Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[Faronstream]

1 minute ago, Faronstream said:

Don't you see  the azores height that is a lot more to the east on today's run and that is the problem.It's always the azores height that is underestimated

Nevermind we mean the same thing

[Iceaxecrampon]

GFS 06Z

Never mind Snow how about this in the near term.

[Mr Frost]

@Faronstream  you have the right idea above mate - chatting/replying to yourself.  

Yes @Iceaxecrampon looks a tad windy there!

All models in agreement on that at least. (why never for snow though? )

GFS

ECM

UKMO

Edited December 5, 2019 by Mr Frost

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Yes @Iceaxecrampon looks a tad windy there!

All models in agreement on that at least. (why never for snow though? )

 

@Faronstream you have the right idea above mate - chatting/replying to yourself. 

Lol the models would make you do that mean while blizzard in North Scotland.

[Methuselah]

Unless I am mistaken (or have gone-down with a case of SRE, Snow Ramper's Eye!) the HP centred over Greenland looks a tad less-flimsy than it did, on some previous runs...?

    

Better chance of a direct northerly, farther down the line?

[tight isobar]

Watch for the link..@Pacific pump...@Greenland !!!.@possibly.

 

I refrained from analysis last night..and with reason.

The squeeze on the tpv..and continued alliance of the Pacific punch...is notable in syphon of the Canadian/Alaskan lobe...today's the turn day !!!

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Unless I am mistaken (or have gone-down with a case of SRE, Snow Ramper's Eye!) the HP centred over Greenland looks a tad less-flimsy than it did, on some previous runs...?

    

Better chance of a direct northerly, farther down the line?

Don't be fooled by the pressure shown there - it isn't a true Greenland high, just as it isn't in a weeks time:



It might be showing 1035mb, but 500mb heights are far too low. Just down to the topography of Greenland sadly.

This is a 100% proper rip-snorter of a GH:

[Jeremy Shockey]

Election Day still looking very cold for most on the GFs 6 Z

[Snowman.]

Much stronger pacific ridge on this run with the jet slightly more amplified and on a more NNW-SES trajectory, with lows diving deeper into Europe and much colder air staying in place especially further north. 

Edited December 5, 2019 by Snowman.

[SMU]

Morning All-

So the emphasis swings towards a stormy pattern - no good for southern UK however for those in the North & indeed NI ( @Sperrin ) This can still be a snowy one given the angle of the jet tracking at a slightly amplified angle.

The key is still getting the trough East of the Uk & if it does then theres some decent cold bottled up to the North.

Low heights / steep lapse rates & -6c air can be great ingredients for these regions at this time of year

Enjoy

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Watch for the link..@Pacific pump...@Greenland !!!.@possibly.

 

I refrained from analysis last night..and with reason.

The squeeze on the tpv..and continued alliance of the Pacific punch...is notable in syphon of the Canadian/Alaskan lobe...today's the turn day !!!

It started last night.

[StretfordEnd1996]

Thank goodness D10 charts never come off. 

 

Plenty to play for before then though  

 

[Mr Frost]

If this comes off for next week some upland villages in Scotland are going to be snowed in for a day or two! 

Few snippets from next week - GFS 6z (There are many more - too many to post)

 

It is a recurring theme - let’s see if it counts down into a reliable timeframe. 

Edited December 5, 2019 by Mr Frost

[tight isobar]

15 minutes ago, booferking said:

It started last night.

It started 7 days ago @Pacific arm!

Yet taking the layers and related data on that...the pressure is now well and truly on...with regards to dissolve/transfer!! 

We should see a beckoning of an upward modelled Siberian lobe...as the tightening begins..

I'm sure the 12z will start to note this...

[booferking]

11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

It started 7 days ago @Pacific arm!

Yet taking the layers and related data on that...the pressure is now well and truly on...with regards to dissolve/transfer!! 

We should see a beckoning of an upward modelled Siberian lobe...as the tightening begins..

I'm sure the 12z will start to note this...

Yes i know but the model begin to show this more clearer in its output last night (ie) the jet alignment all in all we should see more of this when the 12z come.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Yes i know but the model begin to show this more clearer in its output last night (ie) the jet alignment all in all we should see more of this when the 12z come.

As for the + NAO sync...It's modelled...but not locked in..or as a given state!..

Again let's watch the 12z raws unravel...

[weirpig]

Whilst many are still looking for cold weather  the interest for me is the impending wind  which is associated with these fronts as they cross the country   many place in England and Wales could see speeds of 60mph   much higher on the coasts      one to watch  as i still remeber Storm Doris  which caused havoc around here  and that was only 10mph higher

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello, Hello - little acorns and all that......

[Methuselah]

Well, well, well...Day 16 and all is fine; the building blocks are at last falling into place!

    

More runs needed!

[tight isobar]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello, Hello - little acorns and all that......

Just to add..

This being a format I'd expect in the given state.. 

But go as far to say the two lobes...being a draw and quater...with Siberian being more stark...and as again the Canadian in disolve of displaying....as we gain.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Just to add..

This being a format I'd expect in the given state.. 

But go as far to say the two lobes...being a draw and quater...with Siberian being more stark...and as again the Canadian in disolve of displaying....as we gain.

Not much ensemble support yet though unfortunately.

[feb1991blizzard]

I wonder if it could be the start of GP's 'how much Arctic air can we tease out in the second half of Dec'.

[weirpig]

 

      

Just  a few of the perbs   for the possible rain and windstorms to come early next week  ( sorry about the layout)  Brutal   950mb and below   this if it veryifies   will be the news maker. 

[tight isobar]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not much ensemble support yet though unfortunately.

Feb...

I wouldn't expect there to be...it mimics/momentum lag...

It's kiss chase....

But who's gonna end up with lipstick...or egg on there bonce...

..

I'm confident in my assumption..and I'll either stand...or die by em..

Over to the afternoon/evening raws

Edited December 5, 2019 by tight isobar

[Methuselah]

Well, there's plenty of scatter within the 06Z ensembles, post Day 10!

    

    

Will it be cold? Will it be mild? Will it be somewhere in between? Who knows?