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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm thinking some pre-Christmas ennui might be almost nailded...Day 16 being so far, far away and all that?:help:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

@sausage only a matter time before the River Thames freezes over again...time as in machine.  (Back to the Future 4 feat Marty Mcsausage)

Another cracking GFS FI there for the North especially.

anim_fxl5.gif
anim_yry3.gif

So definitely a trend on that model today for potential marginal and not so marginal snow chances over the next couple of weeks. (Will it come true though? )

The big question is though...will it snow in Carlisle!? 

Let’s see what the ECM has to say soon. 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

So from a more wintry Election Day to now some very strong winds according to the GFS.

It does have a habit of overdoing low pressure so we’d need to see whether the ECM agrees .

Towards day ten the GEFS ensembles paint a grim picture . Apart from one lonely member which survived the PV onslaught .

 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

Again...why are people getting in a sweat over the +144 UKMO chart? 

7D46A640-34A3-42F6-9866-A5BF03BD11B3.thumb.gif.71fca1975ec08b3e60602dad54c80fc6.gif
1FBF1A2D-DD91-48E2-9325-0343A982AA3A.thumb.gif.7790692d83b8f53ad2fe056283f88b02.gif

Have people read the outlook for what comes almost immediately after this...?

55998D09-CFB0-4631-B1A1-ACA99EF1F56E.thumb.png.77c191a638bf5625c4d32562360ac421.png
 

Updated at 16:00...key points...initially mild...then more likely to dip below normal temperatures...wintry showers up North...low risk of widespread snowfall on North of rain bands..frost and freezing fog.

That sounds like Winter to me. 

Sounds like the GFS to me... It’s just normal winter weather which is not what was shown 24hrs ago and why many are disappointed. 

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle
5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

@sausage only a matter time before the River Thames freezes over again...time as in machine.

Another cracking GFS FI there for the North especially.

anim_fxl5.gif
anim_yry3.gif

So definitely a trend on that model today for potential marginal and not so marginal snow chances over the next couple of weeks. (Will it come true though? )

The big question is though...will it snow in Carlisle!? 

Let’s see what the ECM has to say soon. 

Really 

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

Hoping that the ECM will suddenly be full steam ahead for cold now and then all the models will agree with that tomorrow morning? 

It has happened plenty times before where it's looking bleak and out of nowhere we're back.

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Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

Absolutely nothing to get excited about 

Any snow even in  the north will be blink and your miss it 

Northern hills may do ok 

Wintery showers don't do it for me 

Over to the ECM see what that has in store

Whens the beast coming 

Edited by Lampostwatcher
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

So from a more wintry Election Day to now some very strong winds according to the GFS.

It does have a habit of overdoing low pressure so we’d need to see whether the ECM agrees .

Towards day ten the GEFS ensembles paint a grim picture . Apart from one lonely member which survived the PV onslaught .

 

Yes, I've been looking for some more positive signals in the ensembles post-election day. The only positives I could find are a positive AO and NAO!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
4 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yes, I've been looking for some more positive signals in the ensembles post-election day. The only positives I could find are a positive AO and NAO!

The tightly coiled PV stuck to the north isn’t what we want to see and that’s putting it mildly as there’s a swear filter in here ! 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Gales and rain or gales and snow....the only 2 options for me with displaced PV....no HLB, displaced PV....it will bring disruptive weather, what we are seeing now is the South won’t get the snow but will get the gales and saturating rainfalls .. timing for me is right re occurrence.  Disruption either way, this is going to be quite some ride....and it isn’t settled in detail yet....although the ‘theme’ is.

imo yesterday is plausible and unfortunately so is today....it’s right on the edge.  What isn’t is benign very mild days.

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

So from a more wintry Election Day to now some very strong winds according to the GFS.

It does have a habit of overdoing low pressure so we’d need to see whether the ECM agrees .

Towards day ten the GEFS ensembles paint a grim picture . Apart from one lonely member which survived the PV onslaught .

 

Yes nick it's not great plus I think our flooding may return.that insipid PV to the north west is looking ominous.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, swfc said:

Yes nick it's not great plus I think our flooding may return.that insipid PV to the north west is looking ominous.

True. Not looking great if the GFS is anything to go by . We’re still some way out though so let’s hope for some changes .

 

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Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

Once you get a chart showing 40 cms snow depth for London 

In a weeks time to just disappear to heavy rain 

It's time to have a break from the mods for a week

 

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
12 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Once you get a chart showing 40 cms snow depth for London 

In a weeks time to just disappear to heavy rain 

It's time to have a break from the mods for a week

 

To be honest though mate what are the chances of that actually happening? More chance of @knocker dressing as Santa Claus and snowboarding down Cairngorm mountain.

@Tim Bland As per post above it is only December 4th though and the outlook is what you would expect - however I understand it is not looking good for the South. (Plenty of Winter left for that)

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.b20eb294adf0bc7696b37bead6dd5ce5.png

All of a sudden the profile to the NW looks really poor...(144)

Mmm, we’ve been here so many times but it’s still hard not to get taken in with great cold charts around day 8-10 only to be let down !!

It’s only early Dec though, still could get something decent late next week!!! Then who knows , Dec SSW talk has gone quiet though !! 
Looks like the States will do ok next week, for a change!!

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

Well well well, what a difference 24 hours makes...I (obviously) admit that I was wrong to be so upbeat yesterday.  I really thought that +120h was reasonably close enough to make the initial strong northerly a thing at the very least, regardless of the later promising setup, what with the UKMO being the only dissenting model of the big 3.  Not typically a good idea to be so brash when 1 model disagrees, but typically the UKMO has a poor verification score after 120h or so.

Alas, an early-winter lesson learned.  What we have now is essentially a nice brief opener to winter, with a couple of toppling northerlies which could deliver transient snow events for the north, before FI indicates a period of "cold" zonality which may be a boon to the Scottish skiing industry but not much else.

Not to be too downbeat though, even in the face of somewhat concerning LRFs, it's early days and the jet remains rather southerly tracking; it wouldn't take too much upstream amplification to deliver something akin to the eye candy produced the previous 2 days.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Just now, CreweCold said:

Is anyone genuinely surprised by the deterioration in the modelling? As I've repeatedly said, there just isn't enough forcing for a cold spell to occur. It's a sobering prospect but it is what it is.

 

I think a lot of the US would disagree......that’s some polar plunge!......again.  No wonder my lad wants to emigrate there when he can!

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Disappointing outputs for coldies today compared to yesterday but many of us have seen this over the years in operational runs.

The ens though have been pretty consistent wrt the formation of low anomalies to our north digging into Europe with week 2 850 temperatures heading for around 0-minus 3c range.

The roller coaster really has been over the different amount of ridging shown out west in the day to day operationals and this i dare say will continue for a little while yet.

It still looks colder later next week with an increasing change of snowfall further north but to it.s no good trying to pin any detail yet.

t2.thumb.png.39ba18976920fe55878989deae9df5a2.png

 

The hope is for more pronounced ridging in mid-Atlantic to at least bring in more Arctic scourced air for a short real cold snap.

I don't think we can expect anything more than that in the next 14 days as the bulk of the pv is pushed close to our north. 

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.b20eb294adf0bc7696b37bead6dd5ce5.png

All of a sudden the profile to the NW looks really poor...(144)

I think what you mean NW is that the profile looks pretty much like a normal profile, which, for us, isn`t great.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Is anyone genuinely surprised by the deterioration in the modelling? As I've repeatedly said, there just isn't enough forcing for a cold spell to occur. It's a sobering prospect but it is what it is.

 

Catacol is just posting now - hopefully with a better update on some more tropical forcing for the second half of December.

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