Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[swfc]

10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Is anyone genuinely surprised by the deterioration in the modelling? As I've repeatedly said, there just isn't enough forcing for a cold spell to occur. It's a sobering prospect but it is what it is.

 

Nope.guess it's how you hang onto things  Crewe and how you see them.folk posting snowfall charts at 14 days on GFS yesterday will go to my grave with me!!

Edited December 4, 2019 by swfc

[booferking]

Last nights & tonight's if anyone wants to compare the cliff fall.

Edited December 4, 2019 by booferking

[nick sussex]

The ECM and GFS are similar for Election Day in terms of overall pattern.

The latter though has a deeper low over the North Sea .

 

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Is anyone genuinely surprised by the deterioration in the modelling? As I've repeatedly said, there just isn't enough forcing for a cold spell to occur. It's a sobering prospect but it is what it is.

 

Yes i remember you saying always back the model that says no to cold, even if the others say yes. It keeps on happening, cross model agreement is what is needed before anyone can get too excited and as for charts 10 days out....... meh. So let's hope they change to something colder and all show similar solutions.....but not likely at the moment.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Last nights & tonight's if anyone wants to compare the cliff fall.

Look North west- huge difference.

[northwestsnow]

Jesus, EC is worse than GFS,lol.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Jesus, EC is worse than GFS,lol.

well, a dry day! as dry days as rare as 'eck from Friday, as tomorrow last dry day here, got to make the most of any dry few hours

[LRD]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Jesus, EC is worse than GFS,lol.

Took the words out of my mouth

What a shocker. What a turnaround. 2-0 up at half time and we end up getting thrashed 6-2! 

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Jesus, EC is worse than GFS,lol.

Haha yep it's a shocker,but it could be worse

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Jesus, EC is worse than GFS,lol.

So what happens next?  Bearing in mind as you watch it develop the AZH is not primed to ridge NE.

 

BFTP 

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

2 hours ago, booferking said:

Not bad if you live across the pond east coast blast.

That should fire up the jet before Xmas.

Same old, same old, USA once again gets the cold & snow so I presume while this is going on the jet will be firing on all cylinders so it's going to be very unsettled and stormy for the UK & Ireland?

Edited December 4, 2019 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[The PIT]

The cold spell couldn't even get to T144. Back to the generally warming trend after teasing everyone with a nailed on cold snap at T168.

[Djdazzle]

I am staggered that so many people are surprised by today’s output. Why do people, some of who have been on here for years, expect cold charts in FI to come to fruition? We have had cross model support at T96 in the past, and it’s still gone wrong. It was literally a 1% chance that last night’s runs would actually happen.

 

[LRD]

And the final kick to the guts - our star striker gets injured in the last minute...

Unbelievable stuff compared to 24 hours ago! You've got to laugh

Edited December 4, 2019 by LRD

[Guest]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So what happens next?  Bearing in mind as you watch it develop the AZH is not primed to ridge NE.

 

BFTP 

Another low diving SE with snow over northern hills and cold rain elsewhere? Rinse and repeat. Cool zonality the form horse at the moment.

[swfc]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So what happens next?  Bearing in mind as you watch it develop the AZH is not primed to ridge NE.

 

BFTP 

In a word no.its has flat as a pancake

[cyclonic happiness]

Just now, LRD said:

And the final kick to the guts - our start striker gets injured in the last minute...

Unbelievable stuff compared to 24 hours ago! You've got to laugh

i'm sure it will change again. Is the cold nailed in America? That usually spells the death knell to anything cold here?

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So what happens next?  Bearing in mind as you watch it develop the AZH is not primed to ridge NE.

 

BFTP 

Well, the Az High did ridge NE for 240

At least we haven't been kept hanging on to hope. This has turned around so dramatically and so quickly

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I am staggered that so many people are surprised by today’s output. Why do people, some of who have been on here for years, expect cold charts in FI to come to fruition? We have had cross model support at T96 in the past, and it’s still gone wrong. It was literally a 1% chance that last night’s runs would actually happen.

 

Certainly not me, y'all know my thoughts on 2000+ uk cold

[nick sussex]

The ECM isn’t quite as bad as the GFS at day ten .

But apart from that it looks pretty ugly for cold lovers. 

No point in trying to spin tonight’s outputs as anything other than total crud . 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, Onding said:

Another low diving SE with snow over northern hills and cold rain elsewhere? Rinse and repeat. Cool zonality the form horse at the moment.

Yep......and considering FI was t120 yesterday I suggest it still is.....but absolute nirvana is more unlikely 

 

BFTP

[Mapantz]

Many posts being hidden. Keep to model discussion. If you want to moan or chat in general, head over to the appropriate thread.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Well, the Az High did ridge NE for 240

At least we haven't been kept hanging on to hope. This has turned around so dramatically and so quickly

No it’s gone E......but poor for cold

 

BFTP

[Ali1977]

From yesterday to this, the only positive I can think of is that if the charts were so wrong yesterday, why are they correct today.  Sadly they are correct more often or not when it doesn’t scream “big freeze”

[snowstorm27x]

7 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

i'm sure it will change again. Is the cold nailed in America? That usually spells the death knell to anything cold here?

As we have seen from the last 24 hours nothing is nailed. I still can't believe the huge differences in the GFS and ECM both models have not covered themselves in glory. But yh if that huge cold pool does go to the states we can kiss goodbye to any meaningful cold or snow in December. Prepare for the storms I guess.