Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

If you can see heights anywhere near Greenland there you need to go to Specsavers!!! I must be in twilight zone jesus

The image I posted shows heights higher than the previous fame, and I stand by my comment where iv's seen worse PV profiles over Greenland

The lack of snow in these charts is clearly getting to you, your aggrieve posting style is a bit OTT maybe the mods can give you a week off?

[Mapantz]

Posts are going missing quickly. 

Go to the correct thread if you're making a general post. Thanks.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Great post mate once again 

Tell you what though you love to see it...12th and 13th December potentially looking snowy.

 

That is going to feel raw! (If it becomes reality)

Yep, good cold hunt.....that will feel and is biting cold....and that ain’t snow just for Ben Nevis’ peak either

 

BFTP

[frosty ground]

This would be a dramatically worse PV profile over Greenland. BTW Also mildest part of the run @300+ hours

 

[SMU]

Some crazy ENS around 192-204

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The UKMO has a different evolution to the GFS and the ECM this morning with the low at t144 near Newfoundland. It takes it south of the Greenland tip on Wednesday whereas the GFS and ECM have a much slower evolution and has the low still in Newfoundland at t144 and eventually splits as it moves East with some disruption going South of Greenland.

Edited December 5, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[Northern Sky]

Quick question. It seems we are in for a spell of cyclonic weather but is that guaranteed to be mild? The models show weather for the next week or so which is certainly not mild. It might not be a deep freeze but it will feel very cold with chances of snow for some. 

Does the forecast spell of continuing cyclonic weather mean more of this cool/cold zonality or is it likely to be more SW'ly driven? Are we expecting to see a rise in pressure over Europe or could the jet stream remain on a southerly track?

[winterof79]

Gfs OP probably one of the coldest options for the end of next week unfortunately.... According to shorts

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=256&y=41

 

 

Edited December 5, 2019 by winterof79

[topo]

Things are moving towards the  long range model forecast agreement. Intense zonality pattern and mild throughout Europe

[Jordan S]

The Gfs and Gem in good agreement on the deep low for Sunday night into Monday.. 

Gem..

Wind gust chart from the Gfs..

A vigorous system with widespread gales perhaps severe gales. Details not nailed on ofcourse. 

Stil uncertainty in regards to how this low interacts with the another low centre as I explained this morning.

The GFS overview of this system.. Note these are peak wind gusts.

Here's the jet stream for the same time period once again A strong jet stream in the vicinity and over the uk aiding in development of this system. 

Gem..

This system is definitely one to keep a very close eye on especially with quite saturated ground still in places and the strongest gusts perhaps from the Northwest which is more uncommon than your typical west or south-westerly 

Edited December 5, 2019 by jordan smith

[swfc]

Fantastic set of 12z so far,esp the heights building to the nnw.lets hope EC joins the club

Edited December 5, 2019 by swfc

[Iceaxecrampon]

7 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

The Gfs and Gem in good agreement on the deep low for Sunday night into Monday.. 

Gem.. 

Wind gust chart from the Gfs..

A vigorous system with widespread gales perhaps severe gales. Details not nailed on ofcourse. 

The GFS overview of this system.. Note these are peak wind gusts.

Gem..

This system is definitely one to keep a very close eye on. 

Maybe not nailed on but that aint FI.

Over to the METO for Yellows?

[Jordan S]

8 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Maybe not nailed on but that aint FI.

Over to the METO for Yellows?

Yes in fairly reliable time frame now I was more referring to wind gusts this may bring being uncertain. It depends how it interacts with the other low centre that rotates around it. 

Edited December 5, 2019 by jordan smith

[Tim Bland]

GEM isn’t too bad with a flow north of west and uppers of -4c to -6c. Ridge trying to build in the Atlantic 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM isn’t too bad with a flow north of west and uppers of -4c to -6c. Ridge trying to build in the Atlantic 

You can clearly see the a big chunk of the PV heading east- the problem for coldies is that rotten segment sat over Canada- flattening out the Atlantic ..

Still looks good for those in the north with decent elevation..history suggests minimum of 250m will be needed in this setup for snow.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM isn’t too bad with a flow north of west and uppers of -4c to -6c. Ridge trying to build in the Atlantic 

for northern members great Tim, but for here useless, might as well be 11 degrees, I mean it'll look the same, just slightly cooler rain, I prefer Bartlett to cold zonality living here

[MATTWOLVES 3]

To my eye, the 12z ensembles show a fair amount of colder options, and definitely not pointing to a full zonal onslaught.... Personally I still feel this a better situation than this time last year!! And anybody trying to make a call on January, and worse still... February.... Forget it,whatever your credentials! It's just not scientifically possible. So for next week, unsettled conditions for sure... Snow likely up North.... Elsewhere... Don't rule it out! These things will crop up at very short notice, and the models won't have a take on it at this stage. 

Edited December 5, 2019 by Mattwolves

[nick sussex]

It’s a shame there’s no decent ridging to the nw just at the time there’s some very cold air to the north .

The GFS briefly brings something colder se but it’s a cold outlier and isn’t supported by the UKMO in terms of evolution beforehand .

The story at the moment seems more about severe gales than anything wintry .

A pretty horrid outlook overall and for coldies I think a lot of patience is going to be needed. 

Let’s see what the ECM has to say , it surely can’t get any worse than that GFS output .

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

for northern members great Tim, but for here useless, might as well be 11 degrees, I mean it'll look the same, just slightly cooler rain, I prefer Bartlett to cold zonality living here

Mods he said Bartlett ..can he banned for a month please

It wouldn’t take much to bring all the Uk in on the action though.  Alternatively (for those who are able) jump on a train or take a drive up north? That’s what I’ll Be doing...and this is where I’ll be at Christmas - Cold zonal is great for the Alps! 

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s a shame there’s no decent ridging to the nw just at the time there’s some very cold air to the north .

The GFS briefly brings something colder se but it’s a cold outlier and isn’t supported by the UKMO in terms of evolution beforehand .

The story at the moment seems more about severe gales than anything wintry .

A pretty horrid outlook overall and for coldies I think a lot of patience is going to be needed. 

Let’s see what the ECM has to say , it surely can’t get any worse than that GFS output .

Praise the lord,thanks nick for a level headed post.app we have a chance of heights towards Greenland?has my senility taken over or is there zero chance 7-10days.tia

[SMU]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Mods he said Bartlett ..can he banned for a month please

It wouldn’t take much to bring all the Uk in on the action though.  Alternatively (for those who are able) jump on a train or take a drive up north? That’s what I’ll Be doing...and this is where I’ll be at Christmas - Cold zonal is great for the Alps! 

My first school trip was to la clusaz !!!

Onwards to the ECM !

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Praise the lord,thanks nick for a level headed post.app we have a chance of heights towards Greenland?has my senility taken over or is there zero chance 7-10days.tia

Well I think coldies are looking for some snow and a few days to enjoy it .

There’s unfortunately no sign of that. Anyway let’s at least hope any reforming of the PV to the north is short lived and then we can see where we go from there .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You can clearly see the a big chunk of the PV heading east- the problem for coldies is that rotten segment sat over Canada- flattening out the Atlantic ..

Still looks good for those in the north with decent elevation..history suggests minimum of 250m will be needed in this setup for snow.

 

You won’t need elevation NWS up North on these runs

 

BFTP

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, Northern Sky said:

Quick question. It seems we are in for a spell of cyclonic weather but is that guaranteed to be mild? The models show weather for the next week or so which is certainly not mild. It might not be a deep freeze but it will feel very cold with chances of snow for some. 

Does the forecast spell of continuing cyclonic weather mean more of this cool/cold zonality or is it likely to be more SW'ly driven? Are we expecting to see a rise in pressure over Europe or could the jet stream remain on a southerly track?

Probably best suited for the chats thread but I'll answer the jet stream which carries these weather systems is shown to be over or a little south of the uk through next week that would mean mainly a northwesterly airflow which would be fairly cold generally and with snow for mainly northern areas at times particularly on high ground and for Scotland but not exclusively soo necessarily with shorter mild interludes compared to the mild or very mild conditions you tend to get with a south westerly. 

Edited December 5, 2019 by jordan smith

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM having none of this cold.