Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM having none of this cold.

Give it chance Feb,the cold air doesn't come in until 168> on the gfs.

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I also looked at 10th of Dec....the mild sector lasts for about 14 hrs before it’s shunted away by pM air again.  To the storm around election day....peak energy timing with Full Moon modulation....so I’m expecting severe gales/disruptive weather to verify around that period.  I’m feeling more optimistic today re decent cold shots (with south to join in, t’up north its banked imo), maybe be come an go....but to come again....and again.  

 

BFTP 

 hardly surprising is it that likes of Scotland and Northern England getting wintry weather even most crappy winter they do have wintry weather during the season for example look at today’s output it’s not screaming wintry for the south is it

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM having none of this cold.

I think it depends how high you set the bar feb.its obv pretty low ATM because snow on high ground Midlands north isn't that rare in December is it.il be prob told diff

Edited December 5, 2019 by swfc

[swfc]

EC is shocking btw at 192 hrs !!! 

[Geordiesnow]

Think the problem I am seeing in the outputs is any amplified ridges are not sustaining at all so there is no sense of significantly cold weather on the way for a while yet. 

The outlook can and has change quickly before, that is the nature of the weather so no point chasing cold after 200 hours because it will change att that timeframe. 

Looking forward to the potential of severe gales though, definately one to watch, the met office should consider using its storm naming process as its looking likely severe gales could be widespread. 

[swfc]

Can somebody give me a positive from today's output from a coldie perspective?granted there arnt raging SW winds but really?I know things arnt great but what are folk looking at? Tia

[Jordan S]

An Ecm overview upto 144hr for anyone interested. 

850hpa upper air temperatures pretty cold throughout the 10 day period but With milder interludes. 

Edited December 5, 2019 by jordan smith

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Can somebody give me a positive from today's output from a coldie perspective?granted there arnt raging SW winds but really?I know things arnt great but what are folk looking at? Tia

Not much - you'll have to make do with no more frigid cold spilling out of the |USA Eastern seaboard at 216 - unfortunately there is still around Newfoundland and Greenland though!

[phil nw.]

Today's runs promise some very mobile and changeable conditions milder at first and looking colder later next week with a higher chance of snowfall for some up north.

Overall though it is difficult to maintain anything other than brief cold shots in such a pattern.Any deeper cold seems held above 60N for much of the time,only slipping south briefly in the rear of passing lows before the next warm front heads in.

The only bright note i could end on is that with cold air so close to the north a little extra ridging in the Atlantic would work wonders for snow chances more widely but that's a hope rather than an expectation currently.

Edited December 5, 2019 by phil nw.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not much - you'll have to make do with no more frigid cold spilling out of the |USA Eastern seaboard at 216 - unfortunately there is still around Newfoundland and Greenland though!

Cheers.i could run off some old classics like to fi is at 144 hrs but it's not going to cut it is it?who knows this time tom the Thames could be freezing over and polar bears running down downing st.all that aside looks very pleasent in southern Europe heading to xmas

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

An Ecm overview upto 144hr for anyone interested. 

850hpa upper air temperatures pretty cold throughout the 9 day period With milder interludes. 

better than most of Nov, at least it's zonal with strong jet, rainbands whizzing through, rather than fronts lingering for ages giving non stop rain

[blizzard81]

13 minutes ago, swfc said:

Can somebody give me a positive from today's output from a coldie perspective?granted there arnt raging SW winds but really?I know things arnt great but what are folk looking at? Tia

Yep. This at day 10 on the ecm. 

[Jordan S]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

better than most of Nov, at least it's zonal with strong jet, rainbands whizzing through, rather than fronts lingering for ages giving non stop rain

True but the succession of them will raise River levels high once again fairly quickly. With the jet stream strong then strong winds are likely to pose a few problems instead of rain in the short term especially for sunday/Monday this excluding Western Scotland where it will be very wet during the next few days. 

Edited December 5, 2019 by jordan smith

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep. This at day 10 on the ecm. 

Thanks .yep looks promising barring it's connected to huge euro heights,who knows tho

[Anthony Burden]

GFS 850 HPA temperatures below average from the 11th to 21st December in London,and ECM 2meter temperature 

tending downwards.

[Beanz]

34 minutes ago, swfc said:

Can somebody give me a positive from today's output from a coldie perspective?granted there arnt raging SW winds but really?I know things arnt great but what are folk looking at? Tia

Cold it will likely be next week - but the not the pleasant kind, probably wet and windy at times.  I’m guessing that’s not the sort of cold you’re after! 
 

A forecast based on tonight’s model output wouldn’t be much different to what it was this time yesterday.  

[Jeremy Shockey]

7 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

GFS 850 HPA temperatures below average from the 11th to 21st December in London,and ECM 2meter temperature 

tending downwards.

Yes agreed AB , plenty of interest.

Still looking very cold for 12th / 13th for many of us.

 

[Met4Cast]

The disagreement between ECM/GFS begins as early as Monday.

GFS is much sharper with the energy digging further south and as a result we get a more cold air across the UK, ECM less sharp and we see less cold air reaching our shores. UKMO looks likely to be more of a middle ground scenario to me. 

Low lying areas in the south are going to be disappointed but if you live above 200m Midlands northwards then mid-late next week is likely to be incredibly interesting for you.

[markw2680]

Tbh I don’t no whether it’s just me but I’m actually looking forward to some lively weather again weather it’s wind rain sleet or even s**w, I get kind of bored of this still nothing stuff, I no flooding and that is really bad but I just find this calm stuff a tad boring

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

Can somebody give me a positive from today's output from a coldie perspective?granted there arnt raging SW winds but really?I know things arnt great but what are folk looking at? Tia

I assume you are from Sheffield judging by your user name but there is no location in your profile!

the only bit of good news is that the gefs ens have a tight cool/cold clustering from the 11th pretty much to the end,these are much better than yesterdays 12z set

our local,London area not so much though

i am looking forward to this mobile windy weather actually with everything inc the kitchen sink thrown in.

Edit:just in and the ecm op is a massive mild outlier.

Edited December 5, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The op was on the warmer side of the pack with tonight's mean. And there are still a fair few chilly options on that mean... I don't believe in putting a fur coat and lipstick on a pig, but I've seen worse.. Wouldn't at all be surprised to see a much rosier outlook in the next few days... Let the roller coaster begin. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

19 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Tbh I don’t no whether it’s just me but I’m actually looking forward to some lively weather again weather it’s wind rain sleet or even s**w, I get kind of bored of this still nothing stuff, I no flooding and that is really bad but I just find this calm stuff a tad boring

not for me living here, if I lived at 300m plus especially north then yes, but I'd much rather have as most call it 'boring' weather

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The op was on the warmer side of the pack with tonight's mean. And there are still a fair few chilly options on that mean... I don't believe in putting a fur coat and lipstick on a pig, but I've seen worse.. Wouldn't at all be surprised to see a much rosier outlook in the next few days... Let the roller coaster begin. 

It began last month

looking at the means from ecm v gefs,the ecm mean  shows some sort of pressure rise at day ten in the western Atlantic,can we build on that.

 

 

[weirpig]

Not my first choice of westher for next week  but interesting it will be  one thing thats been lacking this autumn and winter as been high winds   and next week will bring plenty  of those accompanied  by  bands of rain sleet and snow  and frantically running down the road to recover your crochet bobble hat  is what winters all about   bring it on   

[damianslaw]

A lively spell of weather on the way, one thing we haven't had much of in recent weeks, barely at all is high winds.. wind will be a very regular feature as we see bands of rain, with some sleet/snow in the north/higher ground rushing through on a re-energised jetstream. Marked temperature contrasts between the rain bands, averaging out near average overall, polar maritime air settling into the north for lengthier periods compared to the south.  All very normal for early-mid December, traditionally this is the most 'westerly' period of the year, the least likely time for non-westerly weather.