Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thanks to GP for that reply, right - that at least puts the record straight now, we have heard it from the horses mouth - over to February then!!

Nope, don't agree m8..

Later Dec and Jan/Feb still in play although i would agree up to the last third of Dec looks a write off..

Higher routes of Oldham at 400m plus will be plastered next week, we should head up there..

Edited December 5, 2019 by northwestsnow

[snowstorm27x]

8 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

ICON 12z run is a tad more 'aggressive' with its lows than its run this morning

12z first for 00:00 Wednesday

If that comes of like that we could see some impressive wind speed being recorded. But again it's a huge difference to its previous run. The models are seriously struggling at present  

[StretfordEnd1996]

Aside from a brief shot on Monday, ICON really struggles to bring in any uppers of note (-5) until back end of Thursday very end of the run

 

[Paul_1978]

10 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

ICON 12z run is a tad more 'aggressive' with its lows than its run this morning

12z first for 00:00 Wednesday

Well if we can't have widespread snow, then a good old gale and a few storms will pique my interest over the next few weeks......... although hand on heart if we can't have snow, settled and dry would be preferred.

[Mucka]

UKMO relentlessly awful unless you love wind and rain,

TBF the other models offer plenty of that too but at least promise some wintry stuff in the mix, more especially for N Britain though granted.

 

[frosty ground]

Still potential even if its short term. 

[StretfordEnd1996]

Yes this looks a tad more interesting - lots more could happen with this 

[Weathizard]

Differences at 168, pacific side of us quite a drastic one actually

[StretfordEnd1996]

Well hello there Mrs. -10 upper, you weren't really supposed to be invited to the party?!

[feb1991blizzard]

Game on again!!!!

 

[West is Best]

This GFS 12z is relatively sensational for the election, given that we've endured two days of damp squibs.

There's even a Channel Low appearing on Thurs afternoon to cause disruption.

 

Much as I would love this to occur, I fear this might be one of those occasions when GFS is overdoing the intensity of the low but, who knows? Here's hoping.

Edited December 5, 2019 by Norrance

[snowstorm27x]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Differences at 168, pacific side of us quite a drastic one actually

Yep slightly better amplification and PV not as angry. 7 days weatherwise is still a lifetime so lots more changes to come. Let's hope we are now past the bad. Nice upgrade today be interesting to see where the UKMO would have gone.

[Mapantz]

Model discussion only, please. This isn't the place for 'so and so got this wrong and so and so got that right'

General chat, moans and ramps here

Ta.

[Iceaxecrampon]

GFS 12Z

Joining the party again 

Thats after the two major LP systems Sunday  - Wednesday

Never a dull moment

 

[frosty ground]

Changes over the states having a knock on affect down stream

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

27 minutes ago, West is Best said:

This GFS 12z is relatively sensational for the election, given that we've endured two days of damp squibs.

There's even a Channel Low appearing on Thurs afternoon to knock Boris adrift cause disruption.

Much as I would love this to occur, I fear this might be one of those occasions when GFS is overdoing the intensity of the low but, who knows? Here's hoping.

Richard, good spot....I’m beginning to see upgrades re-appear.  That storm with -10c 850s sweeping in behind....with storm force winds.....perishing.

I was beginning to think that as per my fears in my winter outlook that pM and aM shots don’t always cut the mustard for the south.  Well Scotland NI and Northern England are in for potential serious winter weather.....the goalposts are beginning to shunt south again 

BFTP

Edited December 5, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[frosty ground]

Are we heading for a Greenland high?

[StretfordEnd1996]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Are we heading for a Greenland high?

I can't see much there - unless I'm missing something!!

Either way you're getting my ears to book up? 

[swfc]

Wow rutting season again!! I'm pretty sure Stewart "GP" has at least a better take on things long term.anyway unsettled it is then with the PV on steroids and some wintry weather on the higher ground in the north.remember this is the hunt for cold thread,not likes!!?

Edited December 5, 2019 by swfc

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Are we heading for a Greenland high?

Really!!!Greenland is maxed out on the pv

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I also looked at 10th of Dec....the mild sector lasts for about 14 hrs before it’s shunted away by pM air again.  To the storm around election day....peak energy timing with Full Moon modulation....so I’m expecting severe gales/disruptive weather to verify around that period.  I’m feeling more optimistic today re decent cold shots (with south to join in, t’up north its banked imo), maybe be come an go....but to come again....and again.  

 

BFTP 

Edited December 5, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Really!!!Greenland is maxed out on the pv

 

I've seen worse, PV is being moved around from run to Run.

[Mr Frost]

Tell you what though you love to see it...12th and 13th December potentially looking snowy.

 

That is going to feel raw! (If it becomes reality)

Edited December 5, 2019 by Mr Frost

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Well 12z GFS is a bust.i think you can polish a turd lads but look at that PV!!! What's with this lunar stuff also???

It's also dramatically different across the pole.

 

[northwestsnow]

You got to hand it to GLOSEA5  it evidently forsaw a very strong PV to the north west in December and it looks a good shout as it stands...

GFS does bring a very potent if brief northerly late next week , not uncommon in a +NAO regime.

Think some pain is imminent for us long suffering coldies though..