Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

How can something be all over when it never existed in the first place ,apart from in a computer lol

The signal/chance can be all over , as they existed!! Pretty simple, just hoping there’s a swing back of sorts towards it - ECM might hold on but unlikely. 

[SLEETY]

20 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The signal/chance can be all over , as they existed!! Pretty simple, just hoping there’s a swing back of sorts towards it - ECM might hold on but unlikely. 

So GFS isn't showing cold weather still,must be looking at a different set of charts then,too much over analysis in the model thread as usual in the winter months

[Ali1977]

14 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

So GFS isn't showing cold weather still,must be looking at a different set of charts then,too much over analysis in the model thread as usual in the winter months

No one mentioned anything ref the GFS not showing cold did they??  Still a few cold days next week, jet stream still into Southern Europe, snow for many up north. Better than mild zonal mush. 

[Chesil View]

Crikey after the last few posts I was expecting to see  uncle Barty parked up over Europe what we actually have is a GFS run from within the envelope of ensemble solutions that were on offer yesterday it just happens to be one of the less extreme ones.  When we have some likelyhood of cold/snow then unless you have a set of cliff plunge ensembles like in late nov 2010 then there will always be ebbs and flows in the nwp output on the way to whatever cold/snowy spell we get.

Edited December 4, 2019 by Broadmayne blizzard

[tinybill]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No one mentioned anything ref the GFS not showing cold did they??  Still a few cold days next week, jet stream still into Southern Europe, snow for many up north. Better than mild zonal mush. 

there  will be people  jumping of cliffs  to  day  went  to bed   with a nortly  now  the gfs has gone   the other  way  model watching  not got for youre  health!!!

[The PIT]

FI downgrade which isn't a surprise with cold pushed deeper into FI which is normally an indication that it's none starter.

[Jordan S]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Its all over folks.

Never bet against the UKMO...

Really? That's it winters over..

I Woudn't get too hung up on one set of new trends the output could switch back but a watered down version tends to be what happens with two opposing outcomes as you should well know.

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

All over? 

Anyone for Keswick? 

Use those websites at your peril, they are shocking.

Anyway, the ECM still looks good to me, surprised it’s not been mentioned. Here at 192.

 

Probably a toppler but still a decent Northerly blast at day 9

Edited December 4, 2019 by Ali1977

[That ECM]

17 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Really? That's it winters over..

I Woudn't get too hung up on one set of new trends the output could switch back but a watered down version tends to be what happens with two opposing outcomes as you should well know.

It’s still fascinating to watch this unfold. Still to close to call at this stage in terms of who may see some snow. Ukmo has stuck to its guns but is still suggesting some will unfortunately not the majority. 

 

I think we we all know he’s not referring to winter. Considering the detailed posts he often puts up we should allow a short emotional post? 

Newbies should imo look through the output and see  why it’s not as good as it once looked. Compare ukmo and ecm and gfs to help learning. It’s less stressful than just hanging on everyone’s words without being able to form your own opinion.

 

fwiw imo some will be going to the voting booths with snow underfoot.  

[northwestsnow]

EC bringing the northerly on the 12th as advertised for a few days ..

GFS for the same time.

Edited December 4, 2019 by northwestsnow

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It’s still fascinating to watch this unfold. Still to close to call at this stage in terms of who may see some snow. Ukmo has stuck to its guns but is still suggesting some will unfortunately not the majority. 

 

I think we we all know he’s not referring to winter. Considering the detailed posts he often puts up we should allow a short emotional post? 

Newbies should imo look through the output and see  why it’s not as good as it once looked. Compare ukmo and ecm and gfs to help learning. It’s less stressful than just hanging on everyone’s words without being able to form your own opinion.

 

fwiw imo some will be going to the voting booths with snow underfoot.  

yup I agree. Actually the UKMO & ECM are not that dissimilar at +144

and by D8 on the ECM you wouldn't kick that out of bed would you?

Edited December 4, 2019 by karlos1983

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC bringing the northerly on the 12th as advertised for a few days ..

That’s the 13th. Anyone can read that bit of the chart

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

That’s the 13th. Anyone can read that bit of the chart

But the northerly would be commencing on the 12th

[Mr Frost]

Morning all!

Can we bring back the laughing emoji for posts? I needed it for some on the last few pages! 

Glorious latest GFS run for Scotland - snow galore and very cold. (Plenty of potential snow events for other parts of the UK and Ireland)

Latest ECM looking good also. 


 

Definitely keeping an eye on Tuesday. 

 

Absolutely nothing to be concerned about from a cold and snow lover point of view - relax! It is December 4th! 

Have a good day everyone!

[Ali1977]

ECM at 240 similar to GFS with regards keeping the Jet stream to our south, and the Azores HP well away from where we don’t want it. And we still have LP in the Med. It’s not necessarily cold enough for snow everywhere in this flow but hills and the North still prone. 

 

The crazy charts have gone but this mornings are still pretty good for coldies. 

Edited December 4, 2019 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

Different plans for the Alaskan ridge has knock on effects in the n Atlantic 

the envelope hasn’t got any smaller after one set of runs but the idea that the middle of next week could be nationwide wintry is a fast shrinking one .... still in the game for late next week but nothing particularly crazy at the moment 

 

[Jordan S]

Gfs still showing a transient period of snow next Tuesday for northern areas of England and Scotland especially for higher ground given the marginal side to things before milder air turns this back to rain eventually. 

Gfs very consistent with this it must be noted but doesn't necessarily mean it's got the pattern right and why would it necessarily as its 6 days away and other models are more progressive with moving this through quicker which is a plausible outcome ofcourse as the jetstream will be strong by this time but colder air dragged south ahead of this system behind Sunday's low may prove a little more stubborn which would perhaps give an outcome more akin to the charts above. 

Edited December 4, 2019 by jordan smith

[Jordan S]

18 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I think we we all know he’s not referring to winter. Considering the detailed posts he often puts up we should allow a short emotional post? 

Ofcourse we do and yeah I suppose.

Edited December 4, 2019 by jordan smith

[booferking]

Someone tell Alex Deakin he can get his crayons out again and draw the jet stream in a familiar place the kingslayer strikes again the dramas.

That's my only post today until the real deal model updates again at 4pm.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye Jordan, Tuesday for a few runs now looks very wet and timed for the day, normally timings of these fronts don't change

[Ali1977]

The GFS mean for Election Day still shouts cold and snow possibilities.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

The GFS mean for Election Day still shouts cold and snow possibilities.

Yes, agreed.The northerly does look transient if i were being picky.As Blue alluded to, the Alaskan ridge being modeled differently ,not in a good way for coldies...

Lets see what the 12z runs bring- could do with a swing back to something better if i were honest.

 

 

[Skullzrulerz]

So it seems that the rogue model was right unfortunately as both ECM/GFS has moved towards it 

You would of thought overnight judging by some of the reaction we was getting mild southwest weather with a Barret for measure

So thankfully there's still a bit of time for things to change mild or cold point of view 

Also to note that most of the seasonal weather only noted that it was going to be a cold outbreak and some snow for the north and nothing more 

 

 

 

Edited December 4, 2019 by Skullzrulerz

[shaky]

Bloody hell you would think the charts are a complete downgrade this morning judging from some of the comments!!after looking at them they not that bad!!ukmo looks better than yesterday!!its more of a middle ground solution in my opinion!!

[Beanz]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Its all over folks.

Never bet against the UKMO...

How many times??