

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

It looks a wild few days as the jet is over us.Strong winds with gusts to gale force are forecasted for places around the UK over the weekend and Tuesday and Thursday from just flicking quickly through the earlier GFS frames.

Transient snowfall can't be ruled out as the polar air cuts in behind the cold fronts but most likely as ever over higher levels but you never know with steep lapse rates we could get a brief surprise fall lower down anywhere.

A very wild and unsettled week to come though with frequent changes in air mass but never mild for long especially later in the week.  

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Quite a few build a scandi high...

To name a few

gensnh-1-1-348.thumb.png.3d0f9e94ef2215a46c41eeef2f1fe6b7.pnggensnh-2-1-348.thumb.png.a6c2874a9cdf0711c99fb85d3c059d68.pnggensnh-4-1-348.thumb.png.fae455a07295247e6eac66d7ece0f1d9.pnggensnh-5-1-348.thumb.png.e08e030ae54f9f9aa3540021dce66d29.pnggensnh-6-1-348.thumb.png.5ec4ee39158a10eb4d7097007f465621.pnggensnh-10-1-348.thumb.png.1a3251072adde5965f033200fccc7750.pnggensnh-12-1-348.thumb.png.8f9ef8187b7c3e163abf1b22b4a00c4e.pnggensnh-14-1-348.thumb.png.b5a30aa895bfe415ebdc4b6ee1645eef.pnggensnh-15-1-348.thumb.png.a6bb4bf76d53c9693ea96b15956d5068.png

and the gefs ens

graphe3_1000_261_27___.thumb.png.2317c9b0a9fed8dd8c128d19378e231a.png

op and control on the mild side towards the end.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The GFS 12z op hopefully not a precursor to a pattern change.

JFF FIanim_khn5.gif

The Azores High displaced but replaced with an Atlantic trough/euro high combo; possibly the worse synoptic as we head from mid-December.

Clearly the tPV still remains fluid so hopefully a more "cold" pattern can develop mid-month. The GFS model suffering from high volatility after D9 currently so will need time to resolve FI.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

You would have to say that is a cracking set relative to what expectations are at the moment - some sort of chance of snow from the NW flow and then at least a clustering showing proper blocking potential at the end.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

This not what you want to see!!

It’s only a forecast but if this came anywhere near, I don’t like our chances of any cold weather 

4404D426-A865-4A1E-9C84-F510649A0C6E.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: aberdeen 65m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter Sun in summer
  • Location: aberdeen 65m
2 minutes ago, fromey said:

This not what you want to see!!

It’s only a forecast but if this came anywhere near, I don’t like our chances of any cold weather 

4404D426-A865-4A1E-9C84-F510649A0C6E.jpeg

The trusted Gfshasnt covered itself in glory re its previous forecasts so far this year 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
8 minutes ago, fromey said:

This not what you want to see!!

It’s only a forecast but if this came anywhere near, I don’t like our chances of any cold weather 

4404D426-A865-4A1E-9C84-F510649A0C6E.jpeg

Good grief...

PV on steriods!!

GEFS were adament  the zonal winds would be dropping off last time i checked them.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
2 minutes ago, fromey said:

This not what you want to see!!

It’s only a forecast but if this came anywhere near, I don’t like our chances of any cold weather 

4404D426-A865-4A1E-9C84-F510649A0C6E.jpeg

Crikey ,just had a look at this ,right then I'm off ,  cant find the prozack ,im taking up mild mush spotting instead.    Right I'm back ,great posts today on  wards to the big guns at 7pm , very interesting synoptics looking ahead gang ,cheers .

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Good grief...

PV on steriods!!

GEFS were adament  the zonal winds would be dropping off last time i checked them.

This is just Indicating what we are seeing on the GFS output, nothing unusual really, if we see FI start to show something diff this graph can quickly change. 

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
11 minutes ago, fromey said:

This not what you want to see!!

It’s only a forecast but if this came anywhere near, I don’t like our chances of any cold weather 

4404D426-A865-4A1E-9C84-F510649A0C6E.jpeg

And that's without the sprouts !!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gem finishes like the ecm did this morning although we know that the gem under-cooks the 850's

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.82f78c166dc87761d5dd820eeb88a296.pnggemnh-1-240.thumb.png.e68097c53f668e2d0ffc8d1539255825.png

so not a bad afternoon of runs really,over to you ECM...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gem finishes like the ecm did this morning although we know that the gem under-cooks the 850's

 

so not a bad afternoon of runs really,over to you ECM...

 

That is the best op chart of the day at that particular timeframe.

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