Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[Gowon]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Bucket-loads of sleet/wet snow...? 

Instead of beast from the east.. We could be in for some breast from the west? 

[mb018538]

Still no change this morning:

Stormy at day 10, deep trough dominant:



Day 12:



Day 15:



Not much to get cheery about. Odds of a white Xmas look pretty low at this point with how things are panning out.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean (postage stamps), its unsettled and temperatures are predominantly below average and there are plenty of opportunities for snow, frost and freezing fog...winter is here!!!!❄

 

Edited December 6, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Lampostwatcher]

6z I day cold pm flow with snow on Northern hills next thursday 

 

[mb018538]

You know when the Atlantic is well and truly alive when you see ensembles like this for Moscow:



Way above average. Daytime maxes are forecast to be around 2-3c, they should be around -3c at this time of the year.

[StretfordEnd1996]

ECM Mean at +240 shows perhaps another ridge trying its upmost hardest to built to our W

Not the same with GEFS Mean though

[Zenarcher]

This mornings multimodel graphs I've made a air pressure one as well,

Temperatures sticking to the same trend from yesterday staying around 8c to 9c for next few days with temperatures falling slightly towards the end of next week to around 6c to 7c. The GFS yesterday was showing temps as high as 14c it was clearly an outlier and this morning it's backed down to 8c.

Pressure staying around 1015 to 1000mb between Saturday and Tuesday then dropping to about 990mb next Thursday and Friday. Both GEM and NAVGEM look to be outliers from their 00z runs this morning showing big differences early on.

[Glacier Point]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Watch out for potential height rises to the east just before Christmas (not necessarily in a location that will aid UK cold):

 

Within the context of what I suspect will be a trough dominated early and mid phase to the winter, the extended week  2 - 3 period might offer something of a noteworthy deviation.

Easterly wind anomalies starting to show up in the eastern Equatorial Pacific and associated cooling up the subsurface.

Same thing happened in August and September (although this time round no where near as strong). That was a precursor to a Nina like phase of weather characterised by falling angular momentum.

So a negative tendency to relative angular momentum = retraction of Asian Jet and removal of westerlies from the system. Global Wind Oscillation phases 8 and 1 favoured.

Global Wind Oscillation phases 8 and 1 are remarkably similar to each other.

Current extended range modelling in the last 24 hrs has developed this trend:

Not a perfect match on the analogue model, and positioning of the North Pacific ridge 20 degrees further east (therefore shift analogue ridge close to UK to the east).

What that does highlight is a potentially drier phase with pressure rising to the east / north-east for a period weeks 2 - 3. Wave 2 activity might also uptick on the polar vortex distorting its shape somewhat.

Given the last time models went for a North Pacific ridge it was massively overdone, I'd be sceptical of the duration, and mean anomalous trough would be the expectation for Europe as we head into January. Still, something at least to watch in the next 10 days to see how this develops.

[Methuselah]

Nothing too exciting within today's GEFS 06Z ensembles...So, based purely upon the rapidly-developing scatter (and rapidly-evolving pattern) sitting on the fence, regarding any attempts at timing possible events, might be the safest option?

    

    

 

Edited December 6, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

Looking at the models so far today, as Yoda would say, snow next week it will!!

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Within the context of what I suspect will be a trough dominated early and mid phase to the winter, the extended week  2 - 3 period might offer something of a noteworthy deviation.

Easterly wind anomalies starting to show up in the eastern Equatorial Pacific and associated cooling up the subsurface.

Same thing happened in August and September (although this time round no where near as strong). That was a precursor to a Nina like phase of weather characterised by falling angular momentum.

So a negative tendency to relative angular momentum = retraction of Asian Jet and removal of westerlies from the system. Global Wind Oscillation phases 8 and 1 favoured.

Global Wind Oscillation phases 8 and 1 are remarkably similar to each other.

Current extended range modelling in the last 24 hrs has developed this trend:

Not a perfect match on the analogue model, and positioning of the North Pacific ridge 20 degrees further east (therefore shift analogue ridge close to UK to the east).

What that does highlight is a potentially drier phase with pressure rising to the east / north-east for a period weeks 2 - 3. Wave 2 activity might also uptick on the polar vortex distorting its shape somewhat.

Given the last time models went for a North Pacific ridge it was massively overdone, I'd be sceptical of the duration, and mean anomalous trough would be the expectation for Europe as we head into January. Still, something at least to watch in the next 10 days to see how this develops.

A few 06z ens did sniff out something along them lines.

[feb1991blizzard]

I Suspect that GWO phase 8 chart must have been what the Met office were thinking when they briefly issued a D16-30d trend of colder but drier weather, now perhaps they think it will be more like a Euro or Sceuro instead of a UK high, of course it wouldn't take much of a tweaking for any ridge to just be a buffer and a continual trough to be anchored over the UK - think record breaking winter rainfall to go with autumns and severe flooding would be on the menu.

EDIT : That bottom paragraph from GP might not mean the prognosis for January is quite as tragic either - 'The mean anomalous trough would be the expectation for Europe', obviously depends where its positioned as to whether we would expect just plain wet for the UK or whether some of that PPN could be of a wintry mix.

Edited December 6, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[joggs]

38 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Within the context of what I suspect will be a trough dominated early and mid phase to the winter, the extended week  2 - 3 period might offer something of a noteworthy deviation.

Easterly wind anomalies starting to show up in the eastern Equatorial Pacific and associated cooling up the subsurface.

Same thing happened in August and September (although this time round no where near as strong). That was a precursor to a Nina like phase of weather characterised by falling angular momentum.

So a negative tendency to relative angular momentum = retraction of Asian Jet and removal of westerlies from the system. Global Wind Oscillation phases 8 and 1 favoured.

Global Wind Oscillation phases 8 and 1 are remarkably similar to each other.

Current extended range modelling in the last 24 hrs has developed this trend:

Not a perfect match on the analogue model, and positioning of the North Pacific ridge 20 degrees further east (therefore shift analogue ridge close to UK to the east).

What that does highlight is a potentially drier phase with pressure rising to the east / north-east for a period weeks 2 - 3. Wave 2 activity might also uptick on the polar vortex distorting its shape somewhat.

Given the last time models went for a North Pacific ridge it was massively overdone, I'd be sceptical of the duration, and mean anomalous trough would be the expectation for Europe as we head into January. Still, something at least to watch in the next 10 days to see how this develops.

Thanks Gp. Good to hear from you. Us long servers appreciate it

[SMU]

A decent ICON to start the afternoon

* Watch out for the sliding low day 6 *

[Allseasons-Si]

The ICON is an upgrade in terms of getting that cold air further south,also is there a Scandi high developing?

[feb1991blizzard]

EC46 showing a slightly better chart at Week 6, not perfect as its a shallow anomaly and could do with being further North so really scraping the barrel.

Edited December 6, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 showing a slightly better chart at Week 6, not perfect as its a shallow anomaly and could do with being further North so really scraping the barrel.

Apart from the osolation signiture...thats a banging snap...

But its the ec46=

So take it howya will!!!

Edited December 6, 2019 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ICON is an upgrade in terms of getting that cold air further south,also is there a Scandi high developing?

Without being padantic..thats a Russian high forced

....but the Scandinavian format is there...and gaining...

Edited December 6, 2019 by tight isobar

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Without being padantic..that a Russian high forced

....but the Scandinavian format is there...and gaining...

Yeah more Scrussion but may build and deflect our troughs south eventually. 

Hopefully they don't disrupt over us and we get a rainathon 

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Without being padantic..thats a Russian high forced

....but the Scandinavian format is there...and gaining...

Yes you are correct,maybe i should of stated that it's pushing into Scandi,sorry for the mis-wording.

that high has developed though since the 00z.

so one to watch.

Edited December 6, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yeah more Scrussion but may build and deflect our troughs south eventually. 

Hopefully they don't disrupt over us and we get a rainathon 

Lol...and you just know the jet.....Will likely buckle at the incorrect geographic point...And have a big say in the above^^^..

 

Edited December 6, 2019 by tight isobar

[SMU]

Possible Snow showers for the NE Mon Afternoon-

 

[Chesil View]

Well it's been quite a week model wise. We've gone from blizzard of the century for southern England to bog standard slightly north of West airstream with a rain and gales darn sarf and bit of white for the usual suspects oop north.There's been some bemoaning of the fact that there is little in the way of deep cold to tap into even though for much of the time we will be on the north(cold) side of the jet.  Yet the great thing about our climate is that we do not require deep cold uppers of minus 10 to bring extraordinarily deep snow. 

So once again I will wheel out my old chestnut (freshly polished I might add for this new winter season.) The deepest snow (12-18 inches on low ground and drifting to 30 feet) of my nigh on sixty years here on the south coast fell with uppers of minus 2!!!

Enjoy the winter ride guys.

Edited December 6, 2019 by Broadmayne blizzard

[SMU]

UKMO 144 same as ICON > cold polar flow developing for Election day...

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs is trying to form that block just like the ICON did a bit ago

12z 144 v 06z 150

will we see that trough disrupt over the UK in the next few runs,this is gaining traction.

 

 

Edited December 6, 2019 by Allseasons-si